Premier League Half-Term Report
Premier League Half-Term Report
Which clubs deserve a gold star for their performance in the first half of the season and which ones deserve to be sent to the headmaster’s office? It’s time for our Premier League half-term report. We’ll briefly look at each team and we’ll grade them from A+ (class swot) to F (class clown). You’ll also find an 8.00 tip for relegation. If you disagree with how we have rated your team, let us know on Twitter @TxMarkets.
Manchester City
Current Position: 1st
Pre-Season Odds/Current Odds: 1.67/1.14
Premier League Half-Term Grade: A
It has been business as usual for The Citizens. After an opening day loss to Spurs they went on an eight game unbeaten run (W6 D2). A shock 2-0 defeat at Palace gave other teams a glimmer of hope but Guardiola’s team then won their next twelve in a row. Would be an A+ only for their recent hiccup vs Southampton. Champions elect.
Liverpool
Current Position: 2nd
Pre-Season Odds/Current Odds: 6.00/8.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: B-
When they are on song, Liverpool are an irresistible force. When they aren’t at it, their defensive frailties are there for all to see. Like City, they have lost just two matches in the Premier League this season. Unlike City, they have dropped too many points from potential winning positions. Van Dijk and an ultra-high line is no longer a recipe for success and Alisson can’t keep bailing them out week after week…can he? Will likely finish as runners up.
Chelsea
Current Position: 3rd
Pre-Season Odds/Current Odds: 6.00/101.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: C-
After a storming start which saw them sit atop the Premier League table, the wheels have fallen off Chelsea’s title challenge. A win against Spurs somewhat lifted the mood before the break but prior to that, they had won just two of their previous nine and one of their last six at home. Lukaku and Pulisic have given tetchy interviews and the feel good factor that surrounded the club after the Champions League win has dissipated. Should hold on for a Top 4 finish.
Man Utd
Current Position: 4th
Pre-Season Odds/Current Odds: 9.50/501.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: E
What a disaster. Made a promising start, signed Ronaldo and the rest, as they say, is history. Hammered at home by Liverpool and away by Watford and Solskjaer sacked. Ralf Rangnick has steadied the ship and they did manage to nick a last gasp winner vs West Ham to sneak back into the top 4 before the break. The mood has lifted but with this group of prima donna players, how long will it last? Have the quality to finish 4th but it depends on whether the players apply themselves. Could easily have been given an F Grade but the fact they are in the top 4 saved them.
West Ham
Current Position: 5th
Pre-Season Top 6 Odds/Current Odds: 6.50/2.50
Premier League Half-Term Grade: B+
David Moyes has this West Ham team punching above their weight again. Only for a heartbreaking defeat at Old Trafford they would be 4th. Jarrod Bowen has been outstanding in attack and Declan Rice has matured into one of the best defensive midfielders in the Premier League. However, West Ham do not have the squad depth of some of their rivals and the fact they can’t rotate as much might cost them later in the season. Will be looking over their shoulders at Spurs and Arsenal and could struggle to maintain their charge.
Arsenal
Current Position: 6th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 2.38/1.40
Premier League Half-Term Grade: C-
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are a strange beast. Just when you think things are starting to come together, they disappoint. Went on a lovely run after losing at Man Utd and Everton, winning four in a row. Played really well in an unlucky 2-1 loss to Man City and then were piss poor when drawing 0-0 at home vs Burnley. Aubameyang is exiled and they badly need a striker. Vlahovic snubbed them but if they can get Isak that would be a big addition. Currently ahead of Spurs so that saved them from a D Grade. Work to do if they are to mount a serious top 4 challenge.
Spurs
Current Position: 7th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 2.20/1.30
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D+
Nuno Espirito Santo didn’t last too long but the decision to sack him is looking justified. Antonio Conte has done a great job with the talent he has available to him. Harry Kane, anonymous for the first few months, is starting to rediscover his scoring touch. Have only played 20 games (4 less than Chelsea) and are 11 points behind them. Need to get Son back from injury and they could do with some reinforcements coming in. If they can add some quality to the squad, they could be dark horses for the top 4.
Wolverhampton
Current Position: 8th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 17.00/6.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: B+
Bruno Lage was an unknown quantity coming into this season but he has done an outstanding job. Wolves were 6.00 to get relegated at the start of the campaign. Now, they are 6.00 to make the top 6 and 750.01 to go down. That illustrates the progress they have made. They were playing very well without getting results in the early part of the season but now, the rewards are coming. Neves and Moutinho are an excellent midfield pairing and they are solid defensively (2nd fewest goals conceded). Have only scored 19 but if they can find more goals, they can challenge for the top 6.
Brighton
Current Position: 9th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 21.00/15.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: B-
Graham Potter’s men are in the process of putting together another solid season. They continue to progress and only Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have lost less games than Brighton. The biggest issue for The Seagulls has been the fact that they have drawn so many matches (12). If they can convert some of those stalemates into wins, they should finish comfortably in the top half. Webster, Trossard and Maupay have all played well and if they can find a way to become more clinical in front of goal, they could achieve their highest Premier League finish.
Leicester City
Current Position: 10th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 2.10/14.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D-
The Foxes usually start well and then fade late. Are they going for a different approach this season? I don’t think so, it looks to me like they have simply regressed. They are very flaky at times, like when conceding two injury time goals vs Spurs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Vardy’s legs aren’t what they were and Daka isn’t up to the same level. Poor defensively too and it is hard to be too optimistic about the remainder of their season. The era of ‘The Brodge’ could be meandering to an unsatisfactory conclusion.
Aston Villa
Current Position: 11th
Pre-Season Top 6 Finish Odds/Current Odds: 8.00/21.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D+
Struggling to replace Jack Grealish. Won three of first six games, then a run of five successive defeats cost Dean Smith his job. Steven Gerrard took over and won three of his first four matches. However, they have won just two of their last six and the jury is still out on them. Signed Coutinho, who made an instant impact vs Man Utd. Whether he can maintain that form is another question. They need Watkins and Ings to start scoring more regularly if they are to force their way into the top half.
Southampton
Current Position: 12th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 5.00/26.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: C
My pre-season tips for relegation are so far proving me wrong. Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side are currently 10 points clear of the drop zone and they have lost just two of their last nine matches. They played really well in their last game before the break, drawing 1-1 with Man City. Ward Prowse continues to be a huge threat from set pieces and loan signing Broja has scored five goals. There is still room for improvement defensively (no clean sheet in 11) but overall, The Saints can be pleased with how their season has unfolded. Barring a catastrophic collapse, they should stay up comfortably.
Crystal Palace
Current Position: 13th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 3.50/26.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: C+
Palace were amongst the favourites for relegation in pre-season. Their new manager, Patrick Vieira, has completely altered their style and they have proved the doubters wrong, so far. They play a far more expansive game in comparison to the Hodgson approach and while they’ve struggled for consistency at times, that is to be expected given the huge change in how they play. Conor Gallagher has proved to be a shrewd addition and they are hoping to add Donny Van de Beek before the window closes. Currently 9 points clear of the drop zone and would be a shock if they went down now.
Brentford
Current Position: 14th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 2.50/8.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D+
Started the season with a bang, beating Arsenal in front of a passionate home crowd. Lost just one of their opening seven matches but have now lost six of their last seven and they are plummeting down the table. Ivan Toney has failed to reproduce his Championship goalscoring exploits and they are starting to concede a lot more goals. Eriksen could help them create more chances if he passes his medical but they’ll be looking nervously over their shoulders now. Thomas Frank probably would have taken this position before the season began but after the start they had, he’ll be disappointed. Could be in trouble.
Leeds
Current Position: 15th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 13.00/8.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D-
I had high hopes for Leeds and Marcelo Bielsa before the season started. They were brilliant at times last year but injuries have plagued them this time. They have a threadbare squad even when everyone is fit so when Bamford and Phillips both got hurt, it hit them extremely hard. Scoring goals has been a big problem and only two teams have conceded more. However, as they get players back they should start improving and get the results they need to stay clear of the relegation spots. The sooner Bamford returns, the better.
Everton
Current Position: 16th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 21.00/6.00
Premier League Half-Term Grade: F
What an absolute mess it is at Goodison right now. A clown show. Rafa Benitez, possibly one of the strangest appointments in history, was sacked after a dire run of results and performances. The Toffees actually started well, winning four of their first six, but since a 2-0 win vs Norwich their form nosedived. They have picked up 6 points from a possible 42, winning once in the last fourteen matches. Digne was sold just before Benitez was fired, a move that sums up Everton as a club right now. Directionless, managerless, disgruntled fans and in dire form. The emergence of Anthony Gordon is the only positive, the rest of their campaign has been an unmitigated disaster. Too good to go down? Probably, but we’ll soon find out.
Norwich
Current Position: 17th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 1.90/1.28
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D
Parted ways with Daniel Farke after a woeful start. Picked up just 2 points from their first ten games. Dean Smith, sacked at Villa, took over and Norwich picked up 5 points from their next three matches. The Canaries then lost six in a row, though to be fair that run saw them face Spurs, Man Utd, Arsenal and West Ham. Gave themselves hope of survival with successive wins before the break that took them out of the bottom three. Idah and Pukki are forming a good understanding up front and if Josh Sargent can build on the brace he netted against Watford, Norwich could go close to avoiding the drop.
Newcastle
Current Position: 18th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 4.00/2.50
Premier League Half-Term Grade: E
They may have rich new owners but it is the same old story for Newcastle. The sacking of Steve Bruce delighted the Toon Army but results haven’t exactly improved dramatically. Eddie Howe took the job in November and Newcastle have picked up 10 points from a possible 30 under him. The Magpies have signed Kieran Trippier and Chris Wood and they are in the market for more players. If they can manage to sign another decent defender, the likes of St Maximin, Wilson and Wood should be able to provide enough quality at the other end of the pitch to keep them up. Will probably survive but right now, nothing is guaranteed.
Watford
Current Position: 19th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 1.80/1.36
Premier League Half-Term Grade: F
Second from bottom, on their third manager of the season and no win since November. Claudio Ranieri got the bullet after a 3-0 defeat to Norwich and famed relegation escape artist Roy Hodgson is now tasked with keeping The Hornets up. It won’t be easy. They have won just 1 of their last 11 (W1 D1 L9) and the only bright spot has been Emmanuel Denis who has scored 8 goals. He’ll be suspended for their six pointer vs Burnley after this break though and if Watford lose that, it is going to be very hard for them to get out of trouble. The Championship likely beckons.
Burnley
Current Position: 20th
Pre-Season Relegation Odds/Current Odds: 3.5/1.57
Premier League Half-Term Grade: D-
So far, this campaign has been a nightmare for Sean Dyche and Burnley. Their season has been disrupted worse than any other club and they have only played 18 games. A return of 12 points and just one win is hardly much to shout about, but they have lost less games than any of the other teams in the bottom 7. Chris Wood moving to Newcastle was a big blow but he had only scored three this season. They’ll now be relying heavily on Max Cornet adding to the 6 he has netted in 10 appearances. Dyche will be targeting their first match back vs Watford and if The Clarets can somehow win that, it could be the springboard to get them out of trouble.
Premier League Half-Term Betting Tip
Our pre-season bets are looking worse with every passing game week. Villa look more likely to finish in the bottom 6, Chelsea’s title challenge virtually ended last month and Hasenhuttl and Southampton are sitting safely in mid-table. Things can only get better and I think that the 8.00 on offer about Brentford to get relegated is worth taking.
Their early season form is a distant memory and losing is a habit that can be hard to shake. They have started shipping lots of goals and at the other end, Toney and Mbuemo haven’t been the threat that they were in the first couple of months. Thomas Frank has been getting more and more agitated in his post-match interviews and he even got himself sent off after their home defeat to Wolves.
Is Eriksen The Answer?
They are in for Christian Eriksen but he hasn’t played football for a long time. While he is undoubtedly a class player, I’m not sure he’s what you want for a relegation dogfight. They have played 23 matches, three more than Everton (19 points), two more than Newcastle (15 points) and five more than Burnley (12 points). Brentford have 23 points and while it is undoubtedly better to have the points in the bag at this stage, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Everton or Newcastle could string a couple of wins together and drag The Bees into the mire.
Two of their first three matches after the break are vs Man City and Arsenal. If they lose those games, they’ll be under huge pressure heading into a run of fixtures against Newcastle (h), Norwich (a) and Burnley (h). Howe, Smith and Dyche will have those dates marked in their calendar and that spell could be what defines Brentford’s season. They have picked up just 11 points from their last 16 matches and if that shocking form continues, they’ll be in huge bother. Back Brentford to get relegated at odds of 8.00.
