2021 British GP Preview and Betting Tips

The 2021 British GP will be the first race to feature a sprint race qualifying system. The timetable for the weekend has a different look to it with just one free practice session on Friday afternoon, followed by the ‘normal’ qualifying session at 6pm. It is not quite normal qualifying as only the soft compound tyres will be used in all three Q’s. This will be used to set the grid for the Sprint race which will take place after second and final free practice session on Saturday. The result of the sprint race will determine the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

The teams all know Silverstone well and have lots of data to draw on, but they will only have one hour of practice to try and hone their best set up for the initial qualifying session. That is not a lot of time and if anyone has a mechanical problem or an accident in FP1 then they will be compromised and the engineers will hate having so little time to prepare. The cars set up will be fixed from Friday’s qualifying onwards, so no adjustments for the rest of the weekend from that point. All the drivers will have a free choice of tyre compound on which to start Sunday’s race and not just the usual drivers outside the top 10.

2021 British GP: New Sprint Race

The sprint race concept may not shake up the grid order for Sundays Grand Prix, but the lack of practice time might.

The sprint race will not feature any compulsory pit stops and the driver can choose whatever of the three available tyre compounds to use for the 100km, 17 lap race. That choice may not be straight forward after just an hour’s practice. Get it wrong and you could struggle in the sprint and have a worse starting position as a result.

This is effectively an experiment to see if the concept proves to ‘add value’ to a Grand Prix weekend, to give more entertainment and engage with fans with a short attention span. We shall just have to see how it goes. I do not expect it to produce a huge shake up of the formbook. The faster cars will be at or near the front and the slower cars the back. Yes, some drivers may crash out and have to start from the back, but that can happen in ‘normal’ qualifying.

Race Pace v 1 Lap Pace

Some cars have tended to have better race pace than one lap pace and that is one thing that might change the order slightly. The same goes for some drivers. Sergio Perez has underperformed in qualifying compared to his race performances, the same goes for Ricciardo and McLaren do go better in the races than in qualifying, although Norris was very quick in qualifying in races in Austria. Pierre Gasly has been very competitive in regular qualifying but less so over a race distance. The opposite is true of his teammate Tsunoda so this new system might bring the two closer together. At Ferrari, Sainz might benefit while it may hurt Leclerc a little. It may be a small gain for Alpine. We shall see.

Past form has not been a great guide to this year’s form. Red Bull are now the dominant team and Mercedes fortress after Mercedes fortress have fallen and Silverstone may be another.

Mercedes will be bringing an updated package for this weekend in an attempt to close the gap to Red Bull. They will be particularly concerned by the lack of practice time. Normally they would have three, hour long sessions to fit the new parts, maybe do some back to back runs with the old parts and so on. They will not have that luxury this weekend. The upgrade is a bit of a two edged sword for them.

Home Comforts For Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton has dominated his home grand prix in the turbo hybrid era winning six of the eight races here (there were two races here last year) but Red Bull made inroads on Mercedes dominance here last year. Hamilton finished the first race on three wheels after a tyre failure on the last lap. The same problem had affected Bottas and it left Verstappen reeling Hamilton in but just running out of time and finishing a close second. The following weekend saw Mercedes having to be more conservative with the tyres, and it was Verstappen who took the win with ease.

The legacy of those tyre failures is that Pirelli are running the new construction of tyre, which was tested in Austria, for this race weekend. It will be the same for everyone and everyone got to test the tyre but again it is not ideal for Mercedes, having a relatively new tyre on an upgraded car, with so little free practice.

One driver who has performed well at Silverstone is Esteban Ocon with four top 8 finishes from four starts. It will be interesting to see how he goes on a favoured track, given his poor recent performances. Alpine are taking no chances and are giving Ocon a brand new chassis just in case his recent dip in form is down to a problem with the car.

Leclerc Likes It Here

Charles Leclerc has finished 3rd, 3rd, 4th in the last three races here, so even in last years dog, he got the job done. Teammate Carlos Sainz has not enjoyed much success at Silverstone in the past with just two top 10 finishes and a best of sixth in 2019.

The Silverstone circuit is quite different to the go-kart track like Red Bull ring. That rewarded straight line speed and helped McLaren to go so well there. Silverstone is all about high speed performance, but with much more in the way of high speed corners and very little braking. It will be interesting to see how Ferrari get on. They struggled in France in the long duration corners and the weather forecast for this weekend is for sunny, dry and temperatures around 26 degrees all weekend, with Sunday to see a peak of 28 degrees. It will be breezy, especially on Friday and Saturday so don’t expect Williams to go as well here as in Austria.

Overtaking is not easy thanks to the lack of braking, so any overtakes are likely to be DRS assisted. The pole position driver has won half of the eight turbo hybrid era races here, two from second place, one form sixth and last year from fourth. The attrition rate has fallen in recent years and the two races here last year saw a total of just three drivers not classified as finishers.

Ante Post selections

With the sprint race introducing a greater degree of uncertainty to the weekend, it may be best to keep our powder dry until after Friday’s normal qualifying defines which cars are going to perform well and who might be in a bit of trouble. But there are a couple of speculative bets which can be placed now.

Hopefully the sprint race will help those drivers who are struggling with the normal qualifying sessions. Daniel Ricciardo is one of those and despite an average grid position of 10.66 he has had five top 7 and three top 6 finishes. He is making up nearly two places over a race distance and if he can use the sprint race to put himself higher up the grid than he has been recently, then he should improve his chances of another top 6 finish on Sunday. McLaren have had a car in the top 6 at every race so far, so they have a good car for all kind of tracks.

2021 British GP Tip: 2 points Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 @ 2.25 with Unibet

Esteban Ocon had a good start to the season with four consecutive points finishes from Imola to Monaco but been nowhere since. He has failed to get out of Q1 at the last two races having been as high as the third row in Portugal and Spain. A total overhaul of his car, including a new chassis, before this race might be the key to getting him back to where he should be and that is scoring points. He has never finished worse than eighth here from four starts so he clearly likes the track and his performances here in the junior formula saw podium finishes.

2021 British GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 2.87 with Ladbrokes

As for the odds for the race itself, Verstappen, who but for a late tyre blow out in Baku, would have won the last five races in a row, is the 1.73 favourite. Lewis Hamilton, now 32 points behind Verstappen, needs the Mercedes upgrade to get him back to being able to compete. He is the 2.75 second favourite. He is not without a chance, if the upgrade gives him two or three tenth’s but Mercedes say the changes are quite modest. I would want to see odds of nearer to 3.75 before considering Hamilton. The Red Bull is a very versatile car and as Christian Horner has said, they should have nothing to fear.

We can revisit the outright betting on Sunday, but the bookies have got a firm grip on Verstappen’s chances now.

One more bet for the race is in number of drivers to be classified market. We have seen a total of just eight DNF’s from the last seven races combined. The reliability of the cars has never been better and with drivers under strict instruction not to needlessly damage their cars, thanks to the budget cap, they do seem to be trying to bring in cars home in one piece. Backing over 17.5 finishes has paid out in eight of the nine races so far this season, the last seven in a row and the last two at Silverstone.

2021 British GP Tip: 2 points over 17.5 finishers @ 1.83 with Betvictor, Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt