2026 Dutch GP Qualifying Preview

George Russell landed the odds for James Punt in the Sprint. Check out his 2026 Dutch GP Qualifying preview and tips below.

2026 Dutch GP Qualifying

No time for a breather with these Sprint weekends. We now go into the business end of the weekend, the main course after this morning’s appetiser. The teams can now get to work on the cars, making any changes required after the data gathered from the Sprint part of the weekend. The Sprint race was a big yawn with just the two overtakes at the front of the field.

Mercedes 

Russell converted his Sprint pole into the race win. He has been top 3 in every session so far and is very much in the mix for pole today. The team don’t have much to do on his car.

Antonelli damaged his floor in the first part of Sprint qualifying and it cost him dearly. The lost downforce meant he ended up qualifying 5th and only made up one place in the race. The team can now give him a new floor and his car will be restored to full strength. That will make a big difference and I expect that Antonelli will be the man to beat.

Ferrari 

Underperforming again? Maybe Hamilton has been, but Leclerc looks in decent shape. He ran the soft tyre in the sprint and it worked well for him. He was able to pass the McLaren of Norris in the race, and his tyres held up well. Hamilton said that he will be making quite a few changes to his car before qualifying as he has been off the pace. Advantage Leclerc so far, on a track that has not been good for Hamilton.

McLaren 

Will have been disappointed with their race pace in the sprint. Both drivers suffered with rear tyre degradation even before the halfway point. They will need to address that in order to maximise their race prospects tomorrow. That may impact on their one lap pace today. Norris is much more comfortable in the car and he is still looking at a possible podium on Sunday. The cars showed good performance in the high-speed corners, but it was lacking straight line speed.

Red Bull 

Will they do their usual trick of transforming their car now that they are free to make changes? That is their trademark, so I expect Max to be closer than he was yesterday, but he was a long way off the pace. Others are just that bit quicker this weekend. Lawson has been outside the top ten so far, behind Lindblad in the Racing Bull, which is interesting. The Red Bulls have traditionally been tailor made for Verstappen and his number twos tend to struggle.

Alpine 

The upgrades for Alpine are only on Gasly’s car and he is benefiting. He has been 8th in all three sessions so far. I suggest he will be eighth again today. Colapinto will have to wait a couple of weeks to get his hands on the new parts.

Audi 

Promising a lot but underdelivering…again. OK, Bortoleto has been top 10 in all three sessions but Hulkenberg just went AWOL in Sprint qualifying and then had a mechanical issue in the race which saw him not classified at the end. Hulkenberg was at a loss for his sudden lack of grip in yesterday’s qualifying. Bortoleto can make Q3 again, but he needs to be perfect.

Racing Bulls 

Definitely missing Lawson. Tsunoda doesn’t have Q3 pace, which is no great surprise as he is getting his first taste of these new cars this weekend. Lindblad has been 10th in each session and like Bortoleto, can make Q3 again, if he is perfect.

Aston Martin 

Honda’s new upgraded power unit hasn’t done the trick. Alonso had a problem with his rear wing not opening in the Straight mode zones. That killed his speed and drained the batteries. He also had a problem with the power unit not doing what he was asking it to do, like slow down when he took his foot off the accelerator. His pace was better in the sprint race and he made up some places. He might make Q2, just.

Haas 

Ocon goes well here and he has been quicker than Bearman, but the car is just too slow to be anything but a backmarker.

Williams 

Albon is getting the better of Sainz so far, but hitting the re-set button may change that later.

Cadillac 

Bottas beat a Williams in the Sprint, but that is nothing to write home about.

Summary

Sprint Qualifying was very close, just 0.1s covering the top four. Today’s fight for the all-important pole position will be between the usual suspects. The Two Mercedes, two Ferraris and Norris.

Antonelli looks like the driver who will gain more between sprint qualifying and GP qualifying. He was missing a lot of downforce before, but with a fully fit Mercedes at his disposal, he is right in the mix for his seventh pole of the year.

His nearest competitors look to be Russell, Leclerc and maybe Hamilton, but Ferrari are yet to qualify on pole in 2026. However, they have had a car on the front row in four of the last five races. Norris maybe should have got pole yesterday, but I suspect that the changes the team will have to make to improve their race pace, may have a negative effect on his one lap pace, and every tenth counts for a lot on this short lap.

Antonelli Fav

Antonelli is the 2.88 favourite to fastest qualifier, Norris 4.20, Russell 4.50, Leclerc 8.50, Piastri 9.00, and Hamilton 12.00.

Mercedes’ big early season advantage is not there anymore and they are getting out performed in the corners, and there are a lot of them around here. That said, a Mercedes has been the fastest car in all three sessions so far.

Leclerc and Norris have been closest to the Merc’s so far, but they will be up against two fast Silver Arrows in this session.

Leclerc has improved session by session so far and since the Ferrari upgrade in Spain he has been the better qualifier of the two Ferrari drivers, unless we are at track where Hamilton usually excels, and this isn’t one of those.

Antonelli will be hard to shift, but maybe Leclerc can get closest, and the odds look a touch generous. The trouble is getting e/w markets.

Leclerc is 8.50, but only with win only books. However, we can get 8.00 with two firms, e/w the top three places.

2026 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to be fastest qualifier @ 8.00 with BET365, Boylesports

Match Bets

I will take a chance on Ocon to get the better of Bearman. He is 3-8 against the Englishman, but he was quicker in Hungary and faster in SQ yesterday. The Frenchman has a good track record here and he might just have the edge. He is 1.75 elsewhere, so 2.00 looks a decent price.

2026 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Ocon to out qualify Bearman @ 2.00 with Livescorebet

In the battle of the backmarkers Bottas has been getting the better of Perez of late, out qualifying the Mexican in the last three GP qualifiers. He has been faster in every session this weekend.

2026 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Bottas to out qualify Perez @ 1.73 with Unibet

Group Bet

Livescorebet have one qualifying group bet, which is effectively a ‘best of the rest’ market. Gasly is the 3.00 favourite and as he has been 8th in every session so far, he looks the obvious choice. The upgraded Alpine is going well and while Lawson is in the faster Red Bull, he hasn’t managed better than 11th so far this weekend.

2026 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Gasly to win Group 1 @ 3.00 with Livescorebet (you’ll find it at the bottom of the H2H page)

-JamesPunt