2026 Open Championship Golf Preview

The final golf Major of the season comes from Royal Birkdale. James Punt is on the case and hoping to sign off with a winner, check out his 2026 Open Championship golf betting preview below.

2026 Open Championship Golf

The Open Championship vies with The Masters as the most prestigious of the four Major Championships. It is always played on true links courses around the UK. Seaside courses, which have the wind as their main defence, followed by punitive pot bunkers and undulating terrain which introduces an element of luck.

The great drive down the middle can get a kick and end up in a bunker, maybe costing a shot. It is a good test of shot making, the ability to play in windy conditions and patience to cope with any ‘bad luck’.

The Open courses can sometimes come in for criticism for being very weather dependent. It can be flat calm in the morning, but windy and wet in the afternoon, and vice-versa the next day. Players have won Opens because they got lucky with the weather and their draw. Louis Oosthuizen at St. Andrews was one.

It is a bit of a myth that links’ golf is hard for Americans because they have so few links courses and they are not used to playing the ball on the ground, or coping with the wind or the undulating nature of the terrain.

History

The first 28 winners of the Open Championship were all Scottish. The first non-British winner was Frenchman Arnaud Massy in 1907, just down the road at Royal Liverpool. Jock Hutchinson was the first American Winner in 1921. Growth in the numbers of transatlantic liners crossing the Atlantic made it much easier for the US players to come over to play in the Championship, and they did, and filled their boots. US players won ten of the next twelve Opens.

After the second world war and with improving air transport, the field became more international and we started to see South African and Australians dominate. Between 1946 and 1960 we had ten South African or Australian winners, mostly via Bobby Locke and Peter Thompson.

Golden Era

But was the United States of America who really dominated from 1970 to 1983, winning twelve from fourteen. The next eleven Opens were a golden era of different nationalities with winners from England, Scotland, Australia, Spain, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

The last 30 years are more relevant to us, with the course design and modern equipment. This period saw eighteen winners from the USA, three from Ireland, three from South Africa, two from Northern Ireland and one each from Scotland, Sweden, Australia and Italy.

The modern era has seen The Open Championship dominated by the Americans, followed by players from Ireland and South Africa. Not a single English winner since Nick Faldo in 1992. Home advantage my arse.

2026 Open Championship: The Course

This year’s venue, Royal Birkdale has hosted ten previous Open Championships, the first back in 1954. Three generations of the Hawtree family of golf course architects have worked on the course.

It is dominated by large dunes which make it ideal for spectators. After the 1991 Open, all 18 greens were rebuilt to improve drainage but since then, it remained largely untouched outside of some minor tweaks, but there have been more significant changes in advance of this year’s Championship.

The terrain is relatively flat and there are no tricky blind holes. There have been some modifications to the course since we were last here. There is a new 5th hole, and changes made to five other holes, mostly in the closing stretch.

The number of bunkers has been reduced to 110, but in reality that has been done by getting rid of many of the smaller pot bunkers and making fewer, but larger ones. It remains the most heavily bunkered course on the Open rota.

No British Birkdale Winners

Peter Thomson won the 1954 Open and won it again in 1965. The first eight winners of Opens at Birkdale were all either American, or Australian. That run was ended by Padraig Harrington in 2008. The last time the Open was held here it was won by Jordan Spieth in 2017. So, the ‘British’ Open has never been won by a British player at this venue.

The course is not long by modern standards at 7220 yards and it is a par 70. It is regarded as the ‘fairest’ course on the Open rota. South African Branden Grace shot a 62 here in 2017, which shows what can be done here if the wind doesn’t blow.

Of course, the new course alterations may change that. The general opinion of the course is that it is a fair test. A good shot gets rewarded, a slightly wide drive only goes into light rough and the greens are relatively flat. Play well, score well. But if the wind blows, it is tough.

Short Game Key

The last two winners here, Harrington and Spieth, both excelled around the greens. Solid off the teen in terms of accuracy and distance, accurate approach shots, good scrambling if needed, with a strong putting performance.

We have established that home advantage is a myth, and in recent times players who are inexperienced links players have been winning. Morikawa won on his Open debut in 2021 and Cam Smith had little Open form when he won in 2022. Scheffler was 8th on his debut and won on his fourth visit. The old days of the winner having played a lot of Opens is receding. Just being very good at golf is the key.

Recent Form

Being good at golf, and being in good form. Good recent form is the best guide as to who might win. We have had some big priced winners at the Open, the last one was Brian Harman in 2023 who was 110.00 before the off. He wasn’t a big name, but had been playing well, including a strong performance at the Scottish Open the week before.

Cam Smith had been 10th at the Scottish Open in 2022 and all the recent winners had been in great form in their recent tournaments. The Scottish Open does get a stellar field and while I don’t rate it as a proper links course, it is a 7281-yard Par 70 with fescue greens, which is not unlike Birkdale in that respect. If you get a good finish in Scotland the week before, you will have beaten a lot of very good players and the form is strong for that event.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of players who have been in great form which doesn’t help to narrow the field too much.

Weather Watch

The all-important weather forecast is for pleasant summer conditions. Mostly sunny and very warm on Friday and Saturday before cooling down for the weekend but still in the low 20s c. Winds will be moderate for all four days, slightly stronger in the afternoons, but it doesn’t look like there will be a significant morning or afternoon bias. A fair course in fair weather. It should be a cracker.

2026 Open Championship: Selections

As with all the big golf events these days, you can get various e/w terms with different firms, but I will place all my bets with Livescorebet and SpreadEx who offer competitive odds at 1/5 the odds 1-7.

I want to back American players, in great form, with some Open form and good Major form. Having played well in last weekend’s Scottish Open is a bonus. There are a lot of American golfers in great form, but one who isn’t is the 9.00 tournament favourite, Scotty Scheffler. He missed the cut last weekend for the first time in four years, which is not great preparation, and 2026 has been a bit ordinary by his standards.

Clark Can Prosper

The one that really stands out is Wyndham Clark. He won his second US Open last month, played some good stuff in Scotland last week, finishing T13. Clark has won two of his last six tournaments, and finished no worse than 13th in any of those six, so he is running very hot.

He doesn’t have a great Open record, but was T4th last year, after a four over par first round. The world number 8 can be backed at as big as 36.00, but I will take at 34.00 getting 1/5 the odds 1-7.

2026 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Wyndham Clark to win @ 34.00 with Livescorebet

Another in-form American is Chris Gotterup. He won the Scottish Open last year and turned up for his very first Open and finished T3. In the run up to this year’s Open, he won the John Deere Cassic two weeks ago and was a very decent T11 in the Scottish Open last weekend.

He is fairly new to Major championships but has had two top 10s in his last four. He is the world number 6 and looks primed for a good run.

2026 Open Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Chris Gotterup to win @ 29.00 with Livescorebet

The last of my American picks is Russell Henley. He didn’t play in Scotland last week, which isn’t ideal, but the world number five has five top 10 finishes in his last nine Majors, including back-to-back top tens in The Open. He won the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, was T3 at the Masters and finished T12th in most recent tournament, the Travelers Championship, finishing with rounds of 65 and 64.

2026 Open Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Russell Henley to win @ 46.00 with Livescorebet

Of the ‘home’ players, Rory McIlroy must have a good chance of winning this again. He had a bad third round 73 in Scotland last weekend but got himself back into contention with a final round 64. He has played a very light schedule recently but has prepared by playing various links courses, including Birkdale, and he got some scorecard pressure under his belt in Scotland.

His odds are just about good enough for a bet. He has seven top 7 finishes in the Open Championship in the last ten played, including a win. He really should have won more but at least he doesn’t have the additional burden of expectation of the tournament being played in Northern Ireland. Rory missed the cut in both 2019 and 2015 when Royal Portrush played host to The Open.

2026 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Rory McIlroy to win @ 10.00 with SpreadEx

I may end up kicking myself for not backing Matt Fitzpatrick, but you can’t back them all, and the American and Irish players have racked up the most wins in the last 30 years at The Open.

-JamesPunt