2026 Spanish GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his outright preview, see that here. Check out his 2026 Spanish GP qualifying preview and tips below.

2026 Spanish GP Qualifying

Watching the action so far from the new Madring I am reminded of the old Morecambe and Wise TV show, ‘What do you think of it so far?…Rubbish!’.

The drivers all love it, but is not a great racetrack, unless you like watching trackside crash barriers being repaired. If anyone hits the wall, it is a straight red flag and it takes a long time to repair the safety barriers. I watched the first of the F3 races earlier, and it was rubbish. No overtaking unless it was handing a place back after a driver cut the chicanes.

It might be fun for the drivers, but it isn’t fun to watch. This could be a long qualifying session. The drivers will have to push, and I would be surprised if we don’t get at least one red flag. It is a fast track and any crashes are going to be big ones. It takes a long time to recover the cars and if the barrier is damaged, even more time to fix that.

Red Flags

We had two red flags in FP3, and as a result, not a lot of track time. Hamilton caused the first one and then tried to drive his damaged car back to the pits. He was told to stop immediately but refused. Eventually he did pull over, but he will face punishment for being a dick. But at least his car will be OK.

Unlike Oliver Bearman’s. He had a big one with a few seconds of the session remaining. His team have a couple of hours to rebuild it, but it looked to be a write off, so a new chassis will be required, and that is not doable in such a short space of time.

In terms of who is looking most likely to get pole position, it looks like a battle between Antonelli fastest in FP2 and FP3. Russell was fastest in FP1, so the Mercedes does seem to be the car to beat.

Ferrari Quick

Ferrari have a quick car, but never better than 2nd quickest. Of course, they have never been better than 2nd in qualifying in 2026. McLaren had a problem with Norris’ car yesterday and he missed out on any running in FP2. He bounced back to be 4th earlier today, just behind his teammate, Oscar Piastri. They do look to be a step behind Mercedes, just by a couple of tenths. Verstappen was next best, but nearer four tenths adrift.

Best of the midfield was Lindblad. He was a mighty fourth in FP2 but ended the session in the wall and very nearly didn’t get to do any running today. The team opted not to do an overnight shift to rebuild his car and it wasn’t ready for FP3. It was only the delay caused by Hamilton’s red Flag which allowed him to get out on track, where he ended up 14th. He has a completely new chassis, so it might not be as dialled in as it was on day one.

Audi Going Well

Audi got both cars into the top 10 and have a quick car around this track. They have not yet had a qualifying session where they got both cars into Q3. I suspect they will lose out to Lindblad and only get one car in, but maybe Lindblad’s rebuilt car won’t be what it was on Friday.

Last weekend’s pole sitter, Pierre Gasly hasn’t been any better than 11th, nor has Colapinto, so the Alpine isn’t loving it here.

Summary

The track is not scoring big with me. I can see this qualifying session being ruined by a red flag, or more. Traffic is going to be a big issue and expect some hard luck stories. It really isn’t getting my punting juices flowing.

Antonelli makes the most sense to get pole position. The Mercedes has been the quickest car in all sessions so far. And Antonelli has had six poles already in 2026.

The only other pole winners have been Russell (4), Norris (2) and Gasly (1). Gasly is not in the frame this weekend. Norris has been compromised by a lack of track time and Russell has just been a bit too slow.

Antonelli is the 2.40 favourite, Leclerc 6.00, Russell 6.50, Norris 7.00, Hamilton 9.00, Verstappen 13.00 and Piastri 26.00.

2026 Spanish GP qualifying Selections

It’s a bit boring but Antonelli is the pick. Norris is almost tempting for an e/w bet at 7.00, but he has been put on the back foot by limited track time.

2026 Spanish GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli fastest qualifier @ 2.40 with SpreadEx

The Match betting is all a bit dull, but Livescorebet have matched Leclerc with Russell. Russell is 9-4 up over the season, but he has been well behind Leclerc in FP2 and FP3. The Ferrari looks quick enough maybe for a front row, and Leclerc has been the quicker of the Ferrari drivers.

2026 Spanish GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to beat George Russell @ 1.82 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt