2026 Hungarian GP Raceday Preview

James Punt landed one nice winner in qualifying but Lewis Hamilton missed out on pole by a whisker. Check out his 2026 Hungarian GP Raceday preview below.

2026 Hungarian GP Raceday

It never rains, but it pours. Our pick for pole, Lewis Hamilton gets pipped by 0.012 seconds and then he gets a 3-place grid penalty for the race, and of course he is our pick to win the race.

This narrow sinuous track doesn’t offer up many overtaking opportunities, so losing track position in the stewards’ room is extra painful. Had he started from second, Hamilton was right in the mix. The driver starting in second place has won two of the last three races here and three of the last ten.

The pole sitter has not won here since 2020 and has only won three of the last twelve. Hard to overtake, but the pole sitter has been particularly unsuccessful. There have been winners from second, third, fourth, eighth and tenth places in the last twelve races at the Hungaroring. Strange things happen here.

Norris has finished 2/2/1 here for the last three years. Leclerc who now starts from second place has never finished on the podium in Hungary. Piastri starts third and he won in 2024 and was runner up last year.

Lucky Norris

Norris was a bit lucky to be able to execute his last flying lap despite two yellow flag incidents which cleared, like the Red Sea for Moses, allowing Norris to be the only driver to improve his time on the final run.

This is the first race of 2026 which doesn’t have a Mercedes on pole position. Antonelli was only fourth quickest, but he too was given a 3-place penalty for not slowing under yellow flags when Verstappen spun out on the final corner. It worked out well for Verstappen, who was only sixth quickest in qualifying, but now starts from fourth.

McLaren have brought a reasonably big upgrade this weekend and Norris has been on the pace from FP2 onwards. Piastri now starts third but he has never been better than 5th in any timed session.

Picture Clouded

The lack of much long running in Friday’s practice has clouded the picture somewhat. Antonelli was quick on a fairly long run on softs, Verstappen was good on the mediums, but Ferrari didn’t set any representative times. Leclerc was slower than Antonelli on the softs, Norris was a little slower than Verstappen on the mediums and Piastri was quite a bit slower than Norris on the same tyre.

Norris just about deserves his pole, but he needed some good fortune. Leclerc is in what looks to be the quickest car but starts on the dusty side of the track. That may blunt his starting pace, but he remains a big threat to Norris.

Piastri was the big winner from the penalty awards. Never better than fifth but starts third. That flatters him and he hasn’t been on the podium since Miami at the start of May. He only got the full upgrade in FP3 and he sat out FP1, so there are reasons for him being off the pace. Getting blocked in his final run in Q3 didn’t help either.

Moaning Max

Verstappen has done nothing but moan about his car all weekend and he was the other big winner from the penalties awarded to Hamilton and Antonelli. The Red Bulls’ race pace hasn’t been great for much of the season and Verstappen was suffering from rear tyre degradation in qualifying. Hadjar said much the same about his car. Undriveable said both drivers.

The two Mercedes look out of place in 6th and seventh. Russell has not been any better than 5th in the practice sessions and his pace has just vanished. The same deployment problem? In the end he stopped on track. His power unit had split, causing a water leak and he had to stop. More unreliability to go with a lack of pace.

Russell gets a new power unit for the race, but without a penalty as it is within his four unit allowance. Antonelli missed FP1 and has been playing catch up ever since. He believes Mercedes have been out developed by Ferrari and McLaren and they are just not quick enough, penalty or not. Their race pace did look good, but they are both quite far back and with unreliability now a huge problem for the team, just getting both cars home would be a result.

Best Of The Rest

The rest of the field are detached from the Big Four. Best of the rest so far is a toss up between the Racing Bulls and Audi. Hulkenberg just made it into Q3 and starts 10th, one place behind Lindblad in the racing Bull.

Bortoleto will be disappointed to end up 14th. He got caught out by a yellow flag in Q2 and didn’t do a great lap on his last attempt. He has the potential to move up the order but is stuck behind the two Alpines in 12th and 13th. The French team has slipped down the pecking order thanks to being out developed. Audi will be desperate to get some points and overtake Williams for 8th place in the Constructors’ title race. Big bucks are at stake.

The B spec Aston Marting allowed Alonso to reach Q2 for the first time this season, but starting 16th is not the great step forward that we were promised.

Race Winner

In theory, the pole sitter should hold the best cards on this track. The side of the track that the odd numbered cars start on the grid has more grip than the inside of the track. Watching the F2 race, the cars starting 2nd and 4th both dropped places off the line. The Ferrari is quick at the start, but Leclerc will be hampered by the dirty track. At least Hamilton now gets to start on the grippy side and I fancy he can jump Verstappen into the first corner.

Overtaking is largely confined to the end of the long starting straight so Norris shouldn’t have much defending to do, especially if he can get a gap of over a second. However, history shows that pole position divers have been cursed in Hungary in recent years.

Norris is the 2.75 favourite, Leclerc 3.50, Hamilton 5.50, Antonelli 8.50 (all win only), Piastri 17.00, Verstappen 34.00 and Russell 67.00!

Norris Too Short

We are on Hamilton already at 4.80 e/w the top three. So, we may get something back. Norris’ odds are a bit cramped for me given the pole sitter’s record. Leclerc makes some appeal at 3.50, but this has not been a good track for him and he starts on the wrong side of the track. Piastri has been slower than Norris in the same car, but he starts on the right side of the track and he has gone well here.

Despite starting on the wrong side, Leclerc makes some appeal. The Ferrari has looked like the best car and the driver starting second has won two of the last three races here. He was struggling in turn one all weekend and he doesn’t really like the track, which may explain his poor record here. I was going to back him at 3.50, but that track record bothers me.

Podium Hopes

The podium market has one interesting contender. Piastri is having a poor season, but he has had a couple of podiums, one coming when McLaren got their first big upgrade in Miami. That is a strong McLaren track, as is the Hungaroring, and they have a big upgrade this weekend.

Piastri had to sit out FP1 which put him on the back foot. He then had to get used to the new upgrade package in FP3. He got a two-place boost thanks to others penalties and starts third. He will be racing the two Ferraris for the podium places and that is the tough bit, but that is reflected in his odds.

2026 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to finish on the podium @ 3.75 with Betfair, Skybet

The top 6 market has Hadjar at 3.00. He is on a run of six consecutive top six finishes. Three of those came when he started outside the top 6, including from 8th in Austria, and 10th in Belgium. Of course, overtaking is much easier on those two tracks. I will give him a miss on the grounds that the car looks to be hard to drive this weekend.

Points Betting

Hulkenberg is looking to break his duck with a top ten finish today. His record here is not good, scoring just one tenth place back in 2016. He isn’t a driver blessed with good luck and odds of 1.67 are short enough.

Bortoleto has finished 8th in the last two races and was 6th on debut last year. He is out of position thanks to a poor qualifying session, but can he make up four places to score more points? He would likely need some attrition and there hasn’t been much of that here in recent years. There have only been four cars not classified in the last four years.

However, in this first year of new regulations, the attrition rates have been high. There have been 3.8 not classifieds on average in 2026, and always at least two. Much of the attrition has been from the back markers, but Mercedes have opened up chances at the front thanks to their woes.

Niko Hulkenberg has also three DNFs on his 2026 CV. Bortoleto has made the chequered flag in nine of the ten races so far, with just a DNS in China. At odds of 4.00 and in a car with top 10 pace, he is worth taking a chance on.

2026 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to finish in the points @ 4.00 with Bresbet, Betfred

Match Betting

There isn’t many of interest. I was looking for a way to oppose Verstappen as he is so unhappy with how his car is handling. A few firms have Verstappen vs. Russell, with Russell the outsider. He starts two places behind Verstappen but was just one place behind on the road in qualifying.

His Mercedes has a new power unit but reliability is still a concern when it comes to backing either of their cars. Russell also hinted that their cars’ set up was better for one lap pace than race pace. That said, the Red Bull looks a real handful. Both drivers had spins in qualifying, it is handling like a pig and has high tyre degradation. Verstappen is furious.

2026 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to beat Max Verstappen @ 1.95 with Livescorebet, Fitzdares

The final bet is for Lawson to be ‘best of the rest’. He starts behind teammate Lindblad and Hulkenberg, but Hulkenberg is on the dirty side of the track. Lawson starts directly behind Lawson on the track and he is 7-3 vs. Lindblad.

Lawson has missed out on Q3 just four times in 2026 and on three of those occasions he has recovered to finish in the top nine. It is worth rolling dice on Lawson who was 8th on his debut here last year.

2026 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to be Best of the Rest @ 3.75 with Livescorebet

That is it for a few weeks. F1 returns in four weeks’ time with the Dutch GP.

-JamesPunt