2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Meeting Tips – DS
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Meeting
We had a decent day on Saturday but why, oh why, did I not put Cemhaan up. I’m blaming that Newmarket handicap entry. Of course, Duc du Kent never landed a blow, he was given another ‘quiet’ run by the looks of it. Bergamasco ran with credit, as did Star Profit but they both finished fifth. However, Rose Prick placed at 20s and Duty Of Care rewarded our loyalty, hosing up in fine style. Sunday’s action comes from Dublin, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials meeting preview below.
2.20 – Ballylinch Stud ‘Red Rocks’ Stakes (Group 3)
Leopardstown will hopefully pass an inspection on Sunday morning. If racing goes ahead it’ll be proper winter heavy because the amount of rain that has fallen over here recently is almost unprecedented. Take Me To Church won on equally bad ground at Naas (7f hvy) last time, scooting home in the Birdcatcher off 86 by 7L. Jack Davison’s son of Churchill had at least a stone in hand and both of his main market rivals lack a run.
He should go well but at much bigger odds I’m siding with a horse that finished behind him last time. My Mate Alfie has been put in as the 20/1 rag here by the oddsmakers but Ger Lyons’ charge has the form in the book to suggest he’s right in the mix for this race.
Swing In Weights
He ran off 94 in the Birdcatcher and he ran okay to finish 4th, 10.5L behind the winner. He’s 8lbs better off with him here and I’d imagine Colin Keane will put in a more vigorous effort in this race than he did at Naas. It looked like a prep run to me and Lyons now applies the blinkers for what I hope is the race he has had in mind for his son of Dark Angel.
Last year this horse finished third in the Goffs Millions at the Curragh (7f sft). He was 6l behind One Look, a 10/1 shot for the Newmarket Guineas, and he was conceding 5lbs to that rival.
In another sales race at Naas he finished 2l behind the 99 rated King Cuan, to whom he was giving 8lbs. Bid For Chester (2nd in the Birdcatcher off 87) was 0.75L in front of him and he was giving him 10lbs. He’s already beaten Battle Cry, he has nothing to find with The Liffey and once he handles this ground, My Mate Alfie can hopefully make his presence felt at 20/1.
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: My Mate Alfie e/w @ 20/1
2.55 – Ballylinch Stud ‘Priory Bell’ Stakes (Group 3)
This race is a dilly of a pickle. A dozen fillies, eleven of whom have already won a race. A couple of the four Aidan O’Brien runners had busy 2yo seasons, including Cherry Blossom and Sweetest, both of whom look pretty exposed.
However, his last three winners of this race all had busy 2yo campaigns so even though Ryan Moore prefers the unexposed good ground winner Buttons, don’t be surprised if one of his other ones shows up better than her. Greenfinch, who has run well on soft to heavy, is by Justify and while his form isn’t up to much, he could improve markedly as a 3yo.
C&D Form
Mysteries, trained by Donnacha, also saw plenty of action at two and her best effort was a 4L third behind Ylang Ylang over this C&D on soft ground. Young O’Brien’s horses are in good form and while he hasn’t had a winner yet, they’ve mostly been knocking on the door.
We haven’t even mentioned the fav yet, the Paddy Twomey trained A Lilac Rolla. A dual winner at 2yo on good ground, these conditions raise massive question marks. Apheratz has no ground concerns but she looked like she’d stay further than a mile on her seasonal return at the Curragh (8f hvy). She is a lovely filly with a big future ahead of her but dropping back to 7f doesn’t look ideal.
The one I’m going to side with is Mysteries. That Ylang Ylang course and distance form looks strong and she was arguably a shade unlucky not to place in a 7f G2 at the Curragh last year behind subsequent Moyglare winner Vespertilio.
The hood she wore that day is back on, her dam was 2/2 on soft/heavy and the form figures of Donnacha’s recent runners read 2234. Hopefully Mysteries can land another place for him at odds of 20/1.
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: Mysteries e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) nb
3.30 – Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)
Only five run and it looks like an Aidan O’Brien benefit, unless Adrian Murray or Paddy Twomey can crash the party. However, with just two places on offer this has to be a no bet race. One to watch with an eye to future engagements.
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: No Bet
4.05 – 1888 Restaurant Handicap (3yo)
Another very tricky race and to be honest, I can’t really make a case for any of the bigger priced contenders. Signor Ferrari caught my eye in the Birdcatcher but surely this trip will be a step to far for him. I think he’ll win races but on pedigree he won’t have the stamina for this. There’s too many handicap debutants and too many horses that lack a recent run for my liking so we’ll be sitting this race out too. No bet.
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: No bet
4.40 – Legacy Wine Bar Handicap (50-85)
We backed Little Keilee at Lingfield just over a week ago on Bad Friday. She finished 12th of 13 but she was only beat just over 4L for the win so it wasn’t as bad a run as it looks on paper. She gets in off a pound lower here (72) and with Keithen Kennedy taking off 7lbs, she will be effectively racing off 65, 4lbs lower than when winning at Dundalk back in December and 9lbs lower when beat 1.75L there a month ago.
In the trade paper’s comments it states that ‘heavy going is a concern’ for this filly. Really? She has raced on heavy/soft to heavy ground five times and her form figures read 53341. The win came off 66 at Sligo (5.5 sft to hvy), the two thirds came off 68 at Galway (7f hvy) and 65 at Bellewstown (7.5f hvy) so with her jockey’s claim, she is definitely handicapped to be competitive.
Maybe her busy schedule will catch up with her but with conditions to suit, odds of 20/1 are too tempting to turn down. If she does run poorly, it certainly won’t be down to the ground.
2024 Leopardstown Guineas Trials Tip: Little Keilee e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) Nap
5.12 – Leopardstown Family Day Handicap (47-70)
I put Tall Story up for his seasonal return at the Curragh but like last year, it looked like he needed his first run back. It wasn’t a woeful effort, he was only 6L behind the winner, and I’m hoping that he comes on for that first run of 2024.
Last season he was beaten even further on his seasonal bow. He then bounced back to go very close over 6f at the Curragh, beat just 1.75L off 57. All of his best recent form has come at that track, including another second placed effort off 47 over a mile there last September. However, he has run some excellent races on turning tracks in the past, both over a mile on soft at Gowran and Killarney.
He sports the usual cheekpieces today and Ross O’Sullivan has booked Mikey Sheehy for the ride. Sheehy had a couple of sighters on him last season and he is 3/46 with 13 top 4s when riding for O’Sullivan. Obviously, you can’t be having too much on a 32 race maiden but at odds of 20/1, He’s worth a little go for small stakes.
