Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips by Dave Stevos
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips and Preview
We had a rare day-off on Saturday but we are back with a bang on Sunday. At Ayr the Scottish Grand National is the feature on a superb card of jumping action. On the level, Newbury takes centre stage with another excellent card that includes the Greenham and The Spring Cup Handicap. We landed a nice 12/1 winner last weekend with Peter The Great, let’s hope for more of the same today. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newbury and Ayr Sunday tips for all live ITV races below…
1.00 Newbury – Maiden Stakes (Class 4)
An 8f maiden for 3yos only that have not run more than twice kicks off the live action on ITV. A field of 11 will line up in the stalls and the one I’ll be backing at a big price is Hiromichi for Mick Channon and David Probert. This son of Dabirsim had just one run at the backend of last season. He was beaten 10L into 4th but he showed a decent level of ability. I think he is going to be a whole lot better on decent ground.
That first run came at this track on heavy. Dabirsim has had a total of 33 winners as a sire and not one of those wins came on soft (0/23) or heavy (0/8) ground. His strike rate on good ground is much better (6/31). So, I think today’s underfoot conditions are going to suit him. David Probert takes the ride and he has two rides for these owners before. He managed to finish 2nd on one of them so hopefully he can go one better on this colt. At odds of 33/1 Hiromichi is the each way selection.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Hiromichi e/w @ 33/1
1.15 Ayr – Handicap Chase (Listed)
Only six horses have been declared for this Listed handicap chase and the bookies are taking no chances. King D’Argent and Grand Sancy head the market at 9/4 and 11/4 respectively. On paper they both hold solid chances. Some Reign is a 5/1 shot and this is far harder than his last outing.
Return Ticket also has it to prove at this level while Theinval wasn’t at his best over further here earlier this week. The 13yo Duke Of Navan is the outsider at 9/1 and the 2015 winner will have to roll back the years to get his head in front again. I see no value in the markets for this race and I’ll be giving it a miss. No Bet.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: No Bet
1.35 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Surprise Stakes (Group 3)
This 12f Group 3 for horses aged 4yo or older has attracted a field of 9. The favourite Al Aasy has to prove he is effective on good ground, as does the next best in the betting, Deja. Euchen Glen is another one that has shown his best recent form on soft. The interesting one at a decent each way price here is Tyson Fury for Richard Spencer and Kieran Shoemark.
This son of Iffraaj made a big impression when winning on debut over this trip at Doncaster on good ground. Connections pitched him in at the highest level on his next outing in the St Leger (14f gd). He didn’t get home in that contest and while he finished 9th of 11, he was only 12L behind the winner and he wasn’t disgraced.
Tyson Fury signed off the season with a narrow novice win at Ascot when dropped back to 12f. It was soft that day and his trainer said afterwards that he won in spite of the ground and not because of it. With doubts about some of the higher rated horses in these conditions I think Tyson Fury could easily run into a place at the very least here. At odds of 14/1, an each way interest is advised.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Tyson Fury e/w @ 14/1
1.50 Ayr – Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Listed)
The trip for this novices’ chase is 3 miles and 13 are due to go to post. The one I’ll be taking a chance on is Sirwilliamwallace for Sandy Thomson and Ryan Mania. This 8yo son of Getaway is still relatively unexposed over fences and he produced a career best last time here over 20f (sft). He hosed up by 10L in a 4 runner race off 119 and he is now 7lb higher. I am not sure that will be enough to stop him from hitting the frame again now he steps back up to 3 miles on better ground.
His last try at this trip came at Carlisle on soft and it looked like he didn’t get home. He still wasn’t beaten all that far in 3rd and he suffered an overreach on his next start at Kelso (22f). He has had two runs on ground with good in the description. The first was a Novice chase at Wetherby where he was having his first run back of the season and he finished well beaten behind Shan Blue.
His other run on good to soft came at this track on his racecourse debut in a bumper. He ran really well that day to finish 2L behind Nickolson in 2nd. Getaway’s progeny often like decent ground and this fella’s dam is a half-sister to a couple of quick ground winners. He is a relatively fresh horse having just his 2nd start of 2021 and at odds of 16/1 Sirwilliamwallace is the each way selection.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Sirwilliamwallace e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 places Skybet)
2.10 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Group 3)
A field of 17 3yo fillies will line up in the stalls for this cracking 7f Group 3. Some of the best form lines from last season will be put to the test. The 6f Group 1 Cheveley Park winner, Alcohol Free, heads the market on her seasonal return. The ground looks fine for her but she is by No Nay Never. So, whether this extra furlong is going to suit is up for debate. Unlike the market leader, Isabella Giles is proven at this distance. She was well beat in the Fillies’ Mile on her final run of 2020 but the drop back to 7f is firmly in her favour.
If you are looking for one at a bigger price, Aunty Bridy is an interesting contender. She showed some very decent form for Jim Bolger in Ireland last season. Her 2nd to Elysium in a Curragh G3 was the standout effort and that form has since received a big boost in Ireland. The 7th home, Keeper Of Time, won the 1000 Guineas Trial (G3) at that track last weekend. The horse that finished 3rd in the 1000 Guineas Trial, Sense of Style, finished 5th in that Curragh G3 last season.
This filly is by Camacho and her dam is a very well related daughter of Galileo. She is a half-sister to G1 winner Amadeus Wolf and G3 winner Rouleau so her daughter Aunty Bridy is certainly bred for the job. She has moved to an excellent trainer in William Haggas and he is in tip-top form. With James Doyle on board and with the form of her last run working out well, Aunty Bridy is the e/w pick at odds of 22/1.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Aunty Bridy e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
2.25 Ayr – Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2)
I put up Tommy’s Oscar for the Morebattle at Kelso and he disappointed. However, in his defence it wasn’t Danny McMenamin’s finest hour in the saddle and I do think he could have finished a bit closer to the principals with a bit more luck. The handicapper gave him a pound back after that run and he made a mockery of his rating of 132, winning a decent class 2 handicap hurdle at Kelso by nearly 5L. He had a decent sort in Christopher Wood back in 2nd and there was a 15L gap back to the 3rd.
He is back up to a mark of 138 now but as I said previously, I believe this horse is potentially a mid to high 140s horse. I love how he jumps his hurdles low and fast and also how he quickened between the final two flights to put his last race to bed. He should be a lot more streetwise now after his experience in the Morebattle and the Hamiltons would love to win this race. This better ground should suit too and at odds of 8/1, Tommy’s Oscar looks a cracking each way bet.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Tommy’s Oscar e/w @ 8/1 NAP
2.45 Newbury – Greenham Stakes (Group 3)
A decent sized field of 12 will battle it out in this year’s Greenham Stakes. The hype horse is Chindit for Dobbs and Hannon. He won his first three at 7f last year, including a G2 at Doncaster, all on fast ground. He flopped on his final start in the Dewhurst but that was on soft. Back on a sounder surface he is an obvious contender but odds of 2/1 don’t tickle my fancy.
Alkumait is a horse with a similar profile to the favourite. His wins came over 6f though and he is no banker to stay this distance. Nando Parrado is also interesting back on a sounder surface for the first time since winning at Royal Ascot. He finished 2nd on heavy over 7f in France last season and you would think he should be fine at the trip on this type of ground. Fundamental is the unknown quantity. He has won his last two on the all-weather and the booking of Frankie is eye-catching. He probably needs to improve at least 10lbs to figure though.
My idea of a bet in this race is Rhythm Master for Fahey and McDonald. This son of Dark Angel was last sighted finishing 3rd in the Mill Reef here over 6f behind Alkumait. He was 3.5L behind the winner but he was outpaced in the middle part of the race and he had to be switched to make his challenge, after which he didn’t get the clearest of runs. I think over this extra furlong he might get closer to Alkumait and with Richard Fahey’s horses in fine fettle, he could even reverse the form. At odds of 12/1, Rhythm Master is worth backing each way.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Rhythm Master e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Ayr – Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just the four will go to post for this 20f Grade 2 so it is win only. Allmankind is the class act in the field but he had a pretty hard race at Cheltenham. This trip is a worry too for this free going sort. Tamarac Du Mathan holds obvious claims after his Kempton performance last time out. He landed a Grade 2 in great style (20f gd) and he has had plenty of time to get over those exertions.
The one I’ll be backing for small stakes is Malystic. This fella ran very well behind Protektorat on his chase debut. That form was boosted at Aintree and he followed up with two very impressive wins at Wetherby and Newcastle, both on soft. He has won on good ground, and on good to soft. It was that type of ground when he chased Protektorat home.
This 7yo son of Malinas’ dam is a half sister to top class flat stayer Clever Cookie. So, this step up to 20f should suit. He ran over 19f on soft ground over hurdles and didn’t quite get home but on this kind of surface he should be fine. His rating of 147 leaves him with a bit to find with Allmankind but he carries 5lb less than him (and the 150 rated Nicholls’ horse) so it isn’t an impossible task. At odds of 11/2 a small win bet is the order of the day.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Malystic win @ 11/2
3.20 Newbury – Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2)
The final live race on ITV from Newbury is the Spring Cup Handicap. The trip is a mile and the horse I like is Gin Palace. Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton (also runs HMS President), Georgia Dobie takes the ride on this 5yo son of Swiss Spirit. He is in off a mark of 89 on his seasonal return, 6lb higher than when winning over C&D on his first run back last season. He then followed up off 87 at Newmarket, with Dobie taking off 5lb. With her claim, Gin Palace is only 1lb higher than he was for his C&D victory in 2020.
That 2020 win was his second win at Newbury from just two starts. He previously scored here on good to soft off a mark of 79. His form tailed off after his two wins last season. Now could be the best time to catch him and while HMS President is probably a shorter price because Hollie Doyle is riding, she has only ridden 3 winners for Johnson-Houghton in comparison to 31 wins for Dobie. Plenty of the yard’s runners have been knocking on the door without winning in recent weeks. Hopefully, Gin Palace can end her losing sequence at odds of 28/1.
Newbury and Ayr Sunday Tips: Gin palace e/w @ 28/1 (5 places)
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National (Grade 3)
The first one I am taking a punt on at a big price in this year’s Scottish National is Cool Mix. Trained by Iain Jardine, this fella is of interest on his eye-catching effort over 3 miles behind Yorkhill in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. He was beat just over 3L off 132 and when you consider Conor O’Farrell lost his irons for a couple of furlongs (and fences) it was a super effort. He was a course winner over hurdles back in 2018 (20f gd) and while he has yet to win over further than that, I think he is well worth giving a try at today’s marathon distance.
Cool Mix has been freshened up since finishing 3rd on soft ground at Musselburgh back in January. He has gone well after a break before. His handicap win at Wetherby when beating the then 132 rated Sky Pirate off 126 looks alright now when you consider that fella won the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off 152. Stamina is the obvious worry but if he does stay I think he is weighted to be very competitive off his current rating.
Ferry Will Love The Ground
Another fascinating runner on this good ground is The Ferry Master. Sean Quinlan gets the leg up on this lightly raced son of Elusive Pimpernel. He has had just eight runs under rules and four of them have been over fences. He won his hurdle race on heavy but his best performances by far have come on the type of ground he’ll encounter today. On his return to action he made his chase debut at Hexham (20f sft) and finished 8L back in 2nd behind El Kaldoun.
He made up for that reversal upped to 3 miles on good to soft at Kelso. He scored by 11L that day off 119 and he then followed up at Newcastle off 9lb higher (23.5f gd). The Ferry Master was due to run in the Edinburgh National on his next start but soft ground saw him withdrawn. Thomson decided to get a run into him at Haydock instead over 20f on soft, a move that saw the handicapper drop him 1lb to 133. He lacks big race experience but he carries no weight, he hails from a shrewd yard and he will relish the conditions. Off a feather weight of 10st 4lbs, The Ferry Master is worth a couple of quid e/w too at odds of 22/1.
