2026 Monaco GP Raceday Preview

Check out James Punt’s 2026 Monaco GP Raceday preview below. We were out of luck in qualifying, fingers crossed for better today.

2026 Monaco GP Raceday

This last session is something of a recovery mission as everything has gone wrong so far. Our ante post bets on a Leclerc win are effectively over after he couldn’t qualify in the top three, nobody has won here from outside the top 3 on the grid since 1996 (Olivier Panis from 14th, in a wet race where only six cars finished).

Lando Norris to finish on the podium is nothing but a pipe dream as he starts in 8th place, his worst qualifying performance of the season. Pierre Gasly manged to be best of the rest, qualifying in 9th place, but he now needs everything to fall his way if he is to make the top 6.

Qualifying saw what looked like a good value e/w bet on Russell go down the tubes, much like his F1 career. We have done well by backing Sainz in recent races, but he lost out on winning his group bet by 0.025 seconds yesterday.

The top three on the grid, from where the winner always comes from, is Antonelli from Verstappen, from Hamilton. So, what can we expect?

Optimists

The optimists are saying that the Ferraris can make up places off the start line, which is a bit too optimistic in my book. Yes, the Mercedes and Red Bulls have been amongst the slowest off the line in 2026, and Ferrari the fastest, but the run into the first corner here is very short and more to the point, the track is very narrow. There isn’t really enough room for two cars to go side by side. If the car in front wants to block the road, he can do so just by plonking his car in the middle of the track.

I have just watched the F2 race, usually a source of some excitement, even around Monaco, but it was dull, very, very dull. Places were made up by strategy/pitstops, or via retirements. There might have been one overtake. The pole sitter retired and the race was won from the driver who started 2nd, followed by the driver 3rd on grid. Kush Maini finished the race in 4th after starting from 9th on the grid, so places can be made up, but rarely at the front.

Anti-Climactic

The Monaco GP is invariably an anticlimax after the thrills of qualifying and today’s race is likely to follow the usual script.

There is potential for something to happen at the first corner, there always is, but if the drivers decide that discretion is the better part of valour, as they usually do, then they will back out of a high risk move and accept their fate. There is always the chance of a strategic overtake around a yellow flag or a good pitstop strategy, or just good old-fashioned luck.

Antonelli has started on pole in three races so far and converted all into a race win. There is nowhere easier to win from pole than in Monaco, but that is not to say that the pole sitter always wins. Since 2003, the year when the pit complex was changed, of the twenty-two races, sixteen have been won from pole. Of the six races that were won from off pole position, five pulled it off by using the ‘overcut’.

The driver/s following the leader generally hang on for as long as possible in the race. If they have a faster car, they can make up ground after the leader has pitted and hope to come out ahead when they have to make their stop. It also means they have a better chance to capitalise on any safety car deployments.

Long Runs

Of course, the team strategists are all aware of this fact, so expect the leading cars to run, and run, and run, before having to stop if they don’t get a safety car window. Strategists thinking the same way tend to cancel each other out. It is hard to come up with a new play book which bamboozles the opposition around here. Track position is king, try to keep it is the golden rule.

I remember one year, Daniel Riccardo winning here despite an engine problem that had him running with a 25% power loss. David Coulthard won here one year despite a gearbox issue that was slowing him up. Montoya was up his chuff, lap after lap, but Coulthard still took the win.

As a rough guide, the last 30 races here have a pole win rate of 53%, from 2nd place 30%, 3rd place 13% and others 3%.

The odds for the top three today? Antonelli 1.62 (62%), Verstappen 3.80 (36%) and Hamilton 9.00 (12.5%). No value there then. Only Hamilton’s best odds are close to the ‘true’ odds. Antonelli is the most likely to win, but his true odds are more like 1.90.

Outsider Hopes?

Is there any chance of somebody ‘doing a Panis’ and winning from outside the top three? Very probably not, but anybody with odds over 30.00 qualify as value bets but are strictly for the ultra-optimists (nutters).

There needs to be a reason why it might happen. It was raining in 1996 and the chances of rain today are 0%. I will leave the winner market alone, but if you fancy the driver starting in 14th place to win again, you can get 3001.00 about Colapinto.

We have already wasted a point on Norris to finish on the podium and two on Leclerc to win the race. We also have Gasly for a top 6 finish. He starts 9th, the best outside of the ‘big 4’. He is now a 9.00 shot (and we got 7.00 ante post). The Gasman has done his best, but we probably need a couple of the top drivers to have problems, but it is still just about a live chance.

Side Markets

The only markets of interest today are the side markets, and I have to say it is very hard to find any value bets today.

We need to look at drivers who have a good track record around this track, and in a reliable car.

Carlos Sainz stands out in the midfield. He has a 100% point scoring record here from his ten previous starts. He has done it with no less than five different teams. The only negative here is that he had always started 11th or better, and today, he starts 12th. Sainz is the only driver to have made up at least one place in every race of 2026, helped by starting so far down the grid of course.

Sainz is a best priced 2.25 to finish in the points today, but is there another way to back him at more tempting odds? He is 13.00 to win Ladbrokes Group 2. The problem there is that he is grouped with the three cars ahead of him on the grid, Albon, Lawson and Gasly. That is a bit of a stretch.

Sainz is 2.90 to win Unibet’s Group 3 where he is grouped with Albon, who starts one place ahead, Hulkenberg in 13th and Colapinto in 14th. The Audi was faster in practice, so that is still a tricky group and quite tight odds.

Tempter

The only Sainz bet I can find that is tempting, isn’t really a bet on him, but both Williams. Both to finish in the points can be backed at 6.00 with one firm, one that doesn’t really take bets, however.

Both Williams finished in the points here last year, 9th and 10th, both making up one place in the race. That wouldn’t be enough this year, but they have had a double points finish in 2026, in Miami, and their car is getting more competitive.

Even though it is effectively a double bet, I’ll take it at the odds. (The next best odds available are 4.10 with Livescorebet)

2026 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 1 point both Williams to finish in the points @ 6.00 with BET365

I am afraid that is that. It is hard argue with any great logic that any given driver will be able to make up ground in the race. Some will, but because overtaking is so difficult here, it is hard to argue why. Logic says, back the driver who starts in front when it comes to groups and matches, but those markets are priced accordingly.

Hopefully it will be a race in which something happens, something to make it watchable, but after initial promise that this year could be different, if the top three or four cars all clear the first corner in order, that is likely to be that.

Back for the Spanish GP next weekend.

-JamesPunt