2026 Mexico GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his outright, team by team betting preview, see that here. His 2026 Mexico GP qualifying preview and tips are below.

2026 Mexico GP Qualifying

Friday’s free practice saw the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc setting the fastest times. FP1 saw no less than ten young drivers getting a run out. Hamilton was running with rakes on as Ferrari try to understand his woes with the front of the car. It wasn’t the most relevant of sessions.

FP2 was run in the same conditions as we will have in qualifying, so it was worth paying more attention to. Leclerc was quickest with Lando Norris +0.103s behind in second. The two Mercedes were 3rd and 4th.

Max Verstappen was 5th, but his car was carrying some damage after he had a coming together with Liam Lawson. Both drivers were being dicks and both have received a one place grid penalty for their troubles. Verstappen was +0.311s off Leclerc’s time and it is hard to say where an undamaged Red Bull would have fitted in, but obviously better than 5th.

Hadjar Sixth

Hadjar was 6th in the end after he had some car problem and was stuck in the garage for a while. The two Racing Bulls were 7th and 9th, with the Alpine of Gasly sandwiched in between. The underwhelming Oscar Piastri completed the top ten, some 0.5 seconds slower than his teammate.

Lewis Hamilton was 11th but his car broke down and he only completed 13 laps. Fernando Alonso was a respectable 12th, less than a tenth of a second off tenth place.

The consensus was that Ferrari held the advantage on Friday, but we have seen this movie before. The Mercedes and Red Bulls were not far off and Norris put himself into the mix, but I would say that was more driver than car. The Ferrari was making up 0.4 seconds in the slow corners, and maybe the thinner air is minimising their lack of straight line speed disadvantage.

Ferrari held a bigger advantage on the long run pace. They were around 0.250 clear, with Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren/Norris very closely bunched behind.

There will be no Esteban Ocon for the rest of the weekend. He appears to have parted company with the team altogether. His place for the rest of the weekend will be taken by Ryo Hirakawa, who was in the car for F1.

FP3

The final free practice session saw Lando Norris pipping Antonelli by 0.001 seconds to be fastest. Charles Leclerc was third and +0.117s behind Norris. The other McLaren of Oscar Piastri was fourth and +0.195s off the pace.

There was then a bigger gap to Verstappen in fifth and +0.351s slower. There was just 0.069s between Hamilton in sixth and Lindblad in tenth place.

It looks like Ferrari are dusting off the big book of ‘where did the pace go’ excuses. There won’t actually be much dust on it as it was well used in Texas last weekend. They have been very quick on the medium tyres but not liking the softs.

Surprise Package

The surprise package has been Norris. He sat out FP1 but was second in FP2 and now fastest in FP3, if only by the thinnest of whiskers. I thought that McLaren might have a decent car for this track and so it has tuned out. Even Piastri was up there today. Norris was the pole sitter here last year, but he had a very good car, and one that was particularly good in hot conditions. He doesn’t have that this year.

Antonelli has been 2/4/2 in the three practice sessions. He has had seven pole positions in 2026, albeit just one in the last eight, but that one was last weekend. Mercedes have clearly been able to get their latest upgrade to work, at least for Antonelli.

The Red Bulls have been struggling, both drivers complaining about the car. That is not a good sign.

Fastest Qualifier Betting

It looks like we have a three team battle for pole. Or perhaps a three driver battle for pole. Antonelli was half a second ahead of Russell. Norris two tenths ahead of Piastri, which isn’t huge, but it is a short lap.

Leclerc was 0.352s ahead of Hamilton, who has had a few niggly problems and hasn’t quite looked at ease. Verstappen has been 1/1/2 in the last three qualifying sessions, so he could dig deep and find something, but fifth has been Red Bulla best position this weekend. Last weekend he had been 2nd or 3rd in the free practice sessions.

Antonelli fav

As the bookies are pricing the session up, we have Antonelli as the 3.00 favourite, Leclerc 3.30 and Norris 5.50, all win only.

Given that Ferrari have yet to have a pole position in 2026, Antonelli has had seven and Norris three, I am leaning towards Antonelli and Norris.

Antonelli has been the best qualifier of 2026 and looks quite generously priced. Norris is very good around this track, and the car is well suited to the track and its peculiar characteristics. Leclerc should be in the mix, but…..Ferrari. We are on Leclerc e/w for the race, and I think he is very much still a serious contender for that, but Ferrari just don’t do qualifying very well.

I will back two drivers, one e/w.

2026 Mexico GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.00 with Livescorebet, SpreadEx

2026 Mexico GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Lando Norris to be the fastest qualifier @ 5.00 with Boylesports, Betfair, Hills, BET365 (e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3)

-JamesPunt