2026 Monaco GP Qualifying Preview

Check out James Punt’s 2026 Monaco GP qualifying preview below. His outright betting preview can be viewed here.

2026 Monaco GP Qualifying

All the free practice sessions are over and we have a reasonably clear pecking order, but a different one from Friday.

FP1 and FP2 had Ferrari on top in both sessions, one for each driver. The teams then went away and changed their setups based on the data gathered.

The big gainers overnight were Mercedes. From being 0.4 seconds off Ferrari, which is a lot around a short lap, Antonelli ended up 0.327s ahead of Leclerc. Ferrari were faster, everyone was, but in relative terms, Mercedes found their sweet spot. Russell was only 4th quickest, as he was in FP2, and +0.763s behind Antonelli.

The rest are going to have to find a LOT of time if they are to get a sniff of the historically crucial front three places on the grid.

Leclerc Unravelling

I thought that Leclerc was going to have a reasonably easy job to get pole, but he was unravelling in FP3. The final runs were very messy as a late red flag meant that the cars just had enough time for a couple of laps and it was very hard to find some space, get the tyres into the right window and so on.

Leclerc has had problems with his brakes all weekend but he was OK until that final run, when suddenly the brakes were ‘horrendous’.  They were cold and that is why they were horrendous, but he was panicking and that was down to Antonelli crashing the party. Did Leclerc see the Mercedes time and realise that he can’t match that? I think so.

Antonelli has scored three GP poles from the first five in 2026, and has never been off the front row. Russell has the other two GP poles, and two second places. He was a long way off in FP3, but you have to take into account the traffic affecting the drivers’ qualifying simulations. Russell clearly now has the car to compete for pole, but the momentum is with Antonelli.

Luck Required

Luck plays a big part in qualifying here, especially in Q1, with 22 cars trying to keep out of each other’s way on a short, tight circuit. Driver’s laps can be compromised by getting blocked on a flying lap, and your bets can get screwed over as well, but F1 qualifying at Monaco is one of the highlights of the season.

The market still has Charles Leclerc as the favourite for pole position at 2.50. Antonelli is 2.75, Hamilton 5.25 and Russell 10.00. I have to make Antonelli favourite on the evidence of FP3.

There was nothing lucky about his lap, and it didn’t look like the Ferrari’s had too much to complain about. The red flag did ruin a lot of drivers flying laps, but Antonelli had just set the fastest lap of the weekend. It didn’t look like anyone was going to getting close.

Russell isn’t out of it either. He did have traffic problems and there is more to come from him. He has only missed out on the front row once in 2026 and we can back him at 10.00 with e/w terms of 1/5 the odds 1-3. That strikes me as a decent e/w punt.

2026 Monaco GP qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 10.00 with BET365, Boylesports, Betvictor

Elsewhere, the breakthrough team in Monaco this year are Audi. I didn’t think they would go well here with their big, slow to spin up turbo not being ideal for this track. However, both cars have been top 10 in every session, so there is no denying that they are the midfield team who have hit the sweet spot.

Hulkenberg was drifting back towards his beloved 11th place in FP3 but he ended up 10th, with Bortoleto 7th. Sadly, it is hard to see any value in backing the Audis. Bortoleto is just 1.40 to reach Q3 and both to make Q3 just 1.90. Given Hulkenberg’s predilection for qualifying 11th, I’ll skip on that. Bortoleto is 2.05 to beat Bearman, Hulkenberg and Gasly in a group bet, but that is a bit skinny as well.

Group Bet

One group bet I do like is for Carlos Sainz to win Unibet’s Group 3. He is in with Ocon, Albon and Colapinto. Ocon is the 2.30 favourite, Sainz 3.45, Albon 3.50 and Colapinto 7.00.

Ocon was the quickest of that bunch in FP3, with Sainz just 0.058 behind. Sainz has only missed making Q3 here once, last year’s 11th place. Ocon has four Q3s here and was 8th for Haas last year, but his average qualifying position in 2026 is 13.80.

Sainz is a lot worse with 15.25, but the Williams is improving. Sainz has been 12th in all three sessions, faster than Ocon in two of them. He has outqualified the Haas driver in the last two GPs. Albon has struggled this weekend and seems to be getting slower with each session. Colapinto hasn’t been better than 15th.  Sainz is the value bet for me.

2026 Monaco GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win Group 3 @ 3.50 with Unibet

-JamesPunt