Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips by Dave Stevos
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips and Preview
We started well at Newmarket on Wednesday but it was downhill from there on in. Concierge landed place money for us in the opener at 25/1. Up The Straight was well backed but he ran a lifeless race and was the first one beat. Percy’s Lad was far too keen and he faded in the closing stages. Pileon showed a little bit more at Cheltenham and he is one to watch out for next season. Mamba Wamba ran a strange race. She is usually held up but she broke well, was a shade keen and Tony Hamilton took a pull to try and get her settled. It didn’t work though and she finished in rear. We are back in action at the same tracks on Thursday, check out Dave Stevos’ Cheltenham and Newmarket tips below…
1.50 Newmarket – Bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
A 6f handicap for 3yos only kicks off the live ITV racing action on Thursday afternoon. Nine are due to go to post and it really is a tricky puzzle. Plenty of these are having their first runs of the season but one that won’t lack for race sharpness is Bravado. Trained by in-form Mark Johnston, this son of Showcasing won his only turf start last season on soft ground at Redcar (6f). That form is pretty ordinary but his all-weather runs in January and February were very promising.
He won at Lingfield in a handicap off 86 and then he stepped up on that next time at Kempton. He was less than 2L behind the 103 rated winner Mighty Gurkha (in receipt of 5lbs) and he was 1.5L behind the 100 rated Zamaani off level weights. Bravado closed the gap to that rival to a neck on his next outing at Newcastle. He admittedly disappointed in the big one at the All-Weather Championships. However, he has enough form in the book to suggest that his mark of 93 may not be beyond him.
The big question is whether this horse is going to be as effective on quick turf. His pedigree offers hope that he might handle it. His sire’s progeny have a 25% strike rate on good to firm. Also, his Kendargent dam’s full sister won on good ground in France. Mark Johnston’s horses are flying, the return to handicap company should suit and at 14/1, Bravado is the e/w pick.
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips: Bravado e/w @ 14/1
2.05 Cheltenham – Fillies’ Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
One that looks potentially well treated on her flat form is Table Mountain for Ben Poste and Tom Symonds. This daughter of Phoenix Reach won off a mark of 82 at Ascot on the level last season (16f gd/fm). She ended up rated 91 in that sphere but she hasn’t transferred that ability to this discipline yet.
However, she has had excuses. There has been soft in the ground description for three of her four runs over hurdles. The only time she has got her ground she ran very well to finish 2nd in a maiden hurdle at Doncaster (16.5f gd). That was admittedly a fairly ordinary race but it was a big improvement on her previous two outings. She now makes her handicap debut off a lowly mark of 106 and she carries a feather weight of just 10 stone. Surely she will prove to be better than that mark given her flat form. At odds of 15/2, Table Mountain is the e/w pick.
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips: Table Mountain e/w @ 15/2
2.25 Newmarket – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3)
A field of 11 3yos will line up in the stalls for the 8f Wood Ditton maiden. This is a race for horses that haven’t had a run so there is zero form to go on. Some of these are beautifully bred and the pedigree that jumped out at me most was Peter The Great’s. This colt is a son of top class sire New Approach and his dam is extremely well related. She is by Giant’s Causeway and she is a full sister to the top class 2yo and former 2000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand.
Her half-brother Pedro The Great won a Group 1 as a 2yo. Her half-sister Belle D’Or was a 3yo Listed winner over a mile at Sandown. John and Thady Gosden also run Ironside for Godolphin. However, he has already been gelded, hardly a good sign for a horse that cost 500k as a yearling. Nicky Mackay has 4 wins and 9 places from 23 rides for the Oppenheimers, a decent strike rate. At odds of 12/1, Peter The Great is a speculative e/w selection.
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips: Peter The Great e/w @ 12/1
2.40 Cheltenham – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
The one I like at a half decent e/w price in this Listed heat is She’sasupermack for Iain Jardine and Conor O’Farrell. This 8yo mare has been chasing this season and she is rated 132 over the bigger obstacles. She returns to hurdling off a 5lb lower mark and 3lb lower than the rating she last won a chase off at Newcastle. I think the key to this mare is 20f and good ground. She gets her optimum conditions at Cheltenham.
Her last win came on soft ground over 20f at Newcastle but her form on ground with good in the description at that distance is quality. She has form figures of 3112 on good ground over 20f. The two wins came over hurdles by 9L at Ayr and by the same distance at Worcester. This will be her first run at Cheltenham but she has won twice at Newcastle over 20f. That is a similarly stiff and testing track.
Connections would love to get some black type for their mare and I would imagine Conor O’Farrell will take his time on her and ride her to finish well and hopefully in the first three. On her best form she is more than capable of going close off a mark of 127. At odds of 16/1 She’sasupermack is the each way selection.
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips: She’sasupermack e/w @ 16/1 NB (4 places Betfair Sportsbook)
3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes (Group 3)
With a rating of 120, 11lb higher than anything else, Oxted is the one to beat here. Roger Teal’s stable star will have the assistance of Ryan Moore in the plate and he won this race last year before going on to take the G1 July Cup. The speedy son of Mayson will enjoy the ground but he is unlikely to be fully revved up for this race. His main targets will be later in the season so this may not be the day to be lumping on at a short price.
Emaraaty Ana could be the one to benefit if Oxted isn’t at his brilliant best. This son of Shamardal finished 3rd behind Teal’s horse in this race last season, beaten by 4L. However, that was his first outing of the season. This time, he has had the benefit of a run at Doncaster. That was a pleasing first effort of the season and the wind operation he had seemed to work very well.
Emaraaty Ana was beat just 1.75L in that Listed heat and he was 2L ahead of Summerghand. It was his best run since his juvenile days and if he can build on it he should be well capable of getting into the money here. It isn’t ideal that only seven horses run but I think Emaraaty Ana can prove to be best of the rest if Oxted is on his game. If the fav fluffs his lines, Kevin Ryan’s charge could get his head in front. At odds of 15/2 an each way interest is advised.
Cheltenham and Newmarket Tips: Emaraaty Ana e/w @ 15/2
3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes (Group 3)
Masar, Toormore, Toronado, Elusive Pimpernel, Delegator. They are just some of the horses that have landed this Group 3 over the years before going on to achieve bigger and better things in the future. Is there another potential superstar in this year’s Craven field? It is very hard to know but in my opinion, this doesn’t look like the best renewal ever. Master Of The Seas was beat by Naval Crown in Meydan last time out so the fact that his conqueror was turned over in a listed handicap here on Wednesday hardly bodes well for his chances.
Charlie Appleby also trains the second favourite, La Barrosa. James Doyle rides this son of Lope De Vega and his Group 3 win came at this track over 7f. He came up short in a French G1 on his final outing of the season but in his defence, the ground was horrible. Sandhurst (Dettori) and Khartoum (Moore) head the Ballydoyle challenge. Moore’s mount is shorter in the betting but he is taking a massive step up in class. He scored in a soft ground Curragh maiden back in October and it will be interesting to see how he gets on upped in grade on faster ground. Frankie’s mount also won his maiden last October at Gowran on heavy ground after he was beat on good at Leopardstown on debut. This ground should suit on his pedigree and a big run would come as no surprise.
Akmaam Looks Overpriced
The interesting one for me at around 11/1 is Akmaam for Meehan and Crowley. This son of Wootton Bassett made a big impression when winning on debut at Ascot (7f gd). That form hasn’t worked out but the form of his next run in the Autumn Stakes over today’s C&D most certainly did. Akmaam finished 5th that day but it was a much better run than his finishing position suggests. The ground was soft, which wasn’t ideal, but he travelled well and when Crowley got stuck into him he showed a willing attitude all the way to the line.
One Ruler won that race and he pushed Mac Swiney all the way in the G1 Vertem Futurity on his final run last season. Van Gogh was runner up and he hosed up by 4L in the G1 Criterium International on his next start. The 4th home, Megallan, won a Listed heat at Newcastle earlier this month so it really does look like rock solid form. Meehan reports that he is very happy with his charge ahead of his seasonal bow and at odds of 10/1 Akmaam is the e/w NAP of the day.
