2021 Irish Guineas Weekend Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Irish Guineas Weekend Curragh Preview And Tips
This weekend is a big one on the Irish racing calendar. It is 1000 and 2000 Guineas weekend at the Curragh and both races look extremely competitive affairs. We backed Lucky Vega at big odds for the English 2000 Guineas and he will be looking to improve on his close 3rd placed finish. We were out of luck in the 1000 Guineas with Thunder Beauty so hopefully we get a much better run for our money in the Irish renewal. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2021 Irish Guineas Weekend preview and tips below.
Saturday: 2000 Guineas
First up this Saturday at the Curragh are the boys for the 2000 Guineas. At the time of writing just 14 horses remained and the ground is yielding to soft. However, with up to 20mm of rain forecast on Thursday and Friday, the ground is likely to deteriorate even further. That could be an issue for our Newmarket fancy, Lucky Vega. He proved he stayed a mile on good to firm last time but very soft ground would be a different proposition. He has won on good to yielding over 6f and he has placed on yielding over that distance too. However, whether he will be able to showcase his electric turn of foot on testing ground is up for debate.
One horse who is going to relish the forecast rain is Mac Swiney. We backed him at Newmarket last season when he landed the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster (8f hvy). He disappointed on better ground behind Bolshoi Ballet on his sole start this term at Leopardstown (10f gd). However, he should be much more comfortable on soft/heavy ground. He remains unbeaten in two runs (G1 and G2) on that type of a surface. Jim Bolger has long thought of this son of New Approach as a Derby Type so the drop back in distance is a slight concern. However, if the ground brings stamina into play, Mac Swiney is capable of going close at around 10/1.
Interesting Outsider
At a colossal price, Joe Murphy’s Agrimony is worth a second look. This thrice raced son of Pivotal is very highly thought of by connections and the Derby is on his radar. All three of his outings have come in maiden company and he got off the mark at Gowran Park last time out (8f yld). That form has yet to be really tested but his 2L 2nd to Wordsworth at this track on his seasonal return looks alright now. The winner was beat just a neck in a Listed heat at Navan next time and he is entered in the Irish Derby.
Clearly, this represents a massive step up in class for Agrimony. The son of Pivotal is attractively bred. He is out of a Dansili dam who is a full sister to a G2 winner in Australia. His sire has an excellent record with his runners on soft ground and his half brother War Brigade is a soft ground winner too. He should get further than a mile in time but for now, this trip on testing ground could be ideal. Odds of 50/1 look generous about Agrimony and he is also worth chancing each way.
2021 Irish Guineas Weekend Tips: Mac Swiney e/w @ 10/1; Agrimony e/w @ 50/1
2021 Irish Guineas Weekend: 1000 Guineas
On Sunday the fillies take the stage for the 1000 Guineas. The O’Briens dominate the head of the market. Aidan has the 2/1 favourite Joan Of Arc, Joseph has Pretty Gorgeous (9/4) and Donnacha runs Shale (11/2). All three handle soft ground and all three ran very nice races on their seasonal returns. Pretty Gorgeous and Shale have already locked horns more than once and the current score between them is 2-2. It would be no surprise if they came to the fore again but the bookies are taking no chances and I’ll try to nick some each way money with one at a bigger price.
Lady Looks Interesting
The one that appeals most at the odds is Fantasy Lady. Trained by the ultra-shrewd Paddy Twomey, this daughter of Dark Angel is another that will appreciate underfoot conditions. She was 4.5L behind Joan Of Arc in the trial for this at Leopardstown. However, she was slowly away, she made her challenge on the wide outside and it looked like Billy Lee didn’t really get stuck into her until inside the furlong marker. When he gave her a couple of smacks she stayed on strongly and on another day, she would have got a lot closer to the impressive winner who enjoyed a dream passage.
She was given a similarly tender ride on her seasonal return at Naas. Again, she was held up for a late run and she only really hit top gear in the closing stages. I am hoping this filly gets a properly strong pace to aim at on Sunday. She was a Listed winner over C&D last season on soft and the more rain that falls, the better her chance will be. I doubt that Billy Lee will be as easy on her as he was on her last two outings and at odds of 25/1, she is worth taking a chance on each way.
