2021 Saudi Arabian GP Preview

With the two Championships going down to the wire, this weekend sees the penultimate race. The first 2021 Saudi Arabian GP will be held on a track that was a building site just a few days ago. As the Saudis try and move on from a fossil fuel producing economy, to a mixed economy, they are trying to put the county on the tourist map. Yes, you can fly out to Jeddah, where going out on the lash has a very different meaning.

Do not be surprised if we find sessions interrupted. Any new builds have snags but there have been no other races held here to try and find them. Of course, Formula 1 cars do tend to find any weak points. Drain covers on new tracks are often a weak point. If the cars start to suck them up, then you have a problem. The FIA are breaking their own rules regarding now soon a circuit must be finished before a race takes place. Those regulations are there to help identify any potential problems before they crop up on the race weekend.

2021 Saudi Arabian GP: New Tarmac Issues?

Then there is the nature of the tarmac. We have seen in Turkey and Portugal last year, that new tarmac can be problematic. Oily and low on grip. I believe the plan is to water blast it this week, the same treatment that they carried out on the Turkish GP circuit this year. Hopefully that will work, but we will have to wait and see.

The circuit itself is very hard to make a judgement on as we have seen zero racing on it. There are computer simulations which tell us that it will be fast, very fast, but overtaking? That doesn’t look like it will be easy at all.

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit will be the fastest street circuit in the world and the second longest lap on the calendar. Think Monza speed with Spa Francorchamps length. That sounds promising. There is due to be three DRS zones, which rings alarm bells re how hard overtaking will be if they are trying to make it happen with DRS.

There are 27 corners, but most of them are not really corners, more like curves. Think of Maggots and Becketts the Suzuka esses. The cars will be flat out and just doing gentle left, right manoeuvres. It is not a street circuit in the traditional sense, there is only one 90-degree corner nor any really slow ones. Red Bull have won both the two street races this season. However, I don’t think we can read too much into that.

Confined Track

The track is lined by concrete walls and very confined. The Qatar circuit used in the last race was set in a wide-open space with masses of run off areas. This is more like Monaco and Azerbaijan. There is no room for error. Hit the wall here and the games up. There is a lot of Tech Pro barriers to absorb the impact of cars hitting the walls. They work well but need replacing when hit. Expect plenty of yellow flags as cars are removed and the track furniture repaired.

Will it work? We will only find out as the weekend unfolds but this could have the boredom factor of Monaco, just a lot faster. Qualifying will be especially important if overtaking is as hard as it looks it will be. Conversely it could turn out to be a thriller, in the same way that the Baku circuit can produce surprise results because of the chaotic nature of the races, caused by crashes and red flags.

Conditions Should Suit Hamilton

Which teams and drivers are likely to be favoured by this circuit? That is the big question and one which is hard to answer. The general view is that Mercedes/Hamilton should be in good shape. He will be using the new power unit last seen in Brazil. A lot of people think that this unit is extra special and extra powerful. No, it isn’t. It has fewer miles on the clock so is relatively more powerful compared to Bottas’ older units, but it the same design as always. It was flattered by the nature of the Sao Paulo circuit, but Mercedes’ straight line speed is more about their suspension and rear wing working very effectively.

Mercedes were not any faster on the straights in Qatar. There is speculation that this was because the FIA had more stringent tests on the rear wings and Mercedes had to make sure their wing didn’t fail those tests. At Red Bull, they have their own rear wing issues. In Brazil and Qatar, the top element of their rear wing was oscillating. This wasn’t a trick to gain performance, it was costing them time. The team were forced to switch to the wing they used in Mexico. A big unit with more drag. This didn’t help with top end speed and didn’t help with the balance.

Red Bull Could Be in Trouble

It ended up with Mercedes in a comfortable place and Red Bull compromised. Hopefully for Red Bull, they will have been able to fly in some new parts and not have to run an unsuitable wing, but at this late stage of the season, it may be too late to be designing and manufacturing new parts. This track looks to be tending towards a low downforce set up. So, if Red Bull have to use their big wing, they are in serious trouble.

Red Bull are not too shabby in fast, sweeping corners as we saw in Texas. The series of left – right curves there saw the Red Bulls faster than the Mercedes, a large part of them pulling off the win. There are a lot of flat-out corners, sorry, curves, here which they should be OK on. But so should Mercedes. Again, we must wait and see.

Lewis Hamilton has a good record when it comes to visiting brand new venues. Valtteri Bottas is very good on low grip circuits and on new tarmac that could be the case here is weekend. The Finn is in good form but is having to play a support role to Hamilton, in the races at least, but Bottas must be considered for pole position.

The fact is that we don’t know if the track will significantly favour one team more than another. Free practice is likely to give some pointers, as was the case in Qatar.

2021 Saudi Arabian GP: Momentum With Hamilton

In terms of recent form, the momentum is with Hamilton. Over the season it has been nip and tuck in qualifying with seven poles each. They have lined up beside each other eleven times and in all the last four, but Hamilton has started ahead of Verstappen in five of the last six races. On a track where grid position looks to be important, that may be significant.

In terms of finishing positions, both Hamilton and Verstappen have an average finishing position of 2.94 over the whole season. Over the last six it is 3-3 in terms of who has finished ahead but in the last two, Hamilton has won both from pole position, Verstappen, starting and finishing directly behind him. The same again this weekend, and we would head to Abu Dhabi with Verstappen’s lead down to 2, 1 or zero, depending on who gets the fastest lap. Verstappen can be crowned champion this weekend if he wins and Hamilton is seventh or lower, sixth or lower if Verstappen gets fastest lap.

The momentum is with Hamilton, but he remains under pressure to have a tidy race and stay out of trouble. He needs to shrink the gap or the pressure in Abu Dhabi will be greater still. Whilst Verstappen still has a points advantage, it is he who can be more robust on the track in any wheel to wheel battles.

2021 Saudi Arabian GP: Constructor’s Championship Close

The Constructor’s Championship is even closer with just a five-point lead for Mercedes after Bottas retired in Qatar. Perez is pulling his weight in the Red Bull after a poor season up until Turkey. Since then, he has finished in the top four for the last five races. Consequently, the momentum in the constructor’s championship is with Red Bull. That would seem to be counter intuitive with Hamilton dominating the last two races but reflects Bottas’ struggles in the races.

The bookmakers have made their minds up that this race will be won by Lewis Hamilton. He is a best priced 1.50 favourite, which must be the shortest ante post price of the season. A true reflection of the performance of the two cars, or just a return to an assumption that Hamilton will win because he always does? I would suggest the latter.

There is a school of thought which says that the nature of the Sao Paulo circuit, combined with a power unit for Hamilton, found the Mercedes hitting the sweetest of sweet spots. While in Qatar, the Red Bull was not suited by the track being very hard on the front tyres. Generally, Mercedes struggle on rear limited tracks, Red Bull on front limited tracks. Qatar was expected to be rear limited, but to Pirelli’s surprise it was front limited, the reason why we saw front tyre failures late in the race.

Verstappen Odds Tempting

Verstappen could not get his car to rotate the way he likes as he couldn’t get the front end to work the way it usually does. Mercedes on the other hand didn’t have any bother with the rears and Hamilton got a great balance on his car. Memories are short and Red Bull’s win in Texas and stroll in the park win in Mexico, seem to have been forgotten. Red Bull’s rear wing problem and finding a fix for it, is very likely to decide how competitive they are, rather than Hamilton’s power unit.

It is tempting to take the price on Verstappen, but this is a race that demands that our bets are placed after seeing at least the first two practice sessions.

Outside of the championship battles, we have Ferrari on the verge of ending McLaren’s third place aspirations. The Italian team lead by 39.5 points as McLaren have scored just four points from the last three races. From a 1-2 in Italy and pole position in Russia, McLaren have managed just one top 6 finish from the last five races.

Ferrari Have Found Consistency

Ferrari have been more consistently competitive since their power unit upgrade, and they have managed seven top 6 finishes in the same period. They have been competitive just about anywhere and there is no reason why they won’t be here. The layout of the track, however, does look a lot more McLaren friendly. They won at Monza and this track is looks like placing similar demands on the car. McLaren qualified fourth and fifth there, with the two Ferraris sixth and seventh. McLaren improved on that in the sprint race, Ricciardo started second and took the lead on lap 1.

Alpine have moved 25 points clear of Alpha Tauri in the battle of fifth place. Alpha Tauri just have not been able to capitalise on their qualifying pace and even with both cars in the top eight on the grid in Qatar, they failed to score a point. Alpine had a great weekend, claiming a podium and fifth place to pick up 25 points.

Too Many Unknowns

There are too many unknowns to be having many ante post bets at this point. With the track being so new it is likely that there are going to be some surprises coming up. It will be a very green track and it remains to be seen if water blasting the surface will make it fit for purpose. If not, racing on a very fast track but a very low grip surface and with no runoff areas, it could be a bit of a shambles.

This track may have a big part to play in the outcome of the championships, and not necessarily in a good way. The track lay out is very different to the Baku circuit, but it may tend towards a similarly chaotic race weekend.

Like for the Qatar race, it is best to keep our power dry until Sunday, and we did OK in that race. However, there must be a real chance that the track surface will be relatively low on grip and Bottas is usually very impressive in these situations. There is no reason why the Mercedes will be anything but competitive and Bottas can be to the fore on Saturday.

2021 Saudi Arabian GP Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to be the fastest qualifier @ 6.00 with Betfred

-JamesPunt