2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday preview and tips. You can check out his outright betting, team by team preview and tips here.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday

The misery continued yesterday. We got Russell to beat Leclerc, but I picked the wrong outsider to jump the McLarens, with Russell missing out on pole by 0.113, and 0.103 off second place. Of course, Gasly finished 0.163 behind Tsunoda. Our pre-season bet on Norris still has a long way to go of course, but he is doing his best to lose that.

We are on Piastri to win today and history is against him. The pole sitter has a 75% strike rate here, despite the fact that we have had so many safety cars. The pole sitter has won the first four races of this season.

The McLaren is the best car, but in traffic, that advantage is negated. Piastri cannot afford to get stuck behind Verstappen. The driver starting second has never won here and only once held on to second place, so the omens for Piastri are not good, but records are there to be broken.

Dirty Track

One reason for the driver starting second is that they have to start on the dirty, dusty side of the track. It is more difficult to get a good launch off the line. Verstappen is very likely to get the jump into the first corner and then try and take advantage of clean air.

Overtaking is difficult here and it might be that the pitstop/s will be the best opportunity for positions to change.

The history of this race does not get the blood pumping. The drivers in the top 10 on the grid tend to finish in the top ten. Only the driver in 15th place on the grid has managed to finish in the points every time. The eleventh placed driver has done it three times, but that is hardly a surprise.

Safety Car

A safety car deployment has happened at least once every year here and that can mix things up, but that has not been the case. Last year, Lance Stroll’s lap six crash just meant that seventeen cars pitted for hards and that was that for them all the way to the finish.

It can make it more difficult for the driver who is leading as the field bunches back up and then they have to start all over again, but the fact is, if you are at the front of the pack, you hold the aces. Even in a faster car, Piastri is far from assured to win the race from second place.

Verstappen will not have the same scenario as he had in Japan. The partially resurfaced track and low temperatures meant tyre degradation was very low, removing McLaren’s biggest advantage.

Tonight the track will still be in the mid 30s, so degradation should be greater than in Japan, but the emphasis is on should.

The Pirelli tyres have proven to be very durable in 2025, going much further than anyone expected. However, they have brought softer compounds this year, to try and make a two stopper more likely. If degradation is an issue, then that plays to McLaren’s strengths, but safety cars can allow for cheap stops for fresh rubber and that can again negate that advantage.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Team by Team

Red Bull 

Verstappen’s race to lose? He definitely holds the best cards now. He can control the race from the front as any speed advantage the McLaren has is negated by Verstappen having the clean air. Tsunoda is down in eighth place and will just be driving his own race to try to get some points.

McLaren 

The disappointment was palpable in the McLaren camp. They know that they are on the back foot now. Norris is out of the race for the win, and he will do well to make a podium, while Piastri will either have to overtake Verstappen, very hard, or hope to beat him on strategy. Red Bull vs. McLaren on strategy? There is only one winner in that battle.

Mercedes 

Russell is the most predictable driver at the front these days. He has a very predictable, reliable car and he can make the most of it. The problem is that it is not as quick as the McLaren and he will always find himself racing in dirty air. His target will be another podium finish and he should do just that. Antonelli did a good job yesterday and starting on the ‘clean’ side of the grid, he might be able to jump Leclerc off the line.

Ferrari 

Leclerc maxed out and could only manage fourth in qualifying. I would say that is as good as it can get for him unless events move things his way. Hamilton’s qualifying woes continued and he starts seventh, but that is a little better than I expected. He should have slightly better race pace and I doubt that Sainz will put up much of a fight against him this weekend. Fifth would be a great result.

Williams 

It was a better effort from Sainz as he gets more at home at Williams, while Albon missed out on Q3 for the second race in a row. Points are likely from eleventh, but we saw him get stuck in traffic last weekend and that was on a track were overtaking was easier.

Sainz is in a good position to be ‘best of the rest’ with Gasly three places behind. Sainz says that he learned from last weekend. He tried to race with Tsunoda and Hamilton. That just meant burning through his tyres and dropping back from sixth into traffic and eventual retirement with battle damage.

He will just look to score points and I think he sees that as finishing behind Hamilton, Tsunoda and Norris. That means he could still find himself fighting with Gasly.

Alpine 

Gasly will probably be a bit disappointed with ninth on the grid. He looked like he was good for a place or two better. He hasn’t been great at making much forward progress in races so far and he has two faster cars behind him. Points are going to be hard won. Doohan starts way back in seventeenth and he is yet to finish better than fifteenth so far.

Racing Bulls 

Lawson was their leading qualifier and that is not a good sign. He hasn’t improved on his grid position in the last two races for them. He looks like he may drop a couple of places. Hadjar had his worst qualifying of the year and his race pace has not been great so far. The car just hasn’t looked much good this weekend.

Aston Martin 

Alonso is almost as dependable as Russell is at the front. He got his fourth straight thirteenth place in qualifying. He will do well to improve on it in the race. Lance Stroll failed to get out of Q3 again and set the record for the driver with the most Q1 exits in F1. And his dad has built an F1 team to make him world champion. Good luck with that.

Haas 

The good news is that Bearman has qualified in fifteenth place and that grid position has a 100% record of finishing in the points in Jeddah. The bad news is that I picked Ocon and he is back in nineteenth place.

The Haas is a poor qualifier, but a better race car. They have made up more places in races than any other team. Of course, that is partly due to being so crap in qualifying, but I am clutching at straws here.

Ocon has made up an average of four places in the races so far, so he is well out of it, unless something mental happens. Bearman is making up over 4.5 places per race and he is not out of the frame for points. He has finished tenth in the last three races and, of course, finished in the points on debut last year.

Sauber 

The reverse of Haas when it comes to race pace. Their car is ultra-sensitive to dirty air and they drop like stones, should they manage a good grid slot.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Summary

I find this place hard to crack. It confuses me. It is the spiritual home of the safety car, but it produces rather dull races. It is very fast, with the chance for big, red flag causing smashes, but the order at the front rarely changes. It is illogical.

Maybe we are due a crazy one. When you consider the other fast street circuit, Baku, it is positively bonkers. This place should be madder, but it tends towards the dull.

We have two points on Piastri at 2.40. he starts as the 2.10 favourite, so the market thinks he will win. I am not so sure but clearly, he is in with a chance, a decent chance. Fingers crossed.

The other ante post bet is Ocon for points, but his track record has counted for nothing. His teammate, on the other hand, has become Mr. Tenth place. He is a good racer and his car is better over a race distance. I will back him to continue the amazing record of fifteenth place in Jeddah.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to finish in the points @ 4.50 generally available

George Russell is three from four in terms of podium finishes in 2025. The Mercedes’ long run pace on Friday was actually very good and so long as he keeps out of trouble and we have a reasonably sensible race he can get another.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish on the podium @ 2.00 with Betfair, Skybet

Lance Stroll may have set the most unwelcome record in F1 yesterday, but he starts from sixteenth place, better than for the last two races. He is not in the hunt for points but he looks a bit of value to win Fitzdares Group 4.

In that group he is up against Jack Doohan in the Alpine, who starts one place back in seventeenth, and the two Saubers who start eighteenth and twentieth. Stroll is on the wrong side of the track but so far back it is not quite so bad, as the cars in front will have cleaned the track somewhat. He is a good starter on the whole.  

The two Saubers are slow and very poor in traffic. Stroll is not a banker bet, but he starts at the front of the group, against poor opposition and is 4.00. I think that Doohan is too short and Lance is worth a bet.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Group 4 @ 4.00 with Fitzdares

The final bet is on Carlos Sainz to be ‘best of the rest’. That is the leading driver not in a McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari. He starts sixth, three places ahead of Gasly in the Alpine, his nearest competitor in the market.

Sainz hasn’t covered himself in glory so far for Williams and not crossed the line any higher than thirteenth. But he is starting sixth, knows that he will fall back and he knows not to fight losing battles.

His job is to get a points finish and he understands that. He knows his way around this track and can extend his 100% points finish record. Gasly could be a threat, but this is Sainz’ to lose. Hopefully he won’t.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to be best of the rest @ 2.75 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt