2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tips – DS

by Dave Stevos | Apr 5, 2024

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Preview

We finished last weekend with a flourish thanks to our NAP Whatcouldhavebeen. She won at 16/1, our 22/1 NB Petit King placed too. Eastern Legend showed up well for a long way before fading late on. Street Value was ridden far too aggressively and he was a spent force after 20f. With Kelso cancelled on Saturday we’ll focus on the flat. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday tips below.

1.30 Kempton – Novice Stakes (Class 2)

A tricky race to start off proceedings. The top two in the betting have a recent run under their belts and that could be a big advantage. Ethandun has also had a spin around Lingfield and it’s interesting that his trainer is persisting in novice company given he has already been awarded a mark of 72.

However, I’m going to take a chance on the Richard Hughes trained Star Pupil. He ran ok on his debut over a mile here, showing up well before fading late on. It looked like a shorter trip would suit him and he now drops back to 6f.

Zoustar

This 3yo gelding is by Zoustar, a sire with an excellent record at Kempton. Overall, he’s had 56 runners here returning 9 wins (16%) and 19 places (34%) so half of his runners at all trips have hit the frame. Over 6f, those percentages improve. He’s had 4 winners from 14 runners (28.6%) with 50% placing.

Richard Hughes’ horses are in top form (9 winners last 21 runners) and George Rooke has a winner and a third from his two rides for Hughes in the last two weeks. Now, there is a chance that Star Pupil might be more of a handicap prospect so stakes should be kept small but in the hope he’s there to do his best, a small e/w interest is advised at odds of 12/1.

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tip: Star Pupil e/w @ 12/1

2.05 Kempton – Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)

I love these Listed fillies’ races (famous last words). The vast majority of the runners in them are usually hoping to get some black type on the board and that means that most will be trying. The fav, Many Tears, won a Listed race at Dundalk on her last start for Ger Lyons so presumably, she’ll be using this as a stepping stone towards group company later in her campaign.

Choisya is rated 100 but she has yet to pick up any precious black type. This looks a great opportunity for the C&D winner and I’d imagine connections will be very keen to finish in the first three. Adelaise has gone agonisingly close to earning black type on soft ground on her last two starts. She is Joseph O’Brien’s sole runner on the card and he is 3/12 with his previous Kempton runners.

Bigger Odds

The only one at bigger odds that I can make a decent case for is Rose Prick. A rating of 92 leaves her with a bit to find with the highest rated in here but if she can repeat the form of her slightly unlucky 3L fifth in a Listed race at Chantilly last July (8f gd/sft) she may be able to sneak into the frame at odds of 20/1. The runner up (2.75L ahead) has since gone close in two G3s and the winner Thornbrook is rated 102.

Ed Walker’s filly is by No Nay Never and her dam is from the family of a Leger winner so she has a nice mix of speed and stamina in her pedigree. No Nay Never’s progeny have a decent frame hitting strike rate at Kempton (40%) so I am hoping the track might suit her.

Saffie Osborne has form figures of 1365 on this filly and she is 4/16 with 7 top 4 finishes for this owner. Hopefully she can steer Rose Prick into the e/w places here at odds of 20/1.

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tip: Rose Prick e/w @ 20/1

2.40 Kempton – Rosebery Handicap (Class 2)

We backed Cemhaan in the Ebor last year off 106. He was a no show in that heat but he ran a pleasing race here in January on his next start, finishing 5.5L fourth behind Teumessias Fox off the same mark. That was over 12f and he races over a furlong shorter today. I think he needs further than this and he’s also entered in a heritage handicap over 14f next month at Newmarket so the percentage call is to leave him alone today. Watch him piss home now!

The one I’ll take a punt on at a nice e/w price is Duc De Kent. Formerly trained in France, he is now with Ian Williams. He didn’t show much in four turf runs for his new handler in Bahrain over the winter but I thought he ran better then the result at Wolves last time under an extremely considerate Dougie Costello ride.

Badly Baulked

He was travelling well when getting badly baulked near the 2f pole and after that, Costello simply let him roll home in his own time. He was beaten 8.5L for the win and the handicapper very generously dropped him 4lbs to 90 afterwards.

Now, Ian Williams has called on William Buick to ride the son of Zelzal for the first time. He is 22/148 for the yard with a further 53 top 4 finishes. Duc De Kent had form figures of 321 on the all weather in France and his sire Zelzal is 2/9 with 4 places at Kempton. There are enough positives to warrant an e/w bet at odds of 25/1.

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tip: Duc De Kent e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NB

2.55 Curragh – Alleged Stakes (Group 3)

An interesting race but it doesn’t make much appeal from a betting perspective. Helvic Dream should love the ground and he’s fit from the jumps but he didn’t exactly look in great form at Fairyhouse a week ago. The ground looks too soft for Mashhoor and the same sentiment probably applies to Crypto Force. White Birch should love the conditions and I’d like to see him win it for John Joseph Murphy but he lacks a run and his odds of 11/4 are far too short for us. We’ll sit this one out, no bet.

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tip: No Bet

3.15 Kempton – Queen’s Prize Handicap (Class 2)

A minefield. Fourteen run and you could make some sort of case for a good few of them. After backing Duty Of Care last time at Newcastle, I have to keep the faith. Yes, he only finished sixth but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He was caught out by the race being run at a crawl and when the pace lifted, he just had too much ground to make up. However, he ran on really well all the way to the line and he looks worth persevering with here.

On his last run over this C&D he ran a huge race off 91 to finish second, despite going extremely wide. He has loads of Kempton form in the book and a lot of it is good (35112020). The second win came by 2L in March of last year off 87 and he is only 3lbs higher today. This race looks like it’ll be run at a strong pace, if Saffie Osborne can time her challenge right hopefully Duty Of Care can make amends for Newcastle. At odds of 9/1, back him e/w.

2024 Kempton & Curragh Saturday Tip: Duty Of Care e/w @ 9/1 (4 places) NAP

3.30 Chelmsford – Cardinal Conditions Stakes (Class 2)

On the evidence of Meydan and Naas last weekend, Aidan O’Brien’s horses have been needing their first runs back. Capulet is his sole representative here and Ryan Moore rides. The son of Justify is clearly the highest rated but the form of his yard has to rate as a worry, especially for an 11/10 shot.

Bergamasco beat a 104 rated O’Brien horse in a three runner race at Dundalk last time. Jack Davison’s charge is progressive and Davison himself has started the season in excellent form. This son of Capella Sansevero has now won three of his last five starts, all at Dundalk over 8f, and that last run was a clear career best by some margin.

That run earned him a mark of 99, the same rating as Cuban Tiger, a 10/3 shot here. Orne, rated 102, is just 11/2 and Davison’s charge hasn’t got to improve that much on the figures to compete with him. Now, there is a chance that his last win flattered him and maybe his rating overestimates his ability. Even so, odds of 18/1 look too big and at the prices, he is worth chancing e/w.