2026 Italian GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his ante-post preview, see that here. Check out his 2026 Italian GP qualifying preview and tips below.

2026 Italian GP Qualifying

Having already tipped up George Russell for pole position, that part of the job has been covered. Russell has been fastest in FP2 and FP3 and goes into the qualifying session as the 1.83 favourite.

It isn’t done and dusted as getting the tow right is very important. The Mercedes is the fastest car by around 0.2s, but if they don’t execute it right, and say Ferrari do, Russell could find pole slipping through his fingers.

My fingers will be crossed and the reality is that Ferrari are more likely to cock things up than Mercedes.

Ferrari Second Best

Ferrari have the second-best car and Hamilton was second fastest. Leclerc ended up down in 6th, but the team put him out in the wrong place for his final run. His engineer fessed up to that one. Leclerc was the faster Ferrari in FP1 and FP2.

Verstappen ended up third. He is hating the car, as usual, but is still wringing the neck of it. Lawson has been struggling this weekend and outside of the top 10 in FP2 and FP3. It was not an easy car to drive, unlike his usual car, the Racing Bull, which had Lindblad 7th in all three sessions. Their stand in, Yuki Tsunoda, is also struggling, back in 15th in FP3.

McLaren Floundering

McLaren are struggling, as expected. They are losing out on the straights due to their short gear ratios. Piastri is having a particularly frustrating weekend. He must be the most blocked driver out there, but he is just slower than Norris.

Alpine got both cars into the top 10, just, 9th and 10th. Hopefully Colapinto can get a good grid position for tomorrow’s race.

The Audis are not the fastest on the straights but are doing well enough, just outside the top 10 in FP3. Haas have brought an upgraded aero package to this race, and they have one upgraded Ferrari power unit, which is in Ocon’s car. It was Bearman who popped up in a surprise 8th place in FP2, but he has been 14th in the other two, which is more representative. The team will be worried that Ocon has been no better than 17th.

Williams have looked better on a track where they have gone well at, but getting one car into Q2 is hardly impressive. Aston Martin are as bad as expected, but at least Alonso is beating the two Cadillacs.

Match Betting

I am just going for one match bet double

2026 Italian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Verstappen to beat Piastri + Hamilton to beat Norris @ 2.175 with Livescorebet

The final bet is a more speculative one. Alpine have both cars with the upgrade and got both into the top 10 in FP3. They have had both cars in Q3 just once in 2026, in Miami, but it has paid to follow the upgrades in 2026. Qualifying has not been the Alpine’s strongest suit this season but at the odds, I’ll take the risk that the upgrade (and Mercedes’ power) will be enough to get both over the line.

2026 Italian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point both Alpines to reach Q3 @ 6.00 with Unibet

-JamesPunt