2022 Italian GP Qualifying Update and Tips

Our F1 analyst James Punt’s pre-race preview is available to read here. Now, it is time for his 2022 Italian GP Qualifying Update. Check it out below.

2022 Italian GP Qualifying Preview

Qualifying at Monza can be a bit silly. Getting a good slip stream can knock a chunk of time off your lap. The new ground effect cars means that time gained is likely to be less pronounced than before but expect a lot of bunching as drivers try and get in behind a car in front.

The session may also be influenced by so many drivers taking grid penalties tomorrow. There are not many drivers not taking some kind of penalty, but for those that will have a ‘back of the grid’ penalty, it is hardly worth their while doing much more than Q1.

This is a track where the lap is flat out for 80% of it. That puts strain on the power units and the likes of Hamilton and Tsunoda might as well do as few laps as possible and save on power unit mileage.

Leclerc For Pole?

Working out the grid for tomorrow’s race will not be the work of a moment but it now looks almost certain that Charles Leclerc will start from pole position. Verstappen is likely to be the fastest qualifier, but he will take a 5 place drop. He will take a full part in qualifying to maximise his grid position. If he starts 6th, he’ll probably still win the race given what he has done from further back in the last two races.

The Ferraris were fastest yesterday but as usual Red Bull changed things overnight and came out and Verstappen showed the rest a clean pair of heels, 0.347 faster than next best Leclerc. Perez and Sainz were both detached from the front two, but very close to each other. That was the same for Alonso and Norris in 5th and 6th and one of them should be starting on the front row.

Disappointing Mercedes

Despite the warm conditions, the Mercedes are lacking in pace with Russell only 7th fastest and Hamilton 10th. It looks like being a hard weekend for Hamilton, but after all the penalties, Russell is in the hunt for another podium, and giving what has happened here for the last three years, a win is not out of the question.

Verstappen is the 1.33 favourite to be the fastest qualifier. A short price but it is highly likely that he will be. It’s not really a tipping price, however.

Best of the rest in qualifying is likely between Alonso and Norris. It is a bit of a surprise to see the McLaren so fast here. It has been a draggy car and straights are not its friend, but they have found a good set up. Alonso was 0.01 faster than Norris in FP3 and while I suspect he will come out on top, that is a bit of a coin toss.

Honda Cars Have Speed

The Honda powered cars are the fastest in terms of top speed which should be an advantage tomorrow, but Mercedes was slowest, Aston Martin not much better and McLaren only sixth.

It is hard to find anything of interest for today’s session. How drivers will approach things given their grid penalties and wanting to save the engines mileage makes things much more confusing than usual.

There is one match bet which is tempting. Ocon has out qualified Alonso in four of the last five qualifying sessions and he is almost always underrated. He is 2.90 to do it again. He was slower in FP3 by 0.2, which is not a vast difference, but he is getting a 5 place penalty tomorrow. That suggests that he should try and get as high a position as possible, but maybe the team are looking at Alonso for a front row start. They might just use Ocon to give Alonso a tow in Q3 as a result.

Slow Stroll

Stroll has been getting the better of Vettel in qualifying recently but he was very slow, they both were, but Stroll was nearly 0.6 slower today and plumb last.

Verstappen is very likely to get pole and by a fair margin judging by today’s pace. He only gets a 5 place penalty so he will go for it to minimise the damage done. He was 0ver 0.3 seconds faster in FP3 and hopefully when everyone turns their power units up for qualifying, that sort of gap remains, or gets bigger.

2022 Italian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point qualifying winning margin to be over 0.25 seconds @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

JamesPunt