2026 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying Preview

The practice sessions are done and dusted, now we get down to the serious business in Baku. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Azerbaijan GP qualifying preview and tips below. You can read his outright preview here.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying

First up, the two ante-post bets are cooked. Backing Norris was a mistake. I had hoped that they would be good on the corner rich part of the track, and that their upgrade would address their straight-line deficit. But it hasn’t and outside of sector one, the car is dog slow. Fourth best. Lawson and Racing Bulls started the weekend well, but they have fallen off a cliff since FP1. 7th and 8th, to 18th and 19th in FP3. Bizarre.

Onto today’s qualifying session. Its either going to be a Merecedes pole, and probably Russell, or a lottery.

Mercedes Quickest

The Mercedes is the fastest car this weekend, by a comfortable margin, but just like Monza, they can be beaten by another car that gets the perfect tow down the very long finish straight. Getting a good tow is worth around 0.4 seconds and that brings in the likes of Verstappen, Ferrari and who knows who else. Nobody saw Gasly getting pole in Monza, he was 9th in FP3 and never in the frame, until Alpine manged their two cars to give him the perfect tow, and he beat Russell to pole by 0.06s seconds.

For the record, Gasly was 6th fastest in FP3 and 0.715 off fastest man Verstappen.

Tow Power

This weekend, everyone is wise to the power of the tow and everyone will be trying to pull it off. If they all succeed, Mercedes get pole. But pulling it off perfectly is the trick. It also makes trying to pick the winner very hard. Logic says Mercedes should be on pole, but even they need to get a good tow. They are not nailed on.

Verstappen is driving a kangaroo this weekend, but a fast one. As usual, free practice has just been an exercise in him complaining about how bad the car is to drive, but he ended up fastest, if only by 0.099s ahead of Russell. Hamilton was 0.111s behind Verstappen.

Leclerc has the potential for another pole here, but there is no firm news about whether he is taking an engine penalty yet. Ferrari did break curfew last night but denied it was for an engine change……honest guv.

Your Turn Policy

Ferrari now operate a stupid ‘your turn’ driver priority system. One week its Leclerc, the next, Hamilton. Who is going to give the tow, and who is getting the tow this weekend. I believe it is Hamilton’s turn to be the lead driver this weekend, which is another reason to give Leclerc a new PU and take a penalty.

Ferrari have not yet scored a pole position in 2026, but they have a chance here, if they can organise a team tow. Piss ups and breweries are springing to mind…., but they could just get lucky and get a tow from a random driver.

Verstappen is in the same boat, no pole in 2026, but in Hadjar, they have a compliant number 2 driver and they did pull it off at Spa and got Verstappen on the front row.

Russell Fav

Russell is the 2.63 favourite, Antonelli 3.25, Verstappen 4.00 (but all win only). Norris is 13.00, and I don’t know why, even with a tow they are too slow. Leclerc is 15.00, Hamilton 17.00, and Piastri 34.00. Piastri did get a good tow at Monza and from being well off the pace in practice, ended up 3rd.

It is all a bit of a pickle. Mercedes have the fastest car and if they can decide who tows who, and pull it off, should be on pole. Antonelli was getting a penalty at Monza, and he was given the job as the tower. This weekend? I can’t see him doing it again. But I can’t see Russell volunteering to help Antonelli either.

You can go for a Mercedes to be on pole at 1.50, but those are poor odds. They could get mugged here, like they did in Monza.

Value Bet

I am looking for a value bet ‘outsider’ who is capable of a top three and might pull off a great tow and nick pole.

Charles Leclerc is mustard in qualifying here, if he doesn’t crash. However, I am worried that he is going to take a new PU and be given the job of helping Hamilton.

Hamilton has had six top three placings in qualifying in 2026 and at 17.00, he is a value outsider. Ferrari will likely find a way to screw it up, but I am prepared to throw something at him. His combined best sectors put him 3rd, behind Verstappen and Russell. Verstappen is tempting at 4.00, but that’s win only and the value is marginal.

Anyone from back in the back? They are all huge prices. Gasly is 1001.00 to repeat his miracle of Monza, as is every driver outside of the big four teams. Gasly was 0.7 seconds off the pace in FP3 and I think that was with a tow, so he may not have much more to come. But 1001.00….

2026 Azerbaijan GP qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w Lewis Hamilton to be the fastest qualifier @ 17.00 with Boylesports, Hills, BET365 (e/w 1-3 1/5 the odds)

I was hoping to get decent odds for Perez to make Q2 for the first time in 2026, but 1.73 isn’t a good price.

That is enough for me in what looks to be a bit of a crap shoot.

-JamesPunt