2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter – DS
2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter
It’s stats time of the year again. Four weeks to go until the fun and games begin at Prestbury Park and Dave Stevos is back to try and find some Festival winners by using some key statistics. This year the four races we’ll be covering are the Ryanair, Stayers’ Hurdle and Champion Chase but first up, we’ll have a go at the big one. Check out our 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter preview below.
Age
The first statistic we will use to narrow the 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup field is age. No horse older than 9yo has managed to win Friday’s feature race since Cool Dawn all the way back in 1998. In the last twenty five years all Gold Cup winners have been aged between 6yo and 9yo.
Long Run was the only 6yo winner in that period so for the purposes of this piece, we’ll focus on horses aged between 7yo and 9yo. This enables us to discount five of the remaining sixteen contenders. The highest profile casualties are the enigmatic Shishkin at 9/1 (10yo) and the Grand National hero Corach Rambler (10yo) at 20/1. The other 10yos who are cut at this stage are Monkfish, Jungle Boogie and last year’s third Conflated.
Cut: Shishkin 9/1; Corach Rambler 20/1; Monkfish 33/1; Jungle Boogie 66/1; Conflated 66/1.
Winning Form
Another important stat in recent years has been winning form. Since Imperial Commander’s triumph in 2010, twelve of the thirteen subsequent winners had managed to win at least one race during the season before landing the Gold Cup.
This statistic will cause quite a few of the eleven remaining contenders to fall by the wayside. Last year’s fifth Protektorat is 0/4 this season so we wave goodbye to him. Bravemansgame has gone 222 in three runs this season but the lack of a 1 in his form figures means he also falls at this fence.
50/1 shots The Real Whacker and Ahoy Senor have also failed to get their heads in front this season. That’s four more horses the stats have ruled out, seven remain in the running…for now.
Cut: Protektorat 80/1; Bravemansgame 25/1; Ahoy Senor 50/1; The Real Whacker 50/1.
Course Form
The final statistic we’ll use to try and narrow the field is course form. The famous Cheltenham hill has found out many a horse over the years so it is a big plus if a horse has already proved they can handle the stamina sapping finish. So, we are going to rule out horses that have failed to place or win at the track.
That is bad news for Hewick who fell on his sole try over this C&D in last year’s race. It also means that our selection for our ante-post e/w Lucky 15, Gentlemansgame, won’t make the final cut. That leaves us with five final contenders, we’ll try and sort them out next.
Cut: Hewick 16/1; Gentlemansgame 16/1.
2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter: The Final Five
And then there were five. The longest priced horse that has made it to this stage is the ultra-progressive Welsh National winner Nassalam. There’s no doubting his stamina but while he has placed once here in a handicap, his other three course efforts were underwhelming, including in last year’s Ultima. Bottomless ground might bring him into the reckoning but otherwise, Gary Moore’s charge may be slightly out of his depth in this company.
Gerri Colombe is a nice horse but the form of his second here last year behind The Real Whacker doesn’t look as strong as it once did. He has 23L to find with Galopin Des Champs on their meeting at Leopardstown over the Festive Period and while he should be staying on in the closing stages, a place is probably the best he can hope for.
Presseing Claims?
I’m a big fan of L’Homme Presse. He is a serious operator on his day and it was great to see him return from a long absence with a win at Lingfield last month. He beat a race fit Protektorat by 2.25L but he was getting 4lbs from his rival.
When you consider that Protektorat was 15L behind Galopin Des Champs off level weights in this race last year, he is going to have to improve a huge amount to beat the Mullins horse.
That is not impossible but to be honest, it is hard to get away from Galopin Des Champs. He has looked better than ever on his last two runs and he put Fastorslow firmly in his place at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Excuses
He had excuses on the two occasions the Brassil horse beat him (end of long season/trip) and he produced a spectacular performance to win here last year. Can anything stop him from making it two in a row? Probably not.
If it came up heavy, Nassalam would be tempting from an e/w perspective. However, there’s no point in backing him until closer to the event when we’ll have some idea of the likely weather conditions.
L’Homme Presse is probably the most overpriced horse that remains at 10/1. I’m not sure he should be bigger than Gerri Colombe, who is 9s. If you are considering having an e/w bet, L’Homme Presse at 10s is acceptable but there is a chance he might be bigger on the day, depending on his Ascot run this weekend. He could have his work cut out to beat Galopin Des Champs though, he looks a very worthy favourite.
