2026 Miami GP Betting Preview

The F1 is back this week after what seems like a lifetime. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Miami GP betting preview below.

2026 Miami GP

With the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs cancelled, we had a five-week break, but nothing stood still in the world of F1.

The most important thing was that the teams and the FIA got together to tweak the regulations for the rest of the season. Much has been made of the 2026 regulations and the problems with charging the battery packs, massive speed differentials and so on. Qualifying in particular was no longer the challenge of driving a lap flat out, but about power management and driving to an algorithm.

This is the hub of F1 problem. The algorithm can drive the car, overriding the driver at times, which is dangerous and against the very basic rule of F1 that says the driver must drive the car unaided. Remove the algorithm and many of the problems would be removed, but I have not seen that mentioned in the proposed regulation tweaks.

Unanimously Agreed Changes

The first thing to note is that the changes were unanimously agreed by all the teams, which is rare and tells me that the pecking order is unlikely to have changed much, if at all. If one team, or one power unit manufacturer, was to be disadvantaged by the changes, they would not have agreed to them.

The aim of the meeting of the teams and stakeholders of F1 was to address the lack of spectacle of qualifying, and the safety of the drivers in the races. That followed on from Oli Bearman’s crash in Suzuka. He was going flat out when he came upon Franco Colapinto who was in battery recharge mode. Bearman had to swerve to avoid going into the back of the Alpine, went onto the grass and spun into the barriers, injuring his knee.

Teams and drivers had warned that this was an accident waiting to happen, and happen it did. A bruised knee was a lucky outcome. The FIA then agreed that something had to be done.

The meeting only lasted a couple of hours and there will be no root and branch changes to the regulations. The Bring Back V10s brigade will be disappointed and the changes are refinements of the current regulations, not a step back in time.

The Changes in Brief

The recharge limit in qualifying will be reduced from 8MJ to 7MJ for each lap. This reduction will ensure more of the lap is run flat out with less need for unusual energy recovery tactics. I guess it also means the cars will have a little less electrical power to discharge and will be a little slower, but that will be across the board.

The recharge allowance, or super clipping, will be increased from 250kW to 350kW in both qualifying and the races. This will avoid the temptation for drivers to lift and coast to recover energy. That in turn reduces the potential of massive speed differentials between cars. Boost limits will be changed during races to further avoid risks of big closing speeds in unexpected areas.

Race Starts

Attempts to make the race starts safer will be tried in this weekend’s 2026 Miami GP, but will not be introduced until a later date. How they fit that into a Sprint weekend remains to be see. If a car is slow off the line, an automatic MGU-K deployment will be triggered to ensure a minimum level of acceleration and mitigate start-related risks without introducing any sporting advantage.

That sounds like a driver aid to me and they are supposed to be illegal, but not anymore. The slow launching cars will also have flashing lights activated, to warn the drivers behind.

We haven’t seen these cars being driven in wet conditions but power limits will be adjusted in wet weather races, to minimise risks of the cars being too difficult to drive.

Wait And See

Of course, we shall just have to wait and see how the changes go, but already the traditionalists have declared F1 dead and that the changes do not go far enough. They could try and watch something else of course, but they will be tuned in, just so they can moan about the modern world and how great the old cars were.

The fact is, that there will be a winner, there will be podium finishes, fastest laps, there will be points scorers and not classifieds, just like there ever was.

2026 Miami GP: Car Updates

If the above regulation tweaks are unlikely to change the pecking order, what the teams have been doing during the five week ‘break’ probably will. All the teams will have had unexpected time back at the factory to work on car developments.

Many teams will have pencilled the 2026 Miami GP in for a point of the season to introduce major upgrades in any case, now, they will all have. The Miami track has a wide variation of corners and long straights, which make it a good venue for testing new developments.

Of course, some teams will be making upgrades to make the car faster, some, just to try and fix problems. Some of these upgrades will work better than others, but you can have a situation where everyone takes a step forward, and nothing much changes. However, we should expect a team, or teams, to have made a relatively bigger step.

2026 Miami GP: Sprint Race Weekend

That Miami is a Sprint race weekend in a pain, more so than usual. All the teams have just one free practice session to track test their upgrades, and the effects of the new regulation tweaks. At least the FIA have realised that this is a problem and the free practice session has been extended from 60 minutes to 90. It bit more time to gather much needed data, but a ‘normal’ race weekend would have been better.

A Review of the Season so Far

It is worth having a look at the situation after the first three races.

Mercedes, the pre-season favourites, have lived up to expectations. They have scored 135 points, had all three pole positions, all three race wins and two fastest laps. It is Kimi Antonelli who leads the Drivers’ Championship with 72 points, with George Russell in second place on 63.

Ferrari are in second place with 90 points. Leclerc has scored 49, Lewis Hamilton 41. There is then a big drop to McLaren in third place with 46 points. After that there is a bunch of four teams, Haas, Alpine, Red Bull and Racing Bulls. Just four points separates those four teams. That leaves Audi and Williams on two points each, and Cadillac and Aston Martin on zero.

2026 Miami GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

1-2 finishes in Melbourne and China, all three poles and all three wins. They also won the Sprint race in China. Russell missed out on a podium in Japan (4th) and Antonelli was only 5th in the Chinese Sprint. Not quite perfect, but dominant.

Having two of the first five races cancelled was bigger blow to Mercedes than anyone else. They should have been able to cash in on their early season advantage, before other teams are allowed to develop their power units after the sixth race of the season. It has not been made clear if the sixth race of the season will be what was originally the sixth race, Miami, or the new sixth race of the season, Monaco.

Mercedes have lost ground at race starts and, like the Mercedes of the early Turbo Hybrid cars, it struggles in dirty air. So long as they are out front, the car has been the class of the field, but if they find themselves in traffic, they are not so great.

Ferrari 

Not on a par with Mercedes power wise, but they have scored three podiums. Two for Leclerc and one for Hamilton. The car looked more competitive on slower tracks with more slow corners, but straight-line speed was not great.

It is said that their ICE unit is 20 bhp down on Mercedes, and their smaller turbo, while very effective for race starts, doesn’t deliver enough power on the straights.

Ferrari expect that they will be allowed to develop their power units in season, under the catch up regulations for power units with a 2% or more deficit to the most powerful, but for this weekend they are stuck with the existing unit.

McLaren 

Started the season on the back foot. Caught out by receiving the latest Mercedes PU after testing, they then took time to understand how to use it and the software effectively, and they may still be learning. They have said that their appointed Mercedes’ engineers are now working well with the team and that early friction has eased.

The car wasn’t that great either but progress was being made before the break and Oscar Piastri finished second in the Japanese GP. That was his first race start of the season, and the highest finish of a non-Mercedes car.

Upgrades Coming

McLaren introduced a major upgrade for this race in 2024, and that was the start of their path to the 2024 Constructors’ Championship. They are planning something similar this weekend. It was always booked in that this is where their ‘real’ season would start.

It would be foolish not to take McLaren very seriously this weekend. They have proven to be very good at bring effective developments in the last couple of year. That ties up with them finishing infrastructure updates to their factory back at Woking. They have the tools and the engineers to make it all work as planned.

Haas 

Being held back by Ocon? They have scored 18 points and 17 have been score by Bearman, and he didn’t even finish the race in Japan. The car is decent, but uses the Ferrari power unit, with its limitations of power. The team is small and while they will have upgrades for this weekend, they might be out developed by the bigger teams, but at least they have a good base to work from.

I would say that they are likely to have been flattered by the under achievement of the likes of Red Bull, but they are firmly in the very competitive midfield pack.

Not for the first time, the Haas is a better race car than qualifier. Yes, the Ferrari power unit is very good off the line, but they are putting themselves back in the pack and with all the possible problems that can bring.

It is said that they have struggled to optimise the set-up for their flying laps. They are not alone with that, and if they have spent the month off, working on how best to get the car just right for the push laps, they could make a good jump just from that one area.

Alpine

Arguably the most improved team of the 2026 season so far, but they did get a big leg up just by ditching their own Renault power unit, for the class leading Mercedes. Another one driver team, with Gasly scoring 15 of their 16 points.

The car was suffering a lack of high-speed corning performance and this will have been their key area to improve on during the long break. There is some low hanging fruit there. We could see more good results for Gasly in the coming races, but Colapinto? Is he officer material, or just good for banking some sponsor cash?

He is a limiting factor in terms of the Constructors’ championship.

Red Bull 

The most disappointing team of 2026, but that is not entirely surprising. They have been haemorrhaging key personnel for some time now and eventually that works its way into the car. Undriveable is the cry from Verstappen, despite them having done the difficult bit of building their own power unit, and a good one by all accounts.

They are struggling to understand their car, as they did for a time last year. Do they still have the engineering talent to have identified and rectified what is causing the car to be so hard to drive? We shall see.

The car is another that is overweight and the plan is to arrive here with a much leaner machine. It is not a porker of Williams proportions, but there is a tenth or two up for grabs.

Slow Starter

The car has also been one of the slowest off the line due to energy drainage while waiting for the lights to go out. That is another area which is likely to have been addressed during the break.

Red Bull had a ‘filming day’ at Silverstone during the break and they were spotted running a new ‘upside down’ rear wing, akin to Ferrari’s version which has been seen in testing, but never raced.

Will this one see real action? It is just another drag reduction tool and if it works, all well and good, but it is said they have been working on it since last summer, so why not introduce it earlier? Ferrari are worried by its reliability, so maybe Red Bull have the same problem.

Racing Bulls 

Only two points behind their senior team suggests they are doing an OK job. They are bedding in a rookie driver and giving Lawson one last crack at proving himself. Both drivers have made contributions and the car is said to be good, if a little bit hard to set up.

That isn’t going to help a rookie driver and Lawson has held the advantage in the races. If they can make the car more predictable and easier to find the sweet spot, some progress can be made.

Audi 

Just about on top of the third division teams. The car has looked better on the faster tracks and their big turbo unit helps that, but it is slow off the line. Their pace in qualifying has been perfectly respectable, on the cusp of Q3 most times, and that has had carried through in the races, but only after very poor starts.

Two eleventh place finishes will have been frustrating, but things have been decent for a new entity, if not exactly a new team. That they have lost their team principle so early in the existence is a worry.

If they can find a way to get off the start line better than they can now, more points will come, but without a radical redesign, they may be stuck with a turbo system that effectively acts like an anchor at the start of the race.

Williams 

Only two points scored for a team that gave up on 2025 very early, in order to get the crucial 2026 season right. To be honest, two points flatters the car. Famously overweight, having five weeks off to get down to the gym and shed a few pounds should have been possible. So, can we expect a lighter Williams to be up in the points after the break?

Maybe not. The drivers have said that it is not just about being too heavy. It lacks downforce and the suspension is making the car cock its leg like a dog peeing against a lamppost. You really need all four wheels on the tarmac for the grip to be good. There is some low hanging fruit to pick weight wise, but the car is fundamentally bad.

The team are having to re-engineer parts just to lose weight. A lot of effort going into just playing catch up in that department. That is effort and resources not going into developing the car in terms of its design. Others are designing improvements, Williams are fixing problems, just trying to get where they should have been months ago.

Cadillac 

No points scored is no great surprise for a brand new team. Cadillac have got their car to the track and having just one DNF is a reasonable start. The car lacks downforce and is hard to drive as a result. As they learn the car, they can find improvements, but expecting any great step forward is unreasonable, given how far off the points pace they are.

Aston Martin 

More of a soap opera than a F1 team. Or maybe it is more of a ‘whodunnit’? Who is to blame for the worst car on the grid? The worst, despite having a shed load of money being ploughed into the project.

Fingers are being pointed all over the place and the uncomfortable truth is that star signing, Adrian Newey, may well have been the cause. He came in late, turned the design upside down, the Honda power unit wouldn’t fit his new design, but it was too late to do a proper redesign. Honda had run down its R&D in the power unit division, having decided to end its involvement in F1.

Change Of Mind

A late change of mind to get into bed with Aston Martin meant they were just not ready to build a decent power unit for the new regulations. That Aston Martin had not done due diligence on Honda was a stunning error. That Honda just didn’t say no to Newey, means they have rushed a late design that is full of problems.

Newey says the car itself is upper midfield, but we really can’t tell, such is the lack of power and reliability from the Honda power unit. Yes, Honda can start to redesign the power unit after the sixth race, but how well equipped are they to do so, and do it quickly? I think we can just write off Aston Martin’s season.

I suppose things can only get better, but what a shambles.

Reset Button?

After five weeks without a race, the teams will all have had plenty of time to address their weaknesses and/or improve on their strengths. This obviously messes with the tenuous early form lines from the first three races.

We can expect the cars to be different. They would have been different in any case, but the fact that the teams would have had to travel to races and have had less time in the factory. Now, they may have made two or three steps, not just one. We may see a change to the pecking order, indeed we should see a change, but how big, and who will benefit the most remains to be seen.

Will the faster teams be able to increase the gap as there are improving something that is already better? Or will the teams with very obvious problems, the low hanging fruit, be able to close the gap?

Bigger Picture

It is important to take a step back and think of the bigger picture. Not all teams are equal, but the FIA regulations under the cost cap is trying to move things that way.

There is a ‘handicapping’ system in place. The team that wins the Constructors’ Championship is restricted in the amount of wind tunnel time they can run in the following season. They are also restricted in terms of computer modelling they can run.

The team finishing last is allowed more, 25% more and the team finishing second gets a lesser restriction than the winner, all the way down the grid. The idea is that eventually, the teams’ performances will gradually get closer. It would take years, not weeks, but the top teams of 2025 do have to manage their resources carefully. The teams at the back have that bit more capacity to use, but often lack the ability to use it.

Top Teams

The top teams are the top teams because they have the best engineers and the best infrastructure. They can use their limited wind tunnel time more effectively. Aston Martin are an outlier here, but you get the drift.

My guess? Everybody has made progress and if everyone takes a step forward, we won’t notice much change. It is only the teams that make two or three steps that we will notice.

If Williams, for example, have spent the time losing 20kg in weight, then they pick up 0.6 seconds, which is a sizeable improvement, but would only move them into the midfield, at best. Their car has other problems which may have had to wait while they address the biggest problem.

McLaren Progress

McLaren on the other hand, had made good progress in the last race in Japan. They were getting to grips with how to get the best out of the Mercedes power unit. Piastri finished in second place, still the best part of 14 seconds off Antonelli, but it was the best non-Mercedes finish of the season to date. This a team who won the Drivers’ title in 2025 and the Constructors title in 2024 and 2025. They know what they are doing.

McLaren had always planned to introduce a major upgrade for this weekend. They did the same thing in 2024, which heralded their successful charge to that years Constructors’ title, after an ordinary start to that season. This weekend’s upgrade will not be restricted to new aerodynamics, but a whole root and branch reworking of the car.

Bigger Upgrades

They are going as far as calling it a brand-new car. McLaren did say at the start of the season, that they would approach the season by making fewer, but bigger, upgrades than their competitors. Rather than a bit here, and another bit there. They would have maybe three big upgrades across the season. That fits with their wind tunnel, computer modelling restrictions.

The plan was to make the first big introductions in two parts. Here, and then the final upgrades in Canada. Perhaps the extra time without races, may have allowed them to be able to bring all, or at least more, of the upgrades for this race?

There is some logic in believing that McLaren are best placed to make the most progress.

Ferrari Powered Teams

The Ferrari powered teams are still going to be limited on top speeds until they can develop the power units, and that cannot happen until after the sixth race. The weakness is baked in, and this track does feature long straights.

Mercedes had a comfortable advantage before the break. They will not have been sitting on a beach scratching their bum for five weeks. We can expect Mercedes to have improved, but they are likely to be more marginal gains.

Red Bull Issues

Red Bull are expected to bring plenty of upgrades, but they really need to, and the question is, do they have a good starting point? I would say no. Their car has been very poor for a top team, and they couldn’t work out what was wrong.

Traditionally, Red Bull were the masters of being able to transform a poor handling car overnight. This season Verstappen has been saying that they have tried everything, and nothing made any difference. That is not good. If you know what the problem is you can start work on fixing it. If you have to spend time trying to find the problem, you drop further behind the curve.

Red Bull did get lost around this time last year, but did recover to finish the season very strongly, but are they the same team now? No, they have lost important players and have been losing key staff for the last two or three years. They can say that isn’t a problem, but it is. Losing a few is normal, losing a lot, is not. Eventually there is a reckoning.

In terms of likely race winners, I would be surprised if any team outside of Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari are in the game.

Miami Form

As we are only just into a new regulatory era, it is hard to place too much weight on past track form, but it may be worth looking at any driver who might be looking forward to coming back here more than others.

Only two teams have won the four Miami GPs. Two each for Red Bull, and McLaren, with McLaren winning the last two. Verstappen has won two, and Norris and Piastri have won one.

On Debut last year, Kimi Antonelli got the sprint pole, ahead of the two McLarens, but the sprint race was won by Norris, ahead of Piastri and Hamilton close behind. The GP qualifying saw Verstappen on pole, ahead of Norris, Antonelli and Piastri.

GP Winner

The GP was won by Piastri after Verstappen and Norris had a squabble at the start, putting Norris down to sixth, but he recovered to finish second behind Piastri, with Russell third and Verstappen fourth. The McLarens won by a big margin, over 37 seconds ahead of Russell.

2024 saw the sprint qualifying end with Verstappen on pole, from Leclerc, Perez and Ricciardo. The sprint race saw exactly the same result.

The GP was won by Norris from fifth on the grid, from pole sitter Verstappen, Leclerc and Perez. It was Norris’ first ever F1 race win and Miami will always be a special place for Norris for that reason.

It was a strange race that saw Verstappen in control until he made a mistake and hit a bollard which damaged his car. A safety car soon afterwards came at just the right time for Norris and he found himself leading, hanging on to win the race.

Happy Memories For McLaren

The two McLaren drivers have good memories of racing here, especially last year, but it has been a race marked by crashes and safety cars playing a big part in proceedings. Kimi Antonelli announced himself here in 2025, but made rookie mistakes in the races. Russell has only had one podium finish in Miami and that inter-team battle will be interesting with recent form on Antonelli’s side.

Ferrari’s best result was a second place for Leclerc in 2022, who had qualified on pole, but lost out to Verstappen.

Raikkonen will be interesting to watch. He was very quick over a flying lap here last year, but his inexperience cost him in the races. George Russell cannot be called a track specialist and he could be on the back foot again this weekend.

2026 Miami GP: The Weather

With all the hullabaloo about regulations tweaks and car developments, It is easy to forget about the usual factors, like the weather.

Friday and Saturday are going to be very hot and quite breezy. 26c on Friday and 31c on Saturday. Plenty of sunshine and the track surface is going to be scorching. Out of Mercedes comfort zone, or is that a thing of the past? The Pirelli tyres are going to be tested and it may become a major factor for the teams to deal with. Will we get mandated cooling vest regulations?

Thunderstorms

Sunday is more interesting. Thunderstorms are set to hit Miami and the conditions will be hot, overcast, humid with a 65% chance of rain.

If it does kick off, it can really come down heavy, as we saw here last year when the sprint race was delayed due to heavy rain. Charles Leclerc crashed on his out lap and he was unable to take part. The track did dry very quickly and the cars started on inters and had to switch to slicks, even during the short sprint format.

It is very possible that we will get a delayed start if there is either very heavy rain, or lightning. The later could mean the medical helicopter would be grounded, and no medical helicopter means no racing.

2026 Miami GP: Summary

McLaren are the ones to watch for me in the 2026 Miami GP. They know how to win here and if their upgrade works, then they might ask Mercedes a question.

My shortlist for the 2026 Miami GP winner? Antonelli, Piastri and Norris. Russell can’t be ruled out but as the 2.50 favourite, his value is limited.

Antonelli is a 2.88 shot and we were getting 4.00 in Japan, so his value has shrunk significantly.

Piastri is an 11.00 shot and Norris 13.00. These are the better value bets. The McLaren has been a lot slower than Mercedes in the first three races, but progress had been made in Japan. With a major upgrade, a ‘new car’ kind of upgrade, I expect McLaren to be the biggest, or not far off the biggest improver since that Japanese GP.

Attrition

This is a race where he have seen quite a few accidents and safety cars. It is a ‘street track’ and hard to recover crashed cars safely. That does push up the ‘random factor’, the same factor that won Norris the 2024 race here. The cars that can put themselves in the mix, can get lucky and this is a race where it may pay to look outside of the obvious. The best car might not win this race.

Ferrari

Ferrari have had second best car in qualifying. Leclerc 4th in all three GP qualifiers, and Hamilton 3rd in China. They are fast off the line as well and that could put them in the mix, but the layout of the track doesn’t look to be the best for a team that has struggled with straight line speed. However, they could be close enough to take advantage of any random factor.

I am a little surprised to see Piastri as the more fancied of the McLaren drivers. Piastri has outqualified Norris at all three races in 2025, but not by much, and Norris is the World Champion after all.

The 2026 Miami GP is not a race to be going in all guns blazing. It is a back-to-school weekend. There will be many ‘learnings’. The modified regulations will have some sort of impact, and then the bigger matter of the rate of development from the eleven teams.

I have not even really considered what could happen in the midfield, as there are just too many imponderables.

Extended FP1

For once, maybe the Sprint race weekend format will be a good thing. We have the extended FP1, followed by sprint qualifying, and the Sprint race. Those sessions should be informative. My plan of action is to sit back for the Sprint part of the weekend, maybe have a couple of bets if any good value is offered up, but the majority of business will be done on raceday.

I am going to have just one small speculative bet at this stage. Lando Norris is a big enough price to have a tickle. You could go with the 5.50 for a McLaren win, but I will be more ambitious (greedy?) and go for the World Champion to open his 2026 account, or at least come close.

0.5 E/W point Lando Norris to win the 2026 Miami GP @ 13.00 with Skybet,BET365, Pokerstars

-JamesPunt