2021 US GP Raceday Update

Another Mercedes fortress has had its walls breeched. Now the question is, can the Red Bulls finish the job? Find out in James Punt’s 2021 US GP Raceday Update.

For once, Sergio Perez came to the party in qualifying. He was quickest in FP2 and FP3 and was very much in contention for pole position, before his final Q3 time was pipped by Verstappen and Hamilton.

We now have the unusual sight of a Mercedes in a Red Bull sandwich. Hamilton has Verstappen ahead and Perez behind, and both are on the clean side of the racetrack.

Mercedes had looked untouchable after FP1, and all the talk was about their fancy rear suspension trick which is giving them a straight-line speed advantage. What they were not talking about is that this track is not all about straight line performance. The time spent going through the series of esses in sector one and the twisty, slow third sector makes up more of the lap time than the long straight in sector two. Red Bull were able to improve their car and were faster in FP2, more so because of the high temperatures causing Mercedes rear tyres to overheat.

By FP3 the Red Bull looked the better car and after qualifying, the Mercedes personnel looked stunned, and worried. They know that the next two races are Red Bull strongholds, and this is a must win race for them.

2021 US GP Raceday: Reliability Issues Mercedes

Mercedes is further worried by the poor reliability of their engines. Bottas has been given his sixth ICU of the season and must take a five-place grid penalty today. It seems only a matter of time before Hamilton must do the same thing. The Mercedes power units in Vettel’s Aston Martin and George Russell’s Williams have also been replaced. You have to wonder if Hamilton will be able to run his power unit at full tilt this afternoon?

Fernando Alonso has changed his Renault/Alpine power unit, but this was on the grounds of performance rather than unreliability. The team felt that they are not as competitive as expected here and after Friday’s free practice, decided here would be a good place to take the pain and have a more powerful car for the race and rest of the season. He will start at the back and effectively ends our hope of a top six finish. To be honest, that looked out of reach after the lack of pace from both Alpines on Friday.

Tyre Durability Key

Tyres and being able to make them last is going to be one of the big issues here today. The weather is set to be hot; the surface is abrasive, and the corners are punishing the tyres. It seems that a two-stop race will be the norm but no doubt some drivers will try to one stop, most likely drivers nearer the back.

Another feature of the race will be reliability across the board. We have the Mercedes power units struggling and we had both Red Bulls having their rear wing supports being strengthened after a crack was spotted on Verstappen’s car. He has suffered the same problem here in the past, so it is not a complete surprise. The bumps in the track are tough on the drivers and the cars. Mercedes have had to take steps to make sure that the cars can finish the race. This has impacted on their performance and that is just another negative for Mercedes this weekend.

Dilemma For Hamilton

It looks like Mercedes and Hamilton have a bit of a dilemma. The car is taking a pounding on the bumps, the power unit is creaking and their rear tyres may force a two stopper even with Hamilton’s prowess in tyre management. The Red Bull was the faster car on the long runs on Friday, and Mercedes have had to take a step backwards since then.

Do they let Hamilton go flat out in an attempt to beat Verstappen, or do they take this one on the chin and concentrate on making sure Hamilton finishes the race? Drive more conservatively, look after the tyres, the power unit and the car? Just try and hang on to second place, hope that Verstappen has a problem? Maybe but having Perez up his chuff makes that harder.

Hamilton has a chance to take the lead on the first corner. The track is wide, and he can try and throw one up the inside of Verstappen, he has done that before here, pushing Rosberg wide and off the track. That carries its own risk, and he has the disadvantage of starting on the dirty side of the track and it is the Red Bulls who have generally been better off the line.

Verstappen Can Control The Race

It seems more likely that Verstappen can get the better start and control the race from the front. Hamilton will have to be wary of Perez. Verstappen’s wingman is not in the title race, and he is not going to give Hamilton an easy time if they go wheel to wheel. It is Hamilton who needs a clean race and to maximise his points scored.

It seems like Red Bull are holding the aces today.

Verstappen starts as the 1.85 favourite and Hamilton at 2.60. We have already backed Verstappen at 2.75 so fingers crossed that he gets a clean start and can control the race from there.

The battle for third place in the constructor’s championship is every bit as compelling as Red Bull vs. Mercedes and today we have the two Ferrari’s starting fourth and fifth and the two McLaren’s sixth and seventh. Advantage Ferrari? Probably not.

Carlos Sainz set his best time in Q2 on the soft tyre. The plan was then to switch him to the mediums at the end of the session when the track should have been quicker. Unfortunately, it wasn’t and Sainz is stuck with his best time being on the soft tyre. That will help him at the start, but the soft tyre is not expected to be a good race tyre, certainly not in hot conditions and on a heavy fuel load. It is likely Sainz must pit earlier and lose track position as a result. That is not the end of the world on this track, but his is not the best position to be in strategically.

Nothing In It

The two teams looked very close in terms of long run pace on the medium tyres, but the Ferrari looked not as well balanced over the kerbs. The McLaren is usually just a little better on long run pace than one lap pace, the Ferrari a little slower over the race distance compared to one lap pace. With Sainz being compromised on strategy, I expect McLaren to score more points, but it will be fascinating to see who finishes ahead.

Daniel Ricciardo qualified ahead of teammate Norris for just the sixth time in 2021. He starts sixth and he has converted three of his four previous top six starts into a top six finish, missing out by one place in the season opener in Bahrain. He might struggle to keep Norris behind him, but he has the better tyre strategy than Carlos Sainz which gives him the opportunity to stay top six. However, he will have Bottas coming through and he may be more likely to finish seventh than sixth. His odds of just 2.20 look a touch short.

With all the various penalties, we have a few drivers out of position. Some artificially high such as Giovinazzi and other artificially low, most notably Bottas in ninth and Alonso and Vettel in nineteenth and eighteenth respectively. Bottas should quickly get past Gasly in the Alpha Tauri which was over 1.5 seconds slower than the Mercedes on the long runs.

2021 US GP Raceday: Big Gap

The gap between the big two teams and the rest of the field looks very big this weekend. The Ferrari and McLaren were over 0.5 seconds off Mercedes on Friday and while that will have closed due to Mercedes having to go defensive to aid reliability, Bottas should be able to get up to fourth place reasonably quickly. It might take more out of his tyres of course and a podium finish will require something to go wrong for the top three on the grid.

The two Alpha Tauris start in the top 10 for only the fifth time and they have only turned that situation into a double points finish once, in Azerbaijan.

The top 10 on the grid will all start on the medium tyre, with the exception of Sainz, so the strategic advantage of those outside the top 10 is less than it usually would be. The medium tyre is the best one for the race and I suspect that most drivers outside the top ten will choose it. Some may try the hard compound and try and run a one stop race but that would be quite a challenge and not necessarily the best option.

Big Performances Needed From Also rans

Usually, we would have a four or five of the top 10 stating on the soft tyre and being vulnerable to the cars outside the top 10 starting on a more durable tyre and making up places at the pit stop. That is not the case today. The likes of Ocon, Giovinazzi and Stroll would normally be strong contenders for a points finish, but they are going to have to do it on performance rather than strategy today. Ocon has been finishing the sessions in the 10-12 position range and the Alpine doesn’t have the expected pace this weekend. Their long run pace on Friday was quite good and Ocon should be able to make a little progress. He is odds on to finish in the points and no value.

Giovinazzi was top 10 in both sessions on Friday but dropped back to the mid-teens yesterday. His only points finish was at Monaco where he qualified tenth and he is not a driver who makes much progress over a race distance. Lance Stroll starts thirteenth after a poor qualifying left him sixteenth and out in Q1. He can be a very good starter and if he can get a good start, he might be able to challenge for points, but the Aston Martin hasn’t looked competitive so far. He was sixth in FP but both he and Vettel never really looked like top 10 material since.

2021 US GP Raceday: One Stopper?

Vettel and Alonso start eighteenth and nineteenth respectively and the two old dogs might just have the wherewithal to pull off a one stopper. Alonso will have a brand-new power unit and he can give it a bit more juice than Ocon ahead of him. His race craft is excellent and he had a good race at Imola where he started fifteenth and finished tenth. He isn’t afraid to have a go on the opening lap and he has made some spectacular starts this season. His race pace should be competitive to allow to get through the Haas, Williams and Alfa Romeo’s ahead of him but getting all the way to tenth? He would likely need some luck. His best price is 2.60 to finish in the top ten, but that is just a little too short.

There is very little of interest betting wise today. It just hasn’t panned out as good betting heat but there are two bets in the side markets which might be a bit of value.

The track is a bit of a car breaker and it also encourages real racing, more wheel to wheel stuff than many tracks and over the years we have seen plenty of coming togethers. The average retirement rate here in the turbo hybrid era is 4.17 and only in 2019 have we seen less than three not classifieds. Reliability in 2021 has been phenomenal with just two races seeing more than three drivers not classified. The crazy wet weather pile up in Hungary and the Italian GP when Verstappen and Hamilton took each other out and two other retirements. Will that trend continue, or will this track show its teeth again? It is worth chancing the later for a modest stake.

2021 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point under 17.5 classified finishers @ 2.20 with Unibet

The winning margin bet is not one I usually look at but there is so little of interest, every stone is being upturned. In the six races here in the turbo hybrid era we haven’t had many wide margin winners. Only one of the six saw a winning margin of more than six seconds. With today’s race being as much to do with tyre management than pure speed, I can see whoever is leading trying to just keep out of DRS range and look after their tyres as much as possible, and that means not thrashing it even if you can. It makes sense to be conservative and the two top teams look fairly closely matched in any case.

2021 US GP Raceday Tip: 2 points winning margin to be under 6 seconds @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt