Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips

We had a fairly decent afternoon on Boxing Day on both sides of the Irish Sea. Jacamar got us off to a flier at Kempton at 14s. Master McShee then scored at Limerick, advised as the e/w NAP at 25s. Then came the piece de resistance in the King George with Tornado Flyer hacking up, advised ante-post at 33/1. Hopefully, we can do more damage on Monday on Welsh Grand National Day. Check out Dave Stevos Chepstow and Kempton Monday tips below.

1.05 Chepstow – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Not the most appetising of races to kick off proceedings at Chepstow on Monday. A field of 11 will go to post in this handicap chase and it is difficult to make a case for anything at a huge price. At half decent odds, perhaps Flagrant Delitiep can go well for Robert Walford and James Best. This 6yo was progressive last season. He was well beat first time up but he subsequently went 2112 and his mark rose from 110 to 133. He was well beat off that rating on his first chase start of the season, and on his seasonal bow in a Novice Hurdle, but hopefully those two runs will have put him right fitness wise.

The handicapper has dropped him back to 130, a pound lower than he was when finishing a close 2nd to Aintree My Dream at Wincanton (20f hvy). His two wins came over 21f and 20f, both on soft ground, so today’s conditions will be fine for him. Robert Walford’s horses are in decent form (3 places last 4 runners) and he has a solid record at Chepstow (6 wins, 24 top 4s from 75 runners). At odds of 16/1, Flagrant Delitiep is the each way selection.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: Fragrant Delitiep e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places)

1.20 Kempton – Wayward Lad Chase (Grade 2)

Another crap turnout for a Graded race with just four runners going to post. Edwardstone is the one to beat after his wide margin win at Sandown. He handles soft ground, he is top rated by 16lbs and barring accidents he should win. Do Your Job fell when still going well in that Sandown race and he too will enjoy the easy ground. He did have better form than the fav over timber but jumping is the name of the game in these novice chases and he blotted his copybook last time. It’ll be interesting to see whether he can trouble the jolly.

Raya Time dotted up in a handicap at Ludlow last time for Tom George. That wasn’t the best of races though and he has to improve again here. Solo has already proved to be a better chaser than hurdler but he has finished 2nd on both his starts in this discipline in handicap company. That experience should stand him in good stead and he’ll like the ground but like the other two, he needs to improve 15/20lbs to win this. Not a race that interests me in the slightest. No bet.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: No bet

1.40 Chepstow – Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

Milton Harris did us a big favour with Jacamar on Sunday and hopefully Genuflex can run big for him here. Paddy Brennan is on board the son of Holy Roman Emperor who finished a superb second to Porticello in a Listed heat at Wetherby last time out (16f gd/sft). That horse subsequently chased home the Harris trained Knight Salute at Doncaster and he re-opposes here. At Wetherby, Genuflex was held up for a late run and coming to the second last it looked like it might be a winning one.

However, he didn’t jump fluently and Porticello pulled clear, helped by a loose horse. I’m not sure if Genuflex would have beaten Porticello if he jumped the last couple better but I have no doubt that he at least would have finished a whole lot closer than the 3L he was beaten. The handicapper reckons Porticello is 19lbs superior to Genuflex but I’m not sure about that. The bookies have chalked up the Moore horse as the 4/1 fav whereas Genuflex is available at 25/1. I think that is way too big and at those odds, he is worth chancing each way.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: Genuflex e/w @ 25/1 NB (4 places)

1.55 Kempton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Just the seven runners here and even with 3 places on offer from a couple of firms, it makes no appeal as a betting heat. If I had to back one it would be Coded Message for Ben and Charlie Case. She is down to an extremely tempting mark and she likes this track. She finished 3rd in this race last season at 16/1 off 132 and she is in off 118 today. The bookies haven’t missed her though at 4/1. If she was 8s or even 7s I would be tempted but at 4s, she is too short. No bet.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: No Bet

2.10 Chepstow – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

It is so frustrating seeing all these small fields at this time of year. This is another seven runner affair and again, the oddsmakers are not taking any chances. In the hope that he improves for his seasonal return, perhaps Flashjack can run well here for Henry Daly and Tom O’Brien. This soft ground lover is in off 128 today, 6lbs lower than he was for his last win at this time of year in 2019. He had a season to forget in 2020/21, running well below par in all five starts.

However, he ran his best race for some time at this track three weeks ago and if he can build on that, he is capable of hitting the frame today. He usually hits top form in the depths of winter. His December form figures since his debut in 2015 read 131313 and with his seasonal comeback under his belt, hopefully the sequence continues on Monday. Henry Daly is in good form and with trip and ground to suit, Flashjack is the each way selection.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: Flashjack e/w @ 10/1 (3 places Coral)

2.30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2)

Another Graded race and another dire turnout. Shishkin is the favourite and he is impossible to oppose. He swept all before him last season and he finished off with successive G1 wins at Cheltenham and Aintree. Those meetings will be his ultimate aim again but this looks a more than winnable race on his return and it looks like Greanteen is his only real threat.

He comes into the race after an impressive win at Sandown where he beat Hitman by 5.5L. Two starts ago he lowered the colours of Altior at the same track and he has very little to find if the ratings are to be believed. He’ll have a fitness advantage over Shishkin but will that be enough? Neither horse makes any appeal at the prices and this is another no bet race.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: No bet

2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National (Grade 3)

Unfortunately, my ante-post selection for the Welsh National, Fortescue, wasn’t declared. Instead, I am going to take a chance on a former runner up, Ramses De Teillee. He finished 2nd behind Elegant Escape in this race in 2019 off 144. David Pipe’s dashing grey was well beat off 156 last year but he came into that on the back of a hard fought win at Cheltenham and it was his fourth run of the season overall. This year, it looks to me like he has been trained specifically for this race.

He ran a grand race on his return at Newton Abbott when 3rd behind Ballymillsy off 147 in a handicap hurdle. The son of Martaline showed the benefit of that outing with a much better effort returned to chasing at Haydock (26f gd/sft). He’ll relish the return to softer ground today and he is in off 146, 3lb lower than he was when scoring at Cheltenham in November of last year. His overall form figures at this track are 1120 and he is 6lbs better off with Elegant Escape compared to 2019. Tom Scudamore is in the plate and in first time cheekpieces, Ramses De Teillee is well capable of outrunning his odds of 20/1.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: Ramses De Teillee e/w @ 20/1 NAP (7 places)

3.10 Kempton – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Fortescue, who I fancied for Chepstow, instead turns up here. Maybe connections feel he isn’t quite experienced or old enough for a grueling race like the Welsh National yet and this won’t be as severe a test. However, this trip of 3 miles at a track like Kempton may well be plenty sharp enough for him and for that reason, I am going to look elsewhere. No doubt Fortescue will go and hack up now!

At the prices, Kempton regular Double Shuffle could sneak into the money at nice odds. His last two wins have come over this course and distance. In January 2021 he scored off a mark of 140 in a very similar race to this and he is now just 1lb higher. Prior to that victory he ran a very respectable race in this contest off 142, finishing 3rd behind Royal Pagaille. Yes, he was beat 22L but he was only 3L off 2nd and the winner was chucked in off 140 (now rated 163).

This son of Milan is an 11yo now and he comes into the race on the back of two stinking efforts. However, hopefully he just needed those runs and the return to Kempton sparks him back to life. His form figures at the track read 122527316 and at this meeting they read 1253. Soft ground is fine and at odds of 16/1, a small each way interest is advised.

Chepstow and Kempton Monday Tips: Double Shuffle e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)

Dave Stevos