2024 Miami GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Miami GP Betting Preview.

2024 Miami GP

It was a disappointing GP for us in China. One place out with Leclerc and Alonso, while Stroll and Magnussen made expensive mistakes in the race.

After the first five races of the season we have struck 44 bets, won 17 for a total of +2.75 points. Hopefully we can improve on that this weekend.

Race six in this record breaking season comes from Miami, one of three Grand Prix to be held in the United States. It wasn’t so long ago that F1 struggled to get its foot in the door Stateside, now, they can’t get enough.

The fans will have a double hit, as this is another Sprint race weekend. Oh the joy. This will only be the third Miami GP, so there is not much past form as a guide.

The 2024 Miami GP Circuit

The three circuits used in America are a mixed bunch, and this is the worst. A temporary track, built in the car park of the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

It is supposed to have an Albert Park, faux street circuit ‘vibe’, and yes, they are both temporary, but any vibe is very corporate, very expensive, yet very tacky. Some of the corners on the track are a joke. Eleven through sixteen ruin the lap. Apart from that, it is OK.

The track’s signature feature (outside of the Mickey Mouse corners) is not one, but two long flat out ‘straights’. There are three DRS zones to aid overtaking, and if it wasn’t for the stupid complex of corners at the end of sector two, it would be half decent.

The first year saw problems with the tarmac and it is considered to be a low grip track, which as a once a year venue, is very green to start, but the grip levels improve session by session.

Quasi Street Circuit

Being a quasi street circuit, there is little room for error and mistakes can be heavily punished. Red Flags have played a part in qualifying, yellows in the race, and luck can play a big part in the results.

We have two qualifying sessions, and they can become a bit of a lottery if we get cars whacking the walls at a crucial moment and denying some cars the time for a flying lap.

With only two races here, there is not a lot of old form to go on. We had three not classifieds in 2022, but none in 2023. So far, the pole position driver has failed to win in Miami. The 2022 race saw three cars finish in the top 10 that had started from the pitlane, and the back row.

So, the car starting last, second last, and third last made the points. However Stroll’s 10th place was won after the race when Alonso was handed two time penalties, dropping him from 8th to 11th. Last year, only Hamilton came from outside the top 10 on the grid to finish in the points (6th).

Flags Make This Race

These ‘street races’ tend to rely on incidents and/or yellow flags to mix things up. If you don’t get them, the race is processional. Pure racetracks allow more for actual racing to provide the excitement. So far, we don’t really know if Miami is a Monaco, or a Baku.

A bit of late news about the weekend is that Donald Trump will not be attending. That is such a shame, it really is, but he seems to otherwise engaged in a courtroom somewhere, playing golf, or getting a spray tan. It would have been nice to see him beside the McLaren, just to compare and contrast the orange hues.

The Weather

The weather forecast is for hot and humid conditions, 28-29 degrees across all three days, and with the humidity comes a threat of showers. Friday is most likely to remain dry but the chance of showers rises to 40% for Saturday and on raceday, 65%. That would make things interesting.

Team-by Team

Red Bull

Max Verstappen has won both the previous two Miami GPs, despite not having much joy in qualifying. He qualified third in 2022 and was caught out by a late red flag in Q2 last year. He wasn’t able to set a time and started the race from ninth. His teammate had started that race from pole position but was beaten to the chequered flag by Verstappen.

Verstappen has started every Grand Prix in 2024 from pole position, and while Helmut Marko is saying that they expect the opposition to be closer this weekend, Verstappen is very hard to oppose.

Sergio Perez has racked up four podiums finishes from the first five races, but this time last year, he had picked up two wins. It was after his humiliation in Miami last year that Perez’ form went AWOL.

Ferrari 

Two podiums for Ferrari who have had their problems here. They had a front row lockout in 2022 but lost out to Verstappen, and finished second and third. In 2024 Leclerc crashed on Q2 and started tenth. Both cars finishing outside the top four.

Ferrari will be introducing some new parts this weekend, along with a new title sponsor. The team will be called Scuderia Ferrari HP. Not the sauce, but Hewlett Packard, and sporting some blue on the car and wearing blue overalls.

Upgrades

Ferrari’s big upgrade is due at the next race at Imola, but they are bringing some parts this weekend, despite it being a sprint race, and on a street circuit.

Ferrari were disappointed and surprised to be beaten by both Red Bull and Lando Norris in China. They were not alone in that. They blamed struggles with the hard tyres in the race. Ferrari also weren’t helped by their two drivers having a coming together in the Sprint race. Clearly, Carlos Sainz is not going out with a whimper.

We shall have to wait and see if the upgrades make any great difference, but having just one practice session will make judging that tricky.

McLaren

McLaren had always planned for their first major upgrade to be introduced here. They are already downplaying its significance. No doubt to stop people expecting the big performance improvement they got last year.

They had an upgrade in Austria which completely revitalised their 2023 car. The 2023 car wasn’t ready at the start of the season, and the Austrian ‘upgrade’ was in effect, the car they should have had to start with. This upgrade may just be marginal gains, rather than gaining tenths, but their performance in China was a real surprise.

Damage Limitation In China?

The team, and I, expected the Shanghai circuit to be about damage limitation. Norris qualified on pole for the sprint, but made a mistake in the first corner and dropped out of contention. He then bet his race engineer that he would finish over 30 seconds behind the two Ferraris in the race. He beat them by 10 seconds, finishing in second place.

Were Norris/McLaren strong, or did Ferrari underperform? It certainly left everyone scratching their heads. Piastri was a distant eighth after suffering damage when Stroll rear ended Ricciardo, who then hit Piastri. The young Aussie was not on the same pace as Norris, struggling once more with greater tyre degradation, but the car damage was the main reason.

Hard To Call

McLaren had been a fairly predictable performer, but China, and this weekend’s upgrade, makes them hard to call. They have not gone well here in the past, so maybe we shouldn’t expect too much.

Team boss Stella says that while the upgrades will not be as potent as last year’s, they will be noticeable and a decent step if they work as the simulations say they should. McLaren have been good in that respect, so I expect a better car.

My problem with McLaren is that they are becoming unpredictable. They disappointed in Japan, where they expected to be strong, and went very well in China, where they expected to be weak.

The fact that the team couldn’t predict the car’s performance is a bit of a worry and makes backing them with great confidence, more difficult, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

Aston Martin

Alonso finished third here last year, but he will need some luck to repeat that. Stroll was tenth in 2022, and he should be fighting for the same place this year.

Alonso is always in the fight for sixth place in 2024, but race execution has not been great at Aston Martin. The car has a tendency to be faster in qualifying than in the races. That usually comes down to tyre warm up/degradation behaviour.

With ambient temperatures set to be high this weekend, Aston Martin may lose a bit of that one lap competitiveness, and perhaps suffer with greater tyre degradation in the race.

The team say that they are working on that, but we get this every year. A team, or teams, have a car that is fast in qualifying but not in the race, or vice versa. It is rarely fixed in the same season. See Ferrari last season.

Mercedes

Have performed with consistency here for the last two years here finishing fifth and sixth and fourth and sixth, Russell beating Hamilton on both occasions.

The team are keen to take more responsibility for the set up on Hamilton’s car, indirectly blaming the driver for getting lost with endless setup changes which haven’t worked. No doubt they will hit a sweet spot at some stage of the weekend, but do they really know what they are doing?

Certainly the Mercedes-Hamilton relationship is at a very low ebb. Can Russell get the better of Hamilton once again in Miami?

Bad Car

Toto Wolff has admitted that this year’s car is a bad one, again. They will have some new parts to try and improve things, but it is hard to expect too much, given that they simply have not understood these ground effect cars. They are getting beaten by two of their customer teams, and that must be humiliating for the once dominant team.

Wolff will be having a meeting with Max Verstappen and his management team this weekend, trying to persuade the Dutchman to jump ship for 2025. Unless Mercedes can persuade Max that they have a rocket ship on the drawing board, why on earth would he want to go to the fourth best team?

Visa RB 

It all went wrong for Visa RB in China. After establishing themselves as the top division two team in the first four races, they didn’t score any points in China, both cars not finishing the race.

The bottom five teams are that closely matched, any small mistakes or a bit of bad luck will be massively punished. At least Ricciardo was going better with his new chassis, but his race was ruined by the Stroll incident. He was in with a shout of a top 10 finish before that.

Tsunoda was completely off the boil all weekend. It will be interesting to see if Riccardo can, once again, lead the team this weekend.

Ricciardo will be handicapped by having a three place grid penalty for yellow flag offences in China.

Haas

The first home race of the season for Haas. They introduced their first upgrade in China and Hulkenberg scored another point. Since then, Hulkenberg has signed up with Audi for the next three years.

The China upgrade was substantial, but did it make a great difference? It was hard to tell, but there was nothing outstanding. Maybe a couple of weeks to study the data will allow them to get more out of it. This track, with its two long straights, should suit them.

Kick F1

Suddenly very competitive in China. Bottas qualified in tenth for the Grand Prix but suffered a power unit failure and retired from the race. The team remains pointless, along with Williams and Alpine, but all three are not far off getting a top ten finish.

Their problem is that the gap between the top five teams and the bottom five is significant and the second division teams need some attrition from the top five. It is very hard to say what kind of attrition rate we can expect.

All twenty cars finished the race last year, which doesn’t bode well for the second division teams. However, a race that is likely to see yellow flags, and perhaps showers on raceday, could make for some opportunities.

Williams

The team have not scored yet, but Albon has not been that far off. He has finished 11th twice and 12th once. He just needs a bit of luck to collect, which he will at some point. Logan Sargeant will be distracted by his ‘home race’ duties, but that isn’t going make much difference. He remains the worst driver on the grid.

Alpine

This is a team that are interesting me. They started as the grid’s basket case, making the other second division cars look good. However, they are improving. There is a lot of low hanging fruit.

The car is easy to improve, because it was so bad. Being overweight was a major problem, but they have engineered that down and it is said that they can now not only meet the minimum weight but have gone under it.

That means they can place the required ballast where they want to. That helps with the cars balance, handling and even tyre wear, All good things that start a virtuous circle.

Weight Saving

The engine is still under power and that won’t change, but the weight saving alone is said to be around 2-3 kgs, which equates to 0.2-0.3 seconds. And that is a lot in a tight midfield. Ocon finished 11th in China running with an upgraded car. Gasly will have the same package this weekend. They also got both cars out of Q1 in China, so the car is heading in the right direction.

The team is badly managed, but it is a manufacturer team, it has a decent budget and some good people still working for them. They should be beating the likes of Haas, Williams, Visa RB and Kick F1.

Value

We are looking for value bets and Alpine now fall into that category. Haas and Visa RB are ‘out of the closet’ in terms of potential point scorers, but Alpine are still carrying the worst of the bunch tag, and maybe they don’t deserve that anymore?

However, like all the bottom five teams, they will need some luck. We can’t say that Miami is a circuit that could provide that luck, but it does have the potential to. Ocon has finished 8th and 9th here for the last two years. Gasly was ninth last year.

2024 Miami GP Summary

Sprint race weekends are not my favourite, there is no real rhythm to them. The old regulations did offer more interest in my opinion. The cars’ setup being ‘locked in’ after Sprint qualifying meant you could get a handle on performance for the rest of the weekend. Now, the teams are able to change it after the sprint race. That means we have two separate events in effect.

I am an old fart. I like Grand Prix racing. Practice, qualifying, Grand Prix. However the Netflix streaming, highlight watching fans of today, just want action. Wham, bang, thank you maam. It is like Test Match cricket or T20. Both have their merits I suppose. But it makes the punting more difficult.

My fear is that the current owners of F1 want to go down the T20 route. Less sport, more ‘action’ more money. Like eating your favourite meal every day, you will soon get sick of it.

Max Unbeatable?

We cannot escape the fact that Red Bull and Verstappen will not be beaten unless he crashes or the car breaks down. Neither happens with any great regularity.

He has won the last three World Championships. That covered 66 races. He won 44 of them. A 66% win rate. His 2021 Championship was the hardest fought. He only won 10 races that season, a 45% win rate. Across 2022 and 2023 his win rate was 75%. Verstappen has won four of the five races in 2024 which is 80%.

There is a pattern. Verstappen and Red Bull are getting stronger. Outright betting is dead, unless you are a money buyer, in which case, happy days.

2024 Miami GP Ante Post Selections

This weekend we have a Sprint race weekend which Verstappen will likely dominate. Qualifying may be more competitive.

The Red Bull is a little slower to heat up the front tyres, which brings the car more into the range of McLaren, Ferrari and maybe Alonso. But the fact remains he has been the fastest qualifier for the first five Grand Prix.

Lando Norris was the fastest qualifier in the last two Sprint qualifiers. China two weeks ago and the last Sprint race weekend of 2023 in Brazil. Verstappen is yet to qualify on pole in Miami.

Norris Worth A Punt

It is maybe because I’m bored of the Verstappen hegemony, but I am going to have a tilt at Norris making it a hat trick of Sprint poles. He will have an upgraded car, and while McLaren have become unpredictable, there is some logic in selecting him.

He is available at 15.00 with various firms. However, as an alternative bet, I will go for Livescorebet’s market on which car will win the Sprint Qualifying (or Shootout).

McLaren are 13.00, which means we have Piastri onside as well. He got very close to a Sprint pole in Belgium last year, so the shorter odds are worth taking, with two bullets in the gun so to speak.

2024 Miami GP Tip: 1 point McLaren to be the Sprint qualifying winning car @ 13.00 with Livescorebet

Staying with the Sprint qualifying, or shootout if you prefer, I will have a go with Alonso to beat Carlos Sainz. Alonso is well suited to the format where the drivers only have one hour to find a good set up before the timed sessions start.

Naturally gifted, he gets the most out any car quite quickly. He was third fastest in China for the shootout, Sainz was fifth. The Aston is at its best in qualifying and at the odds, he looks to offer a bit of value.

2024 Miami GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to beat Carlos Sainz (Sprint qualifying/shootout) @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes

The same firm have a Magnussen vs. Bottas match up for the Sprint shootout. The Finn beat KMag in the Chinese shootout and had a very impressive weekend, right up to his retirement.

In normal qualifying Bottas has beaten Magnussen in the last three qualifying sessions (very easily in the last two). Magnussen does struggle with qualifying in general and I’m happy to oppose him.

2024 Miami GP Tip: 1 point Bottas to beat Magnussen (Sprint qualifying/Shootout) @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes

I will have three bets for the Grand Prix proper on Sunday.

Lewis Hamilton’s love affair at Mercedes is over. He is off to Ferrari next season and he has appeared disinterested at times in 2024. The team are openly unhappy at his setup choices so far, and they are going to tell him what they want, rather than letting him direct things.

I can see that causing some friction and could open up a whole lot of blame games. A seven time World Champion being told what to do?

George Russell is just getting on with it. He has never driven a great Mercedes and doesn’t get as frustrated as Hamilton does. Lewis knows what a good car feels like and how far away the team now are. Russell is 4-1 vs. Hamilton in qualifying and 5-0 in the races. In Miami, Russell is 2-0.

2024 Miami GP Tip: 2 points George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

For much smaller stakes, I will have a couple of speculative bets on the Alpine drivers to finish in the points. Both drivers have the upgraded, lighter car this weekend and with Ocon having used it in China, they have some data to exploit which should help fine tune the changes.

Ocon is going for a hat trick of top 10s in Miami, Gasly for a double.

2024 Miami GP Tip: 0.5 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 11.00 with Livescorebet

2024 Miami GP Tip: 0.5 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @11.00 with Livescorebet

The Next update will be for Saturday’s Sprint Race.

-JamesPunt