2024 Premier League Night 5 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 5 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 5 preview.
Frustrating
It was typically frustrating PL night last week. Peter Wright missing a double 16 was the difference between a winning night and a losing night. It leaves our PL seasonal tally at -1.94. Engaging Incy Wincy Spider mode.
Tonight, Exeter is the venue. A glorified mega shed compared to some venues, but it is handy for Butlins, Minehead and the UK Open which starts tomorrow (preview here).
Luke Humphries vs. Michael van Gerwen
MVG has won the last three PL nights in a row and has already got the table by the throat. He is eight points clear of Michael Smith and Luke Littler. Luke Humphries is in fifth place on just five points.
Humphries is playing very well, averaging 100.8 in 2024. He has hit six ton plus averages in his last ten matches (including the last four in a row), but he has lost six of his last ten matches.
MVG is ‘only’ averaging 97.7 in 2014 but his win rate is 81% and while he is not quite at his best, he is confident and that counts for a lot. This is ‘his’ tournament and he likes nothing better than beating the best week in and week out.
MVG Dominant
Their H2H record is 13-5 to MVG and he won their first PL meeting of the season 6-5 two weeks ago in the final of Night 3. Mighty Mike has won six of their last seven and he starts this match as the 1.79 favourite, Humphries the 2.10 outsider.
They have only played seven best of eleven leg matches and two have required more than nine legs. Their last one required a deciding leg and I would expect that to be the case tonight.
2024 Premier League Night 5 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair
2024 Premier League Night 5 Tip: 0.5 point MVG to win 6-5 @ 7.00 with Unibet, Betfair
Nathan Aspinall vs. Peter Wright
A real bottom of the table, four pointer. Peter Wright spurned his big chance to both beat Luke Littler and get his first points on the board last week. A double 16 to win, he missed, Luke hit, game over.
Wright is still doing what he does best, talking a good game. He is ‘only’ 15 points off the top spot. That only takes three nightly wins, so he is still in it.
Mathematically that isn’t true, as other players would still be picking up points even without winning the night, and he realistically needs four or five nightly wins to be mixing it at the top. The fact is that he is well adrift already and another poor Premier League campaign is in progress.
There are signs that his form is on the up, but he is very win rusty and that may be the reason he missed the big dart last week. He has won seven of his last ten matches, hit a couple of ton plus averages, and had just the one sub 90.
Aspinall Off The Mark
Aspinall finally broke his duck last week, narrowly beating Smith and Cross, before losing 4-6 to MVG in the final. He could easily have lost to Smith as he only averaged 87.55 in a 6-5 win, but making the final means he got three points.
The Asp also hit eleven 180s and a 170 checkout, so he will be feeling much happier. However, he has only won five of his last ten matches and he isn’t playing as well as Wright has in the last couple of weeks.
Closely Matched Averages
In terms of 2024 averages, there is very little between the two. Aspinall is bang on 93, Wright 92.61. Aspinall has seen half of his last ten matches averaging less than 92.50 and his best was a 100.29 against MVG in last week’s final.
It is far too soon to say that Aspinall has turned a corner in his poor start to 2024, but I would say that Wright has. To me, Wright is just about playing the better darts right now.
These two only met twice in last year’s PL, with Aspinall winning 6-3, and Wright 6-5. Overall, Aspinall is 10-6 against Snakebite and 2-1 in 2013.
Aspinall is the 1.73 favourite and Wright 2.25. The value looks to lie with Wright, but can he be trusted to get it over the line? I’m not so sure, but another nervy, close match would be no surprise.
2024 Premier League Night 5 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair
Gerwyn Price vs. Rob Cross
Two players who continue to struggle for consistency. Price has won six of his last ten and keeps on throwing in a trashy match now and then, while Cross has lost six of his last ten.
Both players are averaging just over 97 in 2024, but Cross is showing signs that the frustration of playing well and not winning is taking a toll on his scoring. It is still ok, but six of his last ten have seen sub 95s and he is losing too many close matches. Nine of his last ten have been over 9.5 legs. He has lost three 4-6 and three 5-6.
They met in Night 1 and Price won that 6-2. Overall their H2H record is 12-7 to Price and he has won six of their last seven matches.
Price is the 1.67 favourite, Cross 2.20. Given their recent H2H record, Price looks backable at the odds.
2024 Premier League Night 5 Tip: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win @ 1.67 generally available
Luke Littler vs. Michael Smith
Tied on seven points in the table. Smith won their first PL encounter 6-5 on Night 1 in Cardiff. He had to overcome a lot of whistling from the crowd that night, but he got it done in the deciding leg, despite Littler averaging 105.
Smith went on to win the night and he was a semi-finalist in Night 2, but he has lost in the opening round for the last two weeks. Smith is only averaging 93.5 in 2024, with a win rate of 55%, but he has played better than that in the PL, so far.
Bully Boy has lost five of his last ten matches and had just one 95+ average. Luke Littler has won six of his last ten and while he has put in a few sub-par performances, his level of play is still very strong.
Not Firing
Smith has not been firing on all cylinders for the last couple of weeks and he looks vulnerable if Littler turns up with another high average. He has had a much quieter week this week.
There have been no Players Championships or Euro Tour qualifiers for him to play Monday to Wednesday, as has been the case for the last two weeks.
Littler is the 1.54 favourite, with Smith 2.88. I’ll take Littler giving up a -1.5 leg handicap.
