2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview
Long time friend of the blog Run To Freedom got a deserved win in the Abernant at Newmarket on Thursday, advised by Dave Stevos at 33/1. On Saturday we have stakes action on the Flat at Newbury and the Scottish Grand National. Dave’s 2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday tips are below.
1.10 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier)
If the weather forecast is correct, the ground will be on the soft side at Ayr on Saturday. First up we have this premier handicap chase and with ground to suit, Classic Maestro might rebound from a below par run here 42 days ago.
We backed this son of Jet Away when he finished second behind Jax Junior at Sandown (2m, soft) earlier this season. He was beaten just over 4l off 130 in that contest and he has only run twice since. On his next start he was out of his depth in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase and pulled up. Then, last time at this venue, he was beaten 14l over 20.5f on soft, a trip that stretches his stamina.
Jennie Candlish’s charge showed up well for a long way in that contest and this shorter trip will suit him much better. It was a lesser race than this too, with just under 10k going to the winner and I have a sneaky feeling the 42k on offer to the winner here might elicit a better performance. He’s effectively 3lb wrong here but his rider’s claim offsets that and the visor is an interesting addition. At odds of 25/1, Classic Maestro is the e/w selection.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Classic Maestro e/w @ 25/1
1.25 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Group 3)
I love a good pedigree and Splish Splash is the one I am interested in here. By the top class Wootton Bassett, this filly is trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, a trainer who has done us plenty of turns over the years.
She is out of Skitter Scatter, a top drawer 2yo for John Oxx who didn’t hit the same heights as a 3yo. The talk at the time was that she didn’t really develop physically but I am hoping the Wootton Bassett influence ensures that her daughter has trained on.
With a rating of 87, Splish Splash will have to improve on paper to win this. She got off the mark at the third attempt in maidens last season, winning over 6f at Haydock, but she then ran a massive race to nick some precious black type in the listed Bosra Sham at Newmarket, where she finished 1.75l behind Azleet, who won the Nell Gwyn at HQ on Wednesday.
Her dam Skitter Scatter won over 7f, as did her dam’s half sister Victory Dance, so there is every chance she’ll stay this trip on breeding. Her fitness has to be taken on trust but that’s the case with most of these and it is encouraging that Johnson-Houghton has had a couple of first time out winners in the past fortnight. At odds of 25/1, Splish Splash is the each way selection.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Splish Splash e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
1.45 Ayr – CPMS Novices’ Champions Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Some horses seem to relish certain tracks and it is fair to say that Ayiko is a big Ayr fan. The Northern Irish raider has run here three times and on the two occasions he got soft ground, he won. He landed a bumper in December 2023 over 2m and then in January he added a maiden hurdle over today’s trip of 3m.
So far, his chasing career hasn’t really taken flight but his run at Haydock on his chase debut in December and his second run over fences at Carlisle in February suggested he can make an impact in this sphere.
Now, he has run poorly on his last two starts but those runs came on right-handed tracks and he has never won going that way round. Hopefully he can bounce back and at odds of 25/1, it is worth chancing that he does under the excellent Danny Mullins.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Ayiko e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) nb
2.00 Newbury – Greenham Stakes (Group 3)
A cracking renewal of the Greenham. At the top of the market is the son of Without Parole Zavateri, one of the stories of last season. A winner of four of his five starts last year, including when lowering the colours of Gstaad in the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh, he is the one to beat if he is ready to rock after his break.
Albert Einstein is next best in the betting but he needs to bounce back from a Big Gossey humbling on his seasonal return at the Curragh three weeks ago and O’Brien has reached for a hood now. The drop back to 7f is a concern for the third favourite Title Role, so there might be scope for an outsider to sneak into the places here.
Bigger Odds
The one that makes most appeal at bigger odds is Ardisia. Hugo Palmer has started the season really well and this son of Ardad is actually rated higher than Title Role and just 1lb inferior to Albert Einstein so he is entitled to be in the shake up on the figures.
The booking of Oisin Murphy is a plus and he got a great tune out of this gelding when third on him in a valuable sales race at York last August. On his next start he added a listed heat at Redcar and then was narrowly denied by the 110 rated Mission Control in a class 2 conditions race at Ascot on his next start.
On his final start at Del Mar at the Breeders’ Cup he could only manage 7th on his first run at beyond 6f but it was a much better run than his finishing position suggests. He was a step slow away and met all sorts of trouble in running and on another day, he may have finished a whole lot closer. Odds of 18/1 look far too big to me and if he’s fit, he’s capable of hitting the frame here.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Ardisia e/w @ 18/1
2.20 Ayr – Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
As a committed Sandy Thomson afficionado I was tempted by Dedicated Hero here but he’s wrong at the weights and effectively 10lb higher than when winning an ordinary race at Kelso 16 days ago. It’s a busy day and nothing else leaps off the page in this race so we’ll leave it alone. No bet.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No bet
2.35 Newbury – Finest Surprise Stakes (Group 3)
Just the seven run here and to be honest, I can see the market leaders coming to the fore. Bellum Justum won for us at Epsom a couple of seasons ago but he needed his seasonal return last year and the percentage call is to leave him alone on this occasion. Another no bet race.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.10 Newbury – Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2)
A nice and easy puzzle to solve with just the 26 runners. After much deliberation, the one I eventually came down on was Cogitate. Trained by Charlie Hills, this course winner scored just once last season, off 83 over 1m at Salisbury. He was knocking on the door off his revised mark on the AW in the Autumn and he ran a cracker at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance last month.
That was over 7f and it should have blown away any cobwebs. Last year, he took his chance in this race on his first run back and was far from disgraced, beaten under 6l off a mark of 87 when clearly a touch rusty after his break. This time, Hills has given him a prep run so he will hopefully be much sharper on this occasion.
Saffie Osborne takes the ride and she is 5/47 with another 20 top 4 finishes when riding for Hills. He’s got a handy draw in stall 3 and while luck will be required given he’ll be dropped out and produced late, at odds of 20/1 Cogitate looks well worth backing each way.
2026 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Cogitate e/w @ 20/1 (6 places) NAP
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier)
We managed to land a bad place with Flash De Touzaine who was sixth in this last year at 25s. Can we repeat the trick or perhaps go five places better? It’s a stamina sapping affair, especially when the ground is soft, and the one that could outrun his odds on his favoured ground is the Nicky Richards’ trained Famous Bridge.
It is fair to say that he hasn’t hit top form yet this term but I would guess that his season has been tailored towards this race. Yes, he ran poorly when pulled up in it last year but the ground was too fast and he should be much more comfortable this time around.
He’s won twice at 25.5f, both on soft at Haydock and he was still travelling well when unseating at the 17th fence in the 3m4f Grand National Trial at that venue in February 2024. He made amends in that race last February, staying on strongly to score by around 3l but was subsequently disqualified after a positive test for a banned substance.
After his poor runs this term his mark has slipped to 132, 6lb lower than he was at Haydock when winning the National Trial, so he pitches up here looking like a well handicapped horse. He has won here over hurdles, his trainer knows what it takes to win this race and once the ground is soft, he is capable of running a huge race at odds of 33/1.
