2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview

Dave Stevos had a look at the ITV Saturday afternoon cards and nothing really leapt out. The Gray Ghost runs at Ascot but is only 9/2, much shorter than when we backed him last weekend. He’ll also be watching Fleur In The Park at Down Royal with interest, hopefully he goes well and books his ticket to the King George. However, betting wise it will be full focus on Keeneland, Dave Stevos’ 2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday preview and tips are below. His Friday tips can be viewed here.

5.10 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Dirt Sprint (Group 1)

Michael McCarthy won this race in 2021 with Ce Ce and maybe Look Forward can go well for him at a big price in this year’s renewal. By Bolt D’Oro, this filly won a G2 over this trip at Churchill Downs back in May 2025 (had Evanescence 2.75l behind).

Two runs later, she pitched up in a 7f G1 at Saratoga and could only manage a 6.75l fourth behind Kilwin, but she didn’t get the cleanest of runs that day and if she had enjoyed a smoother passage, she would have finished closer to that rival.

Setback

McCarthy’s filly must have suffered a setback after that run because she wasn’t seen again until running a cracking race over 6f in a Listed contest back at Churchill Downs in September of this year. She finished less than a length behind Usha, who was racefit, and she went on to run pretty well in a G2 on her next start.

Look Forward looks sure to strip fitter and improve with that run under her belt, and stepping back up to 7f is another plus. She’s got a good draw in stall 1 and she has placed in G1 company before, so she has already shown she can be competitive at this level. With odds of 33-1 on offer, Look Forward gets the e/w vote.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Look Forward e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

5.48 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Group 1)

Back in 2022 when this race was last run at Keeneland, it turned out to be beneficial to be close to the early pace. However, in 2020 Glass Slippers was held up and produced late to win for Kevin Ryan. So, what kind of race will we get in 2026?

In stalls 1, 2, 3, and 4 we have horses that have either made all, or made most, to win this season. They will surely be battling for the early lead and that could well set this up for a closer from off the pace.

The most obvious hold up sort is Commanche Brave but odds of 3/1 are not much use to us. The one I’ll take a chance on at a much more generous price is the Mark Casse trained mare, Time To Dazzle.

Dual C&D winner

This 5yo daughter of Not This Time has been in the form of her life this summer. She’s won three of her sixteen career starts, two at Group 2 level and both of those wins came over this C&D.

After a cracking run in a 6.5f G1 at Kentucky Downs in August behind In Our Time, who had things her own way in front, Time To Dazzle pitched up in a G2 over this C&D 20 days ago and flew home from an unpromising position to score by a nose.

She is a mare that is best when coming late off a searching early pace and given the amount of front runners in here, she should get the race run to suit.

Now, given her run style, luck in running will be required but she’ll have the assistance of Oisin Murphy in the saddle and hopefully, he’ll be able to chart a clear passage. If he does, Time To Dazzle will hopefully stay on fast and late for a place here at odds of 33/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Time To Dazzle e/w @ 33/1

6.26 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (group 1)

Yet another race that looks like it will be run at a furious gallop. There’s at least three or four that will want to be up there early so again, I am going to bank on one perhaps staying on late from the back to pick up the pieces.

The one that fits the bill is the Peter Miller trained 5yo, Moonlight. By Audible, this horse has won just once, the Cherokee Mile at Churchill Downs this time last year. His best effort so far this season came over 6f in a G1 at Del Mar in July where he stayed on very well for a 1.5l third after getting outpaced early.

On his next run in a G2 at Del Mar, this time over 7f, he ran a similar sort of race. He again came from near the rear to nick place money, beaten just 0.5l into second by Iron Man Cal.

Now, Miller’s charge did run a poor race at Belmont Park a month ago but I am willing to forgive him that tame effort. He has run well over C&D in the past, this should be run to suit him and at odds of 40/1, Moonlight is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Moonlight e/w @ 40/1  

7.04 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Group 1)

We’ve done alright in this race the last two times it has been run at Keeneland. In 2020 we backed Audarya, who won at odds of 12/1 and in 2022 we were on Lady Speightspeare, who was third for us at odds of 40/1.

This contest has proved to be a pretty happy hunting ground for European horses. They’ve won seven of the last ten renewals and the bookies reckon that Blue Bolt (7/4) and Precise (3/1) are the most likely winners this time. You would have to prefer the Andrew Balding filly, who has won four G1s in a row, but she’ll be having her eighth run of 2026, while Precise will be having her ninth, so there’s always a worry that this might be one race too many.

I am going to take a chance on another big priced outsider. A G2 winner earlier this season at Woodbine, Vina Arana has sneaked in as the first reserve here. By Make Believe, she started her career in Ireland with Henry De Bromhead, for whom she was placed in a 1m Leopardstown G3 on her final Irish start.

no fluke

She has since proved that was no fluke in America. That Woodbine win was an excellent effort and you could argue that her latest effort in a 1m G1 at this track, was even better.

She got slightly hampered at an inopportune moment in that contest before staying on stoutly down the outside and in the end, she finished just 1.25l behind the winner Classic Q and the runner up Lush Lips, while she was only 0.5l behind the third placed Bless The Broken.

On the evidence of that run, she may be able to turn the tables on those three rivals over this extra 1.5f, if she gets a clear run. Now, whether she’s good enough to beat the best of the European raiders is another matter, but Adam Beschizza is a good pilot and I’m happy enough to take an e/w chance on Vina Arana at odds of 66/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Vina Arana e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)

7.42 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Group 1)

I’m starting to feel like a broken record here but yet again, this looks a race that might set up for a closer. There are multiple horses in here that like to lead, or be close to it, so yet again, I’ll go with a horse that prefers to be ridden patiently and pray for a late pace collapse.

The one I came down on is Nakatomi, and if my memory serves me correctly we backed him last year too. A 7yo gelding by Firing Line, his last two G2 wins, including his latest start, have come over this C&D and in both races, he came from the back.

Last year at Del Mar, I was hoping he’d do something similar but unfortunately, he could never get into the race. It was a similar story when he ran in this race at Del Mar in 2024 and in 2023, he ran on late for third at Santa Anita.

This track clearly suits him better than those aforementioned tracks and that’s backed up by his form figures at this venue (11142211). Hopefully Wesley Ward’s gelding can make it fourth time lucky at the 2026 Breeders’ Cup at odds of 18/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Nakatomi e/w @ 18/1

8.20 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Group 1)

Charlie Appleby has won four of the last five renewals of this race, including last year with Notable Speech. The son of Dubawi, now a 5yo, is back to defend his crown and on the evidence of his last two runs, he’s as good as ever and he’ll take a fair bit of beating.

Thanks to his price of even money, there should be plenty of e/w value to be found here. The one I like at around 40/1 is the now Mark Casse trained 7yo, Facteur Cheval. Formerly trained by French handler Jerome Reynier, this son of Ribchester has won over 4.5 million in prize money during his brilliant career.

He’s won seven of his 26 starts on turf and has been in the first three on another 12 occasions so he can usually be relied upon to run his race. On his first start for Casse, over 8.5f at this track, Facteur Cheval got back to winning ways in a valuable allowance race, travelling strongly before quickening clear in the final furlong to score quite readily.

Now, these are deeper waters so he’s going to need to improve on that run but he’s run some fine efforts in defeat in G1 company before, and even won one at Meydan, so if he does produce his best, he’s more than capable of hitting the frame.

He’ll be ridden by Manuel Franco for the first time and while he’s not a jockey I am overly familiar with, Wikipedia tells me he has ridden two Breeders’ Cup winners and also won the Belmont Stakes in 2020, so he is clearly no mug. Hopefully he can get a good tune out of Facteur Cheval at odds of 40/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Facteur Cheval e/w @ 40/1

8.58 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Group 1)

Only seven runners here and this is a race I rarely get involved in. No bet.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: No bet

9.36 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Group 1)

The Irish have a strong looking hand here with Diamond Necklace and Benevenuto Cellini representing Aidan O’Brien and last year’s winner Ethical Diamond running for Willie Mullins.

However, I am going to take those horses on with the Charlie Appelby trained El Cordobes. This Frankel gelding enjoyed a fine campaign in 2025. His three wins included a G2 victory at Newmarket, where he beat Wimbledon Hawkeye by 2l, and a G1 win at Saratoga.

On his final start of 2025 he ran a cracker in this race at Del Mar, staying on nicely to finish a 2l third behind Ethical Diamond after not getting the clearest of runs. He was given a nice break after a below par effort at Doha in February and reappeared with a pleasing run at Belmont Park, and that will have hopefully blown away any cobwebs.

Appleby’s horses have been hitting form in the last couple of weeks, hopefully El Cordobes can give him another winner here at odds of 25/1.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: El Cordobes e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NAP

10.16 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Group 1)

Just seven runners here and I reckon we have enough bets placed already tonight! No strong opinion and no bet.

2026 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: No bet

-DaveStevos