2026 Italian GP Raceday Preview

James Punt was a shade unlucky with his 2-pointer on George Russell for pole but at least his shrewd bet on the two Alpines to reach Q3 clicked at 6.00. Check out his 2026 Italian GP Raceday preview and tips below.

2026 Italian GP Raceday

It was a strange, and very frustrating qualifying session yesterday. It was case of being ‘hoisted with his own petard’. I expected Alpine to go well enough to get both cars into Q3, which they did to land the 6.00 bet, but I didn’t see Gasly getting pole position, beating Russell by 0.06 seconds, and sinking our nice two-point bet on Russell at 4.50.

Russell got out of position when starting his final qualifying lap and was too slow going into it. Execution is very import in qualifying here, and Mercedes didn’t manage it. Alpine did.

Outliers

Monza, being an outlier track can produce strange results and we had another yesterday. Alpine went for an old fashioned, ultra-low downforce set up and their straight-line speed got the results.

The grid saw a big reshuffle after the session ended. We knew about Antonelli’s grid penalty, and Albon’s, but Red Bull have also decided to put a whole new power unit system into Lawson’s car and he drops to the back. Alonso has been given a penalty for power unit changes made after qualifying and starts from the pit lane.

Red Bull must really hate Lawson. Hired and fired after two races last year, and then they shaft him in qualifying yesterday. Putting him out into a whole load of traffic which saw him missing out on Q3, and then thrown to the back of the pack with a grid penalty, designed to give Hadjar a nice fresh power unit for his return. And all the time, his ‘real’ team Racing Bulls are getting his teammate Lindblad into the top 10.

Another Penalty

Oscar Pisatri got a three place penalty for impeding Lawson in Q2, but it was hard for him to do anything else. Harsh, but things are just unravelling for the Australian.

So, what can we expect from today’s race? It could and probably will be interesting. We have seen plenty of ‘yo-yo’ racing on the energy poor tracks and this is the poorest of them all. Cars running out of battery power before the end of the straights and being passed by a car with more juice in their batteries, or just better deployment. They in turn have to recharge their batteries and get repassed.

We will also see how the cars get on with the powerful tow around the track. In many respects, the car in front is not the place to be until the finish line. Yes, the clean air is nice but you are just punching a big hole in the air for the car behind to drive through. That means going faster, and more importantly, using less power to do so.

Mercedes Marginally Quickest

If you have a car that is significantly faster than the rest, then you can run and hide, but while the Mercedes is the quickest car, it isn’t massively so, maybe a couple of tenths. The Alpine is very quick in a straight line and if Gasly can keep the lead at the start, Russell may find him hard to pass. Then you get a bunched field and probably cars hitting each other.

I am not sure that this going to be a great betting opportunity. It is a track where unexpected results happen. In the turbo hybrid era, the pole sitter has only won five of the twelve races, and we have has winners from as far back as 7th and 10th on the grid.

2020

Gasly himself was the surprise winner in 2020. He started from 10th, but after Magnussen retired his car at the pit lane entrance, the stewards deployed the safety car, but also closed the pit lane to enable Magnussen’s car to be safely moved.

Race leader, Lewis Hamilton and Antonio Giovinazzi both then pitted, unaware that the pitlane was closed. That was a ten second stop and go penalty. Shortly after all that, Leclerc crashed and brought out a red flag. At the restart, Hamilton lead from Stroll and Gasly but Stroll made a mistake and Gasly took second. Hamilton then had to take his penalty and dropped to the back, leaving Gasly in the lead. He hung on to win by 0.4 seconds from Sainz.

It would almost be as big a surprise if Gasly was to win again. At least he is starting from a good place, but this has not been a pole sitters track in the past. That said, in the last twelve races here, the pole sitter has only failed to finish on the podium twice

Russell Odds On

We backed Russell ante post at 3.50 to win the race and he is now the 1.85 favourite. I will stick with that in the race winner market. For interest, Gasly is a 15.00 shot in a place.

This is Ferrari’s home race and while they didn’t do a great qualifying, they have now got the second row to themselves. They are confident that their race pace is better than one lap pace. However, they are lacking straight line speed, which is a big handicap on this track.

McLaren have the same problem as Ferrari, only worse. Norris didn’t get a tow for his qualifying lap and is back in 8th place, Piastri now starts 6th having over performed to get 3rd before his penalty.

Moaning Max

The Red Bull ‘is made of paper’ according to Verstappen. It isn’t really, that would be dangerous. He means it was shit. It can’t handle hitting the kerbs and you really need to do that on a quick lap. The Red Bull has always been prone to not being good over the kerbs. It shouldn’t be as big a problem at race pace, so he may have a better race than qualifying.

Lawson has been hung out to dry and starts from 21st. He has struggled all weekend and there is no guarantee he can score any points. Verstappen was quick in FP3 and said he felt like something was broken in the car in qualifying. If that is the case, and the team can fix it, a podium is not out of the question. They have a powerful engine and will be putting pressure on the Ferrari’s on the straights.

Usual Suspects

We have the usual suspect fighting for the minor points. Gasly is fighting for big points while Colapinto, our 3.40 ante post selection to finish in the points starts from 7th. We know the car is quick and he just needs a clean start and a clean race to land that one.

Lindblad and Bortoleto close out the top 10, followed by the upgraded Haas of Bearman. He says the car is a night and day improvement. Lindblad was disappointed with his qualifying and thinks there was more in the car. He had been 7th in all the practice sessions so he may be one to side with in the right market. Sadly, I can’t find one.

The Audi’s did better than I expected, but with Antonelli’s penalty, Lawson’s problems and Tsunoda being rubbish, they are in a flattering 10th and 12th. They may find it hard to score points today.

2026 Italian GP Raceday Selections

We have Russell and Colapinto batting for us today and they are now much shorter odds than when we backed them earlier in the week. However, as we saw with Russell yesterday, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

Execution is everything, and a bit of luck helps. The first lap here is very stressful. There are usually some incidents at the first two chicanes before the order is established and I have had many a bet go down the pan on the first lap here.

All eyes will be on Antonelli. He starts from 20th, so not absolutely at the back. But at least he should avoid the usual midfield mayhem on the first lap. How many places can he make up is the question. He will actually now start from 19th place as Alonso has been given a penalty for changes made to the power unit after qualifying.

Spa Form

Looking at Spa for inspiration, we had Isack Hadjar taking a similar penalty for a power unit change. He started 21st and finished 6th. His teammate started second, so it is a good comparison and on a track that often sees drivers take penalties because overtaking is possible there.

Much the same is the case here. I would think that 6th place is a minimum target for Antonelli. The market agrees and he is just 1.57 to do so. He is 4.50 to finish on the podium, but that would at the very extreme end of his possible targets, and odds of 4.50 make no appeal.

Fastest Lap

He does make some appeal to set the fastest lap. He is a 3.75 shot and has scored half of the fastest laps this season. Starting at the back means he will have to work his way through the traffic, but once clear of the midfield cars he could find himself in clear air and chasing down to leading pack. He will be going flat out to make up as many points as possible.

The race is normally a one stopper and the usual strategy is a medium – hard strategy. Last year saw the two McLarens run very deep into the race, hoping for a late safety car, but eventually being forced to pit, and they then took on the soft tyre, and set the fastest lap with Norris.

I can see Kimi doing something similar. Backmarkers often start on a harder compound and run deep, hoping for that magic safety car. Pitting late brings the soft, faster tyre into play, and would suit a hard charging Antonelli.

2026 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to set the fastest lap @ 3.75 generally available

I was leaning towards backing Verstappen for a podium ante post, and still am, despite a disappointing qualifying. He was happy in FP3, and he is rarely happy with this car. He believed that something broke on the car in qualifying, and if that is now fixed, he should be more competitive, having been 3rd in FP3.

Max has finished on the podium in the last three races he has completed. The Red Bull power unit may not be quite as good as the Mercedes but it should give him more straight speed that the two Ferrari’s ahead of him.

2026 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to finish on the podium @ 3.75 generally available

The match bets look a bit predictable, although with Alonso starting from the pit lane, maybe Stroll is a value bet at 3.10? The Canadian has been the slowest driver this weekend and he maybe needs a bigger head start to risk backing him.

There is one of interest with Livescorebet. They have matched the pole sitter vs. 6th placed Piastri, and have Piastri as the 1.75 favourite, and Gasly 2.08. That seems to suggest that the Alpine being on pole is some kind of fluke.

Yes, the lap was perfectly put together, but then again, so was Piastri’s, before he got his penalty. The McLaren is limited by their lack of top speed. The Alpine is much quicker on the straights and has improved its cornering pace. The fact that Colapinto out qualified Norris is a big of point of note. Norris didn’t get a tow and that is the ‘real’ pace of the car.

I think Gasly has a good chance of beating Piastri.

2026 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Gasly to beat Piastri @ 2.08 with Livescorebet

The Group bets are unappealing and I will leave it that.

-JamesPunt