2026 Bahrain GP Betting Preview

The F1 roadshow rumbles on this weekend. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Bahrain GP betting preview and tips below.

2026 Bahrain GP

The Azerbaijan GP was an exciting race, it usually is, but it wasn’t profitable. Two points lost overall and yet again it was a bet losing by a fraction of a second that turned a profit into a loss. Last week it was Ocon losing the group bet when passed, pretty much on the finishing line, by Lindblad. It was a 0.07 second margin, and that on the back of a 0.01 second losing margin in Madrid, and a 0.06s losing margin at Monza. It is getting annoying.

Especially as Lindblad had caused a collision at the same corner as Colapinto’s misdemeanour. Lindblad hit his own teammate and dropped him back, but he got away without any punishment. Colapinto got a 10 second penalty (later converted into a 5 place grid penalty for this weekend), Lindblad got nothing and went on to finish 7th. Consistency in stewarding? Not last week.

Malaysia

This week we head to Malaysia for the 2026 Bahrain GP. The Bahraini government is stumping up the cash to hold their GP at the Sepang circuit. F1 raced in Malaysia from 1999 to 2017. It was a purpose built racetrack and much loved by the drivers for its layout, if not for the physical conditions. The attendance levels gradually fell away and the local government were not willing to meet the hosting fees anymore.

Malaysia is a tropical climate and that means it is hot and very humid. It is the toughest test of a driver’s physical fitness on the calendar. The climate also means the race weekend is prone to tropical down pours. As the heat builds, the humid air rises, condenses and falls as heavy rain. Landing on a hot track means the water evaporates quite quickly, but the sheer volume of rain can make the conditions un-raceable.

2026 Bahrain GP: The Track

As a purpose-built circuit, it has a bit of everything. Two long straights, two hairpin turns, a slow left-right complex, three short duration corners and six fast flowing long duration corners. It is hard to know which car it will suit. Mercedes are strong everywhere and should go well. McLaren will love the fast, flowing corners, but not the straights and so on.

Will the track be energy rich, or energy poor? The two long straights will be battery drainers, but not as bad as in Baku. The cars should arrive on the straights fully charged and both end with a heavy braking event to recharge. There will be some super clipping at the end of each, but the rest of the lap looks to have enough braking events to keep the cars juiced up well enough, but we will have to wait and see.

Fun To Drive

Carlos Sainz seems to believe that it will be ok, and the track should be fun to drive. Williams predict that Sepang will be around average in the energy management demands of 2026 circuits, somewhere akin to Canada and Austria.

Others disagree, saying that the fast corners will be neutered. Norris thinks it will be more like Monza, with lots of YO-YO racing. Antonelli believes that tyre degradation will be high, and maybe even a three stopper. The track was recently resurfaced and that in itself can make things interesting.

The circuit is set to have four straight mode zones. The start/finish straight, the back straight, the run out of Turn 3 to the Turn 4 right-hander and the run out of the Turn 8 right-hander.

Having not raced here since 2017, the teams are coming here light on relevant data. There is much to learn in free practice, much like in Madrid. And that goes for the punters, as well as the teams.

Development Wars

We are probably getting to the end of the big upgrades for 2026. Some of the teams are saying that they will continue to bring developments to their cars, as there is a strong carry through with next year’s regulations, so it is more like a continuous development program, cost cap permitting. It is the cost cap that will mean that big upgrades are less likely, but there will still be new parts to improve performance.

Ferrari are hinting at more to come, but not this weekend. However, Mercedes will have a significant upgrade for a car that is already 160 points clear of second placed Ferrari. Antonelli leads the drivers’ championship by 66 points from George Russell.

Last Week

Last week saw upgrades for Red Bull, McLaren, Audi and Williams. All the teams said the upgrades worked as planned, but that wasn’t apparent in the results for some of those teams.

Audi were slower. McLaren were just not suited by the track, so the upgrade failed to improve their straight line deficit. Williams scored a point and got a car into Q3, so it worked, but Albon crashed out after his car ‘cocked a leg’ and crashed. This is an old problem with that car and clearly the upgraded car wasn’t a total success.

Improved Red Bull

Red Bull were improved and got their first double podium finish of the season. It was still ‘like driving a kangaroo’ according to Verstappen, but he still nearly won the race and Hadjar got his second podium of the season. It was a good race car, but still slower than the Mercedes, certainly over a lap.

Verstappen loves the track and is on a mission to win a race in 2026. He is one of the few drivers to have driven one of these cars in the wet, but that was way back, at a very cold Barcelona in February. He has proved to be a very good wet weather racer, and maybe some rain will improve his chances.

2026 Bahrain GP: The Weather

It is a bit futile trying to predict the weather outside of saying it will be hot and humid. It will rain, but when is the question? We could get a another dry race, we could get a deluge. Rain is in the forecast for every afternoon, but especially on Friday and Saturday. But as always here, the showers are scattered and very hit and miss.

Driver Records

With F1 having last raced here in 2017, many drivers will not have raced here, but the ‘oldies’ will have and they know what to expect in terms of the physical challenge.

Fernando Alonso won here in 2005, 2007 and 2012 and has had two pole positions. Lewis Hamilton won in 2014 and has had five pole positions. Max Verstappen won in 2017. Perez was second in 2018, Hulkenberg has five top 10s, Bottas three top fives. Sainz, Ocon, Stroll and Gasly have all had a least one race here, but we have twelve track virgins this weekend, including Norris, Leclerc, and Russell.

2026 Bahrain GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

George Russell got pole, fastest lap and led from start to finish in Azerbaijan. It was the biggest qualifying winning margin in 2026, but the smallest race winning margin. That was partly down to safety cars and VSCs bunching the field, but there was no doubt that the Red Bulls race pace was right up with Mercedes.

We have to expect their upgraded car to be faster, which is a bit disappointing. We could have had some close races, with different winners until the end of the season, but we may get another period of Mercedes domination.

George Russell is due for a power unit change and a grid penalty as a result. Will he take it here? We won’t know until nearer race day. There current car would have been quick here, maybe not the quickest, and we saw just have to wait and see how they go in practice.

Ferrari

Very ordinary in Baku. Leclerc got a good tow to qualify second, but in the race they went backwards due to a lack of straight-line speed. The drivers are getting frustrated by a lack of upgrades and they have fallen behind Red Bull and McLaren.

Fred Vassuer says that the chassis advantage they had after the Barcelona upgrade has gone, and of course their early season fast start advantage has also gone. Another season is spluttering to a disappointing conclusion. Hamilton, with eleven races under his belt here, might have the edge over Leclerc this weekend, and it must be his turn to be their ‘number 1’.

Leclerc is another driver who is due to take a grid penalty when he takes a new power unit. It was thought that Baku would have been a likely place to do it, but the team decided not to. It makes backing him ante-post risky.

McLaren

It was the same old story for McLaren last weekend. Just too slow on the straights. They also had problems with reliability in practice and it was a messy weekend. Norris got punted out of the race, and Piastri, having run second for a long time, locked up under braking into T1 and ended up trailing home a disappointing 13th.

The good news for McLaren is that there more in the way of long duration, faster, flowing corners here. The two straights are going to be a challenge for them, but they can make up for that elsewhere. Last weekend saw them fastest in S1, but then getting slower in the short corners, and really struggling on the very long straight. I would expect them to be more competitive this weekend, but where in the pecking order? That is hard to say.

Norris doesn’t sound very enthusiastic about their chances.

Red Bull

Is it time for Red Bull to shine? We have seen Mercedes dominate the first half of the season. Ferrari then won a couple of races and looked good. They got jumped by the McLaren upgrade and it was the orange cars who bagged a couple of wins and three poles to threaten a strong finish to the season, but one podium in the last three races has popped their balloon.

Red Bull got an upgrade at Baku and their race pace was very good. Verstappen had car problems in qualifying, and a yellow flag on his final run, so we don’t really know if the one lap pace is there, but Max finished a very close second having started from 8th place. Hadjar was strong all weekend and that bodes well for their chances here. Verstappen says that Baku probably favoured their car more than most, so a double podium here would be less likely.

Underlying Issues

Verstappen said that the upgrades made the car feel better but that there are still underlying issues that need fixing, and if they can be fixed, there is more performance to be had.

It may well be that it is now Red Bull’s turn to be Mercedes biggest challenger. Unfortunately, they might do so just as Mercedes take a step forward with their own upgrade.

Verstappen took on a lot of new power unit components after his struggles in qualifying last week. He has now used up his four unit quota, so any more changes and he would get a penalty, but at least he has a pretty fresh set up for this weekend.

Hadjar will take a 5-place grid penalty but says that on this track, it isn’t a big problem, and he should make the places back up.

Racing Bulls

Struggled in Baku, but Lindblad was able to come through to finish 7th after starting 15th. There was a bit of luck involved, but it was odd that they had looked very ordinary in Baku. It may be that they have been closed on by others upgrades. I would hold fire before backing them this weekend. Practice will tell us if Baku was a track specific blip, or they have dropped back. Neither driver has driven an F1 car here before.

The team have said that Lindblad will get a new power unit and will start the race at the back of the grid.

Alpine

Gasly was good in Baku, and the team were on for a double points finish before Colapinto really screwed up at one of the race restarts. It happens into T1 a lot in Baku, but to have a massive lock up and to take out your teammate is unforgivable.

If Alpine finish behind Racing Bulls by a few points, Colapinto will have cost his team many millions of dollars. He will be under a cloud this weekend and will have a five-place grid penalty to serve for causing a collision in Baku.

Gasly raced here in 2017 so he will know that this is going to be a tough weekend. The car is a decent all-rounder and they should be back in the hunt for more points this weekend.

Haas

Had a very strong Baku weekend. Scoring points with both cars, and that ended an eight race pointless streak. They had some new parts and the new Ferrari PUs, but it was hard to see them picking up six points. Of course, they were helped by the two Alpines and Norris being taken out of the race by Colapinto, but they look more competitive. A repeat of last weekend’s results may be difficult, however.

Audi

Turned up to Baku with a lot of upgrades and struggled. OK, Hulkenberg was a bit unlucky in qualifying but they just were not as competitive as in recent races. They suffered on the long straight in Baku and this weekend may be able to show their upgrades in a better light, but we will have to wait and see.

Hulkenberg had had seven races here and scored points in five of them. He is a bit of an old man now and the conditions may be more of a test for him these days, but he is never far off the points come Sunday.

Williams

Finally got their big upgrade onto the track in Baku. It wasn’t quite earth shattering, and Sainz was lucky to end up 10th, but he did stick in 9th in qualifying, so it is a quicker car. Their race pace was much harder to read. Sainz was battling with the Cadillac of Perez for much of the race, but he got lucky when Colapinto was playing skittles with his car. The jury is still out on their new package.

Aston Martin

Both drivers took grid penalties to take new, upgraded power units, but both were retired during the race. Alonso’s 9th place finish at Zandvoort looks like a distant memory and their car seems to have regressed again. I think they will need to pin their hope on the slowest tracks like Singapore, if they are to hope for anything else from this season.

Cadillac

Perez looked more competitive in Baku and said it was his best ever performance there. They have finally found a fix for their brake overheating problems, but the car is very draggy on the straights. This track may be a little better for them but they are not ready to beat anyone other than Aston Martin on merit.

2026 Bahrain GP: Summary

The continuing development wars don’t make things any easier. While Mercedes have remained the top dog in the 2026, they have lost races to Ferrari and McLaren, but neither of those teams have manged to stay on top.

Ferrari have just fallen away in their usual, underachieving ways. McLaren have still got too many weak spots in their car’s performance. Short corners, slow corners and long straights are kryptonite to their car. If everything is just right, they can win, but it rarely is.

Now Red Bull are knocking on the door, looking ready to win a race, but then comes along a Mercedes upgrade. The goal posts have shifted again. And then we have the engine penalties hanging over Leclerc and Russell. We know that they will both get one, but when?

New/Old Track

For this weekend we move to a new/old track. It will be new to more than half the grid, but the older guys will have had a taste of what to expect. Of course, the last time we were here, it was the fourth year of the turbo hybrid era. Since then, we have had the ground effect era, and now we have the battery era, or maybe it is the algorithm era. The cars are very different to when Verstappen won his second ever GP, and the last Malaysian GP.

And then throw in the very real possibility of rain, torrential rain. We haven’t seen these cars on a wet track yet and we don’t know what will happen when the drivers unleash the full power of the ICE and battery pack on a wet track. We don’t know if the algorithms will have a freak out and completely confuse the drivers.

I suppose we have to assume that the Mercedes upgrade will move them ahead again, but upgrades don’t always work as expected.

Known Knowns

This weekend is a bit like the Donald Rumsfeld saying. “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

We know the Mercedes is the car to beat, but we don’t know how good the upgrade will be. We know the weather will be unpredictable, but we don’t know what it will do. Also, we know that some of the leading drivers have penalties pending, but we don’t know when, or where. We know these cars/algorithms are very sensitive to the unexpected, but we don’t know how they would react to a wet track, if it were to be wet.

Who Wins?

Now pick the winner of the 2026 Bahrain GP.

We can all have a stab at it, but putting hard earned cash on it is a lot harder. The three leading contenders for the win on Sunday are the two Mercedes drivers and Verstappen.

George Russell is talking a good game, saying that he feels much more at one with the car now, and his driving was very good last weekend. Antonelli had a poor weekend, missed track time, had a cash and had to chase his losses.

Crashes are about the only thing that could dramatically change the drivers’ championship, and he should be well advised to just take less risk on the run into the end of the season. He is young and has no scar tissue, so he has tended to just go flat out. It has served him well so far but maybe he will rein things in a little. For him second place is fine.

Rain Could Help Max

Verstappen is getting closer to a win, but he may find the Mercedes pulling away again this weekend. Rain would be a great leveller and that is a possibility, but maybe more for qualifying. He has had six podium finishes from his last six races, four of them second places. If Mercedes take a misstep, he looks best placed to take advantage. Various firms are offering e/w betting for the top three and that will be my only bet for now. There is much to learn about this track and these cars.

2026 Bahrain GP Tip: 1 point e/w Max Verstappen to win the Bahrain GP @ 9.00 with Betvictor (e/w 1-3, 1/5 the odds)

There will be a brief update for qualifying which is at breakfast time UK time. Hopefully the bookies will make it worth my while for getting up at the crack of dawn. The race day update will be posted Saturday afternoon, well ahead of the race start on Sunday.

-JamesPunt