2024 Premier League Night 4 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 4 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 4 preview.
Two Winners
Night three saw two winners from three selections, yielding a +1.50 point profit and brining the YTD tally for the Premier League to -0.85 points. Getting back into the black this evening would be nice.
The roadshow rolls into Newcastle for Night 4, a neutral venue with no home crowd favourite. That means it is likely that the crowd will gravitate towards Luke Littler, so his opponent(s) will have to put up with additional flack.
We had two more Players Championship events on Monday and Tuesday. They yielded a nice 51.00 winner, a 26.00 winner and a 17.00 runner up for my Twitter four for fun bets. Hopefully that bit of form can carry through to tonight.
Michael Smith vs. Nathan Aspinall
Michael Smith has not been on his A-game in recent matches. He won five matches in the Players Championship events, and he has won just five of his last ten matches overall.
His best average in those ten was 96.6, but more noticeably, seven matches saw sub 93 averages, so he has been consistently below his season average of 93.4. His seasonal average in 2023 was 95.8 and in 2022 was 97.0.
Asp Struggling
Nathan Aspinall has been struggling for form for a while now. There have been some signs that he is getting there, but also some more alarming signs that there is something seriously wrong. Dartitis has been mentioned, his regripping of the dart has been there for a long time and he has coped well enough.
However, his last two PL matches have seen him get off to a great start and looking every bit the winner, but his game just collapsed. Like Smith, he has lost five of his last ten (and four of his last five). His seasonal average so far is just 92.7, down from 95.8 for 2023. Again, like Smith, his 2024 form so far is not good.
His scoring has been weak and his doubling a bit patchy but it is the way his game can just switch off at a moment’s notice that is most worrying, and it seems to be getting into his head. One re-grip was all it took against MVG two weeks ago.
Tough Betting Heat
Here we have two very good players who are fighting poor form. Which doesn’t make for an easy betting choice. Who is the least worst sort of thing. Their H2H record is 12-9 to Smith, it was 4-3 in 2023, and 3-2 in the 2023 PL.
Smith is the 1.67 favourite, with Aspinall the 2.25 outsider. I suspect Smith will be able to take advantage here, but neither is in a good place form wise, and this is a match I am happy to leave alone. No bet.
2024 Premier League Night 4 Tip: No Bet
Rob Cross vs. Luke Humphries
Rob Cross has played seventeen matches in 2024, only won six, and he hasn’t won two in a row. That sounds pretty dire and it is, but not because he has lost his throw. He is just struggling to win and is getting used to losing.
His seasonal average is actually up a fraction at 97.1, so he continues to play well and lose. His confidence has gone AWOL.
Luke Humphries is coming to terms with being World Champion, perhaps playing too much, but there are signs that he is returning to form.
Since winning the World Championship, Humphries has played fourteen matches and won just six. He didn’t play in this week’s Players Championship, so he had a few days off and that is needed.
Week 3 Finalist
Cool Hand reached the final last week, losing 5-6 to MVG, but he averaged over a ton in all three matches, and he looked much more like the player who cleaned up in the latter part of 2023.
Despite having that post World Championship hangover, Humphries is averaging 101.7 so far this year, actually better than he was doing in 2023, so he is still right on his game.
H2H Dead Level
Their H2H record is 7-7. Humphries has won their last three in a row, and won quite comfortably. He is the 1.48 favourite, with Cross 2.75.
With both players scoring well, you would think that we should have a close match and it may turn out that way, but Humphries will be feeling more confident having hit ton plus averages in his last five Premier league matches.
If he can get off the line fast, he could knock Cross’ fragile confidence early and get another comfortable win.
2024 Premier League Night 4 Tip: 1 point Humphries to win -1.5 legs @ 1.75 generally available
Peter Wright vs. Luke Littler
A couple of weeks ago, this match would have been a simple pick up for Littler. However, there have been signs that Wright is returning to some kind of form, and signs that Littler might be dropping his form to some degree.
Littler is the most watched, talked about and perhaps a little overhyped player of the moment. Every one of his games is under the microscope and too much is made of a loss or two, it is inevitable that he has bad runs.
Wright Improving
Peter Wright now has a 2023 win rate of 62%, his seasonal average went up this week for the first time in a long time, and he reached a quarter and semi-final in the two Players Championship events earlier this week.
He is still some way off his best, but winning matches is what it is all about, and he has won eight of his last ten. He will be feeling so much more confident than he was, even just a couple of weeks ago. On the negative side, he is 0-3 in the PL and on TV he is 2-6 in 2024. Surely that will improve as his confidence returns? A win against the Boy Wonder would help.
Busy Littler
Littler has a seasonal win rate of 76%, is averaging 98.4 and has won seven of his last ten matches. However, his scoring has dropped a little in the last week or two and he has lost a few matches.
He has continued to play in just about everything. This week he has already played six Players Championship matches, losing two, and five Euro Tour qualifiers, losing one.
He has played thirty seven matches already in 2024 and we are not even into March yet. He qualified for ET4 in Wednesday afternoon’s qualifier, and his last three matches went to a deciding leg. Littler must be draining the batteries a bit.
Too Many Matches?
There is nothing alarming in Littler’s game, but he might, only might, be playing too many matches before going into battle in these big Premier League nights. He is young and no doubt has a bit more energy than the likes of Wright, but he can still get a bit stale.
These two have not yet met, so there is no H2H form as a guide. Littler is the 1.29 favourite, Wright 4.00 and the money is going down on Wright. Is he a value bet? I think so, but not to more than minimum stakes.
His return to form is in its infancy, but he has nothing to lose here. Littler is expected to win and Wright may have already given up on any hopes of having a good PL campaign. He can just use it as a very high level practice school.
2024 Premier League Night 4 Tip: 0.5 point Peter Wright to win @ 4.00 generally available
Gerwyn Price vs. Michael van Gerwen
MVG tops the table after winning Nights 2 and 3. His 2024 win rate is an impressive 79% and while he has had to work very hard for some of his wins, he is winning plenty and remains in great form.
Van Gerwen won seven from nine at the Players Championship events this week but he got a 0-6 thrashing from Chris Dobey on Tuesday. That was a bit weird, coming on the back of two ton plus averages in the first two rounds. MVG has won eight of his last ten matches.
Hot And Cold Iceman
Gerwyn Price won Night 1, in Cardiff, but has won just the one PL match in the last two nights. He played both days in the Players Championship this week and blew hot and cold. He won four from six, hit a couple of ton plus averages, but lost 4-6 to Christian Perez on Tuesday and 3-6 to Steve Lennon on Monday.
Price continues to baffle and confuse by playing some magnificent stuff and then throwing in a substandard performance. There is more good than bad, but he remains a bit of a high risk betting proposition.
Their H2H record is 31 -14 to MVG, but in 2023 it was 6-4 to Price, which may be more relevant. MVG did win their last two meetings, but amazingly, they have not played each other since last May. It was 4-3 to MVG in last year’s PL. They met in the final here last year, and it was Price who won 6-1, averaging 114! Van Gerwen got his revenge by beating Price 11-5 in the overall final.
MVG The Fav
MVG is the 1.73 favourite, Price 2.20.
Three of their six best of eleven leg PL matches in 2023 went to a deciding leg. In the 2022 PL, it was 4-1 to Price and he won three 6-5. Over the first two years of this PL format, they have played eleven best of eleven leg matches, and Price won five 6-5. Seven had over 9.5 leg matches.
I am leaning towards a small bet on Price to continue his habit of beating MVG 6-5, but over 9.5 legs is also attractive, with the safety net of allowing either player to win 6-5 or 6-4.
