2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 10, 2024

2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter

It is now time for our final instalment of stats based previews for the Cheltenham Festival. Dave Stevos has already covered the Champion Chase, Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase. Check out our 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter preview below.

Age

Apart from Sire Du Berlais last year who scored as an 11yo, this has tended to be a young (ish) horse’s race. Going back as far as 1990, the vast majority of winners have been aged between 6yo and 8yo. Big Buck’s and Solwhit both scored as 9yos in 2012/13, Inglis Drever managed it in 2008 but the last 9yo to win before those three was Galmoy back in 1988.

This statistic means we have to rule out some old favourites, including last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (12yo). The 2019 winner Paisley Park is also 12yo, as is Champ. Dashel Drasher ran a blinder to finish second last year but he’s now an 11yo so the stats say he can’t win.

Others that fall by the wayside here are the 10yos Monkfish, Janidil & Beacon Edge. It’s also bad news for our ante-post bet Home By The Lee who is a 9yo, as are Sir Gerhard, Noble Yeats, Proschema and Flooring Porter.

Cut: Sire Du Berlais (20/1); Paisley Park (16/1); Champ (33/1); Dashel Drasher (33/1); Monkfish (14/1); Janidil (66/1); Beacon Edge (66/1); Asterion Forlonge (50/1); Sir Gerhard (10/1); Proschema (100/1); Noble Yeats (9/1); Home By The Lee (16/1); Flooring Porter (12/1).

2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter: The Final Four

Amazingly, only four of the remaining runners fit into the correct age profile. Unsurprisingly, two of those are at the top of the market. The 7yo Teahupoo is the 2/1 favourite and he is on a retrieval mission after finishing a close second last year (demoted to third). A bit of soft ground won’t bother him and he holds obvious claims for Gordon Elliott.

Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo is rated 5lbs inferior to Teahupoo. The bookies make him the second favourite at 5/1 and he had a short head to spare over the evergreen Paisley Park last time. He’d prefer better ground than his main market rival and if it comes up good to soft, he could put it right up to him.

Outsiders

Irish Point also made it to this stage but he has been rerouted to the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. That leaves us with two outsiders. De Capo Glory is a 66/1 poke and he is by a top staying sire in Fame And Glory. He’s never raced beyond 21f but he shaped like this trip might suit when keeping on well in a Navan G2 last month (21f hvy). However, he’s also in the Coral Cup and I suspect that is where he might run off a mark of 146.

We backed Buddy One at big odds in the Martin Pipe last year and he landed the e/w money. It was a cracking run by a relatively inexperienced horse and he showed that wasn’t a fluke by landing a decent 24f handicap here on soft off 147 back in November.

Two Shockers

Since then he has run two stinkers in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse and when pulled up at Leopardstown. However, he scoped badly after that last run and he is a much better horse than he showed in that contest. Paul Gilligan’s charge has now run crackers on both previous visits to Cheltenham and if you are looking for a lively outsider that might run into a place, he fits the bill.

However, the two most likely winners according to the stats are Crambo and Teahupoo. If I were having a bet on either of them, I’d be waiting until the day of the race to see how the ground is. On good ground I’d back Crambo but on soft or worse, Teahupoo would get the verdict. As the ground is currently soft on the old course, Gordon Elliott’s charge gets the nod.

2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS