2026 British GP Raceday Preview

We nailed Antonelli to get pole position in qualifying. Check out James Punt’s 2026 British GP Raceday preview below.

2026 British GP Raceday

It does feel like a bit of an anti-climax having the British Grand Prix being run after a dress rehearsal. We have had two qualifying sessions and the Petit-Prix and the form lines are now well exposed, but there are a few question marks about some drivers.

Mercedes 

It has been Antonelli’s weekend so far. Never worse than second in the timed sessions. Second in sprint qualifying, won the sprint race and set the pole position time, 0.175 seconds ahead of the Ferrari of Leclerc. He starts as the 1.44 favourite and after winning the sprint race with ease, he is hard to oppose. Antonelli has converted all four of his pole positions into race wins in 2026.

George Russell has not been on the pace all weekend, on a track where he has never gone that well at. This weekend was his best chance to win his home race, but he has never been better than 4th all weekend. He very nearly went out in Q1 yesterday after leaving the track and hitting the wall. Luckily, he was able to recover and got a new front wing, ending up in 4th place. However, he was nearly four tenths slower than his teammate.

Russell was losing time on the straights for reasons unknown. If the team can identify the problem and fix it, he is in a good position to get his first home GP podium. The car showed good long run pace and good tyre degradation characteristics.

Ferrari 

The only team to give Mercedes anything to think about. Hamilton got the sprint pole by a whisker but was unable to hold off Antonelli in the Sprint Race and finished second. He looked a bit flat when out qualified by Charles Leclerc yesterday, 0.172s behind. Leclerc had been off the pace up to qualifying but made some changes and strung a good lap together.

The sprint race saw Ferrari losing out on the straights in the end. Once Antonelli got overtake mode, he just drove past Hamilton, who had run out of battery power halfway down the straight. The Mercedes is quicker, but Ferrari have two cars at the business end of the grid and will no doubt try some strategic tactics to unsettle Mercedes. That said, Russell is 4th, so Mercedes can employ their own tactics to unsettle Ferrari.

Red Bull 

It has been a difficult weekend for Red Bull. Never on the pace and while Verstappen did make P3 in the sprint qualifying, both cars lost three places off the line in the sprint race. Their race pace was OK, but way off Mercedes and Ferrari.

Verstappen then had a power unit issue in qualifying and ended up 7th, two places behind Hadjar. The last time Hadjar started 5th was in Monaco, where he finished 3rd, for a day or two, before the FIA admitted to handing out undeserved penalties and giving Gasly the third place back.

Hadjar has looked pretty good but the car, so good in Austria, is just a bit ordinary this weekend. Such are the vagaries of these 2026 power units.

Their poor starts are a big concern for our bet on Hadjar for a top 6 finish, and our e/w bet on Verstappen looks very dead. He thinks there is a problem with the power unit and also isn’t happy with the car’s balance. They can’t match the Ferraris or Mercedes and their race is with McLaren.

McLaren 

Norris was a surprising third in the sprint but the car’s lack of pace was once again exposed in qualifying and they line up with Norris 6th and Piastri 8th. They may well have better race pace than the Red Bulls and should be able to take advantage of any poor starts from Verstappen and Hadjar. A 5th and 6th place finish is a realistic target.

Racing Bulls 

The ‘best of the rest’ again and at times looking to give their senior team something to think about, with Lawson beating Hadjar to 8th place in the sprint to take the final point. They are going for their fourth double points finish in a row and have the pace to do so.

Audi 

11th and 13th is par for the course for Audi. I had thought they might do better here but they are just that bit off the top 10 pace…again. They have tried to improve their starts but neither driver made much impression in the sprint race from similar grid positions. They have had ten finishes in the 11th to 13th range and that is where they should end up today. Hulkenberg has been promoted to 12th place on the grid after a penalty for Gasly.

Haas 

Some small upgrades for the car this weekend and Bearman now starts from 13th, as he did in Austria, where he finished 14th. They have lost their stronger race pace relative to their competitors in recent races and may struggle to keep the Alpines at bay. Bearman says that he sees no prospects of making any progress in the race.

Williams 

Another team with some upgrades this weekend. They got their best qualifying positions since Monaco and Sainz starts 14th after Gasly’s penalty. They look to have reached their limit as things stand and the pace isn’t there to make much progress on merit.

Alpine 

Gasly did qualify in 12th place but got a three place grid penalty for holding up Lance Stroll in qualifying. Imagine actually holding up the worst car on the grid? He blamed a radio failure for him not being aware that Stroll was on a flying lap.

Gasly is the only driver clearly out of place on the grid and the most likely to make some forward progress. Both drivers felt the car was better on the long runs which bodes well for the race, but Colapinto starts a lowly 19th.

Cadillac 

Bottas got a rare qualifying win over his teammate and he was happier with the set up on his car than Perez. Reliability is a big concern, but there was no sign of the brake problems that blighted them in Austria.

Aston Martin 

Stroll beat Alonso in qualifying for the second time in the last three races. Alonso is completely demotivated and just counting down the days to Hungary when the team will unleash their B spec car. Adrian Newey didn’t sell the upgrade short, saying he expects to be right up in the midfield proper.

2026 British GP Raceday Summary

It is hard to get enthused about today’s race. It has the feel of a race that is already decided. The biggest threat to Mercedes is reliability and the team have made steps to address that.

Ferrari are the meat in a Mercedes sandwich and their race is really with Russell for a podium place. Russell has not been comfortable all weekend and losing time on the straights.

The last ten races here have been won from pole six times, from 2nd three times and 3rd once. The attrition rate in the same period has been an average of 3.60 and in 2026 it is 4.12. Attrition is the most likely way for the midfielders to make up places, but most of the attrition has been with the backmarkers in recent races, with the exception of Mercedes issues, which they appear to have addressed.

Poor Starts

Red Bull’s poor starts make them vulnerable to losing places early doors and Verstappen’s car seems to be carrying a power unit problem.

It is very hard to see past a win for Antonelli. The other two podiums are going to be close between the two Ferraris and Russell. Hamilton has a fantastic record here but odds of 1.60 for a podium finish are only fair.

We are on Hadjar for a top six finish and he has the pace to do so, but he cannot afford to be dropping places at the start. The McLarens have similar pace and if they get gifted places at the start, they would be hard to shift.

Gasman

The only driver who makes any appeal in the points finish market is Gasly. He has looked around 11th place pace and any attrition ahead could let him into the points, so long as he doesn’t get stuck behind the Audi’s. Even then, the Racing Bulls are faster, so he really needs some luck.

It has not been a particularly good track for Gasly, but it has been for Hulkenberg. He may have used up a lifetime’s luck to finish third here last year, and like Gasly, he would need luck to get his tenth points finish at Silverstone. It seems likely he ends up 11th or 12th and their race starts are a worry.

Bortoleto has finished 11th for the last three races and he will get lucky at some stage, but odds of 2.25 for a points finish are about right.

There really isn’t a lot of value around, as is often the way with Sprint race weekends.

Group Betting

The only group bet that is of any interest in everyone’s group 4. That is made up of the two Aston Martins and the two Cadillacs. The two slowest and most unreliable cars on the grid. Perez and Alonso have won this group three times, Bottas and Stroll once. It is a bit of a lottery. They have had fifteen not classified finishes between them. Perez with the least with two, Bottas and Alonso four each and five for Stroll.

The Cadillac is the faster car, but Bottas has had three DNFs in the last three races, as has Stroll. Perez in two of the last four, as has Alonso. Basically, if you finish, you have a decent chance of winning this group. Alonso starts from last place, but at 4.50 I’ll chuck some loose change at him, just for some interest.

2026 British GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 points Fernando Alonso to win Group 4 @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes Unibet, Fitzdares

Match Betting

There are two match bets which look to be offering up some value. The first is between the two Ferrari drivers. Hamilton starts one place behind Leclerc, but he did so in Austria last weekend and beat Leclerc. It is Hamilton who is 6-2 against his teammate and he has won their last five H2Hs in a row.

2026 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to beat Charles Leclerc @ 1.80 with Fitzdares

The other is between the two Racing Bull drivers. Lindblad starts ahead of Lawson, but the Kiwi was the faster driver in the other three timed sessions. Lawson is 6-2 vs. Lindblad and has won the last four H2Hs. Lawson also won their H2H in the two races where Lindblad out qualified him.

2026 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to beat Arvid Lindblad @ 2.20 with Fitzdares

Fastest Lap

Antonelli has set the fastest lap in five of the eight GPs so far in 2026. He is in the fastest car and has the exuberance of youth. He has set the fastest lap in three of the four races where he has started from pole position. Getting odds against is a bit of a surprise.

2026 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to set the fastest lap @ 2.40 with Betfred

-JamesPunt