2026 Canadian GP Raceday Update

Check out James Punt’s 2026 Canadian GP Raceday preview below. James landed a nice 2 pointer in qualifying, hopefully there’s more to come tonight.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday

It’s Groundhog Day again. Not the ones getting squashed by the F1 cars on track, but the race day weather forecast.

Just like in Miami, the weather forecast is for the race to be affected by rain….maybe. A 60% chance of showers around an hour into the race. Of course, showers are very hit or miss and when it comes to F1, usually a miss.

The teams had the choice before setting the cars up for qualifying yesterday. Go with more downforce for extra grip in the wet or ignore the weather forecasters and just set up for a dry race. Maybe split your drivers, one with a wet, the other with a dry setup.

Choices

For us punters, it is a bit of a bummer. Go for ‘wet bets’, and it stays dry. Go for a dry race, and it rains. It is OK when it is going to be wet, but a 60% chance of showers is just about the worst forecast there can be.

Even without rain, this track often produces quite a few safety cars and that is another random factor that can make or break a race strategy. Again, even without rain, today is going to be cloudy and cooler, so the track surface will be colder than in the first two days. Grip will be lower even in the dry.

In the ten races here in turbo hybrid era, seven have been won from pole, two from 2nd place and one from 6th. The Attrition rate here has been high. All ten saw at least two drivers not classified. The average is 3.5 and the highest number of not classifieds was eight in 2014.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Mercedes 

Their upgrades have worked, but maybe not by as much as expected. Or maybe McLaren are getting more out of their Miami upgrade. However, they have been 1-2 in three of the four sessions so far, and 1-3 in the other. Only Lando Norris has kept them honest.

Russell has just about had the edge, Antonelli has looked faster, but is just lacking a bit of maturity. The Italian was driving like a maniac in the Sprint, and Russell used his experience to go out last in Q3, getting the very best track conditions. That just about gave him the edge.

Their race starts have looked better, but that might have more to do with the layout of the track. It is a short run into the first corner complex which is very slow and ponderous. It just isn’t a great overtaking spot.

Russell is the 2.25 favourite to win, Antonelli 3.25. They have the best car but Norris was close enough to take advantage of Antonelli’s mistakes and was able to keep Russell company in the Sprint. A wet race could throw a spanner in the works, but that goes for everybody.

The pole position stats make good reading for Russell, and very good for Mercedes with the last nine races here won from the front row.

McLaren 

Norris has been second or third in sprint qualifying, the sprint and GP qualifying. Piastri fourth in the same three sessions. Clearly the next best to Mercedes, and we got close to landing the 12.00 bet in the Sprint race. Antonelli very nearly took out both Mercs, and we have to keep in mind that at some stage in 2026, it might happen.

McLaren brought a new front wing for this race, but I believe that they are not running it as, for once, it didn’t behave as expected. Montreal hasn’t been a great track for McLaren, but Red Bull and Ferrari just aren’t on it this weekend. Norris has to be considered for a podium finish.

Ferrari 

Not enough corners, too many straights and not good on the tyres, despite this being a low degradation track. ‘The worst weekend of my racing career’ said Leclerc, so he isn’t happy. ‘The most fun I have had in a long time’ says Hamilton. This is more of a Hamilton track, even if he did make a mess of the sprint race.

Red Bull 

My theory that Verstappen would be competitive this weekend proved to be wide of the mark. After a big step forward in Miami, this weekend has been a big step backwards. The car was not coping well with the kerbs and generally bumpy track.

Verstappen was again complaining about his gearbox. He wasn’t happy and the team only made modest progress with the setup for GP qualifying. Hadjar suffered another power unit failure in the Sprint, but he has been much closer to Verstappen, which means the car is poor.

You can never rule out Verstappen if we do get a wet race, and they were said to be adding downforce on for qualifying. They know a wet race is their only chance of a big result.

Alpine 

Another good weekend for Colapinto, but Gasly is having a mare. He is complaining about not being comfortable in the car, just like in Miami. Gasly did some wet weather testing for Pirelli last week, but he needs a miracle to get a decent result today. Colapinto will lead the team’s charge again today.

Racing Bulls 

Lindblad has been very consistent, top nine in every session and maximising the cars potential. They are running an upgrade which has improved the car. Lindblad says that he loves driving in the wet, so he might be one to watch.

Lawson might be one to watch crashing if we get a wet one. He hasn’t had much luck this weekend, missed a lot of track time and has been on the back foot ever since, but the car is fast.

AUDI 

11th place for Hulkenberg in the Sprint and GP qualifying….again. He is doomed to finish 11th every time it seems, and it happened a lot in 2025 as well. The car is a dog off the line, but super-fast on the straights. Expect them to lose ground and then spend the race making up places…and finishing 11th. Hulkenberg did get his first ever F1 podium in wet conditions in Silverstone last year, so you never know.

Williams

Sainz managed to qualify and finish 10th in the Sprint, but otherwise they have struggled. Albon was derailed by getting a Groundhog in his mush in sprint qualifying, and he has struggled ever since. Sainz is a good wet weather driver but starting from 15th makes things hard.

Haas 

Running with an upgrade package this weekend but while Ocon showed up in 13th in the Sprint, they have looked very much off the midfield pace. They seem to have got lost with their setup and are in for a tricky race.

Cadillac 

Perez went for a different strategy in the Sprint race, starting on the soft tyre, making up places at the start and running 10th for a while. He finished 14tth, which was progress of sorts. Bottas has struggled.

Aston Martin 

Not bothering with upgrades on the premise that you can’t polish a turd. The car is a bit more driveable thanks to Honda curing the vibrations, but it remains slow. A wet race would be the best thing that could happen for them.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday Summary

I am writing this some six hours before the race. There is some rain in Montreal but it has been light in nature. The forecast remains for a cloudy day, around 12c for race start time, and a 60% of light rain sometime after the start of the race.

Reading the things the teams are saying doesn’t tally with the forecasts I am looking at. I know the media always overhype the chances of rain and how heavy it will be (it gets eyes on screens) but the teams are all saying a wet race is likely. I have little choice but to go with them, but I do not expect any heavy rain. Enough to make interesting at most.

Being at the front in a wet race means you can see where you are going. Pirelli are saying that the cool temperatures are as much a concern as any rain. They are worried that the inters might not be able to get into a working temperature, and we might even see the full wet tyres being needed. Not to clear the water, but to get warmer and give more grip.

The full wets throw up a lot of water, and visibility could be an issue. Being at the front would be ideal, so advantage Mercedes.

Antonelli Issues

Mercedes will have to hope that young Antonelli can stay calm. He felt hard done by in the Sprint race, feeling that Russell should have got a penalty. The truth is that Antonelli tried a very optimistic overtake on the outside line of a corner. Russell couldn’t just disappear and then Antonelli lost the head and lost second place. If he carries on like that in a wet race, he could take both cars out.

I expect Russell to prevail, but odds of 2.25, for a potentially wet race, in cars that we haven’t seen in the wet yet, is too short. You need a bit of meat on the bone in races that could cut up rough. For that reason, I will skip Norris for a pole finish at 1.74. In a dry race, yes, a decent bet, but given the forecast, just a bit short.

The Safety Car

Looking at the history of the safety car in Montreal (this was the track where a safety was used in F1) and it is clear it has been busy, and very busy on occasions. In 2011 the safety car was out six times, four times in 2007 and 1999, and three times in 1998. As recently as 2024 there were two.

The tendency in recent years has been to use virtual safety cars, but sometimes only the real thing will do. If we do get rain, and these cars are as hard to drive in the wet as the doomsayers believe, we could see a few.

The odds on one safety car are a miserable 1.3. Over 1.5 a more acceptable 2.65. Over 2.5? 6.00. Tempting, but probably just greedy.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point over 1.5 safety cars @ 2.65 with Unibet

Lindblad has been very good so far and that he expressed a liking for wet weather racing was interesting . Livescorebet have a ‘best of the rest’ market (not including the Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari or Red Bull drivers) and Lindblad is a 3.50 shot to continue his good form in the upgraded Racing Bull. This one could come in, wet or dry.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lindblad to be ‘best of the rest @ 3.50 with Livescorebet

Sticking with a wet theme for the selections (it is going to be wet isn’t it), the number of classified drivers has to enter the picture. Montreal has a high attrition rate in normal conditions. Add in some rain and these new power units with the brutal power delivery, and we could have a volatile mix.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Under 17.5 finishers @ 5.00 with Betfred

I could go on adding ‘wet bets’, but then it really will end up dry. I think we have risked enough on a weather forecast. I will have one Group bet to wrap up. We got a nice winner with Carlos Sainz winning his group in Miami. That was a wet bet that won in the dry. Sainz has had two top ten finishes in 2026, despite lowly qualifying positions. Unibet have him grouped with the two Haas cars, which have looked to be struggling, and his teammate Albon, who definitely has been.

2026 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win Group 4 @ 2.80 with Unibet

-JamesPunt