2026 Italian GP Betting Preview

The Dutch GP was a profitable one, with 3.25 points won to reduce our seasonal deficit to -10.08 points. Onwards and upwards, check out James Punt’s 2026 Italian GP betting preview and tips below.

2026 Italian GP – The Track

We now head to the historic Autodromo Nazionale di Monza and a very different track to Zandvoort and before that, the Hungaroring. Those two tracks were packed full of corners with just one main straight. Monza is all about straights and there are only eleven ‘corners’ in the lap. In reality, there are two chicanes, two quick near 90 degree right handers, a left – right – left kink and two long, fast curves. The rest is straights and around 80% of the lap is spent flat out, or at least, it used to be.

The Monza track has hosted more GPs than any other track and it is steeped in history, but it is not at all suited to this new breed of F1 power units. The total time braking around the track amounts to around twelve seconds, really just braking into the two chicanes. That means the batteries are not going to get many recharging opportunities. The drivers will find the cars running out of power, maybe three or four times a lap, and some run out of power more quickly than others.

Form Up And Down

We have seen the relative form of the various teams rise and fall at different venues, and when different teams bring upgrades at different times. That is set to continue. McLaren won the last two races on tracks that were ideal for these power units. Lots of opportunities to get the batteries charged up and the drivers could just race and not worry about energy management. That will not be the case this weekend. The bring back V10s brigade will be in clover.

Different tracks can produce different winners and Monza is one of the real outlier tracks. It is at the extreme end of the low downforce spectrum, coming on the back of two high downforce tracks.

Pole Not Vital

The pole position driver has won just five of the last twelve races here, and just one of the last six, the driver in 2nd won three, 3rd once, 4th once and three wins from 7th and 10th. The attrition rate has been low in recent years, with just a total of three in the last three, but the average in the last twelve was 2.58. In 2026 the attrition rate is 3.83, with Aston Martin and Cadillac being a big contributor to that high level.

This is a track where the two drivers helping each other in qualifying, by providing a tow on one of the straights, is key to maximising grid positions. There are two problems with this. The first is getting the two drivers to co-operate and play fair, and the other is getting it right.

It will be easy for Verstappen to get whom ever his teammate is, to co-operate (now confirmed to be Lawson). He is the number 1 driver. At Mercedes, it is assumed that Antonelli’s job will be to give Russell a tow. The Italian’s grid penalty makes him the defacto number two, for this weekend only. It will stick in his throat that his home race is being sacrificed for the greater good of the rest of the season, and the crowd won’t like it either.

Ferrari Rivalry

At Ferrari….things might be more difficult. The two drivers were not co-operating in Zandvoort and Leclerc will feel that he can’t really afford to make things easier for Hamilton, who is 18 points ahead of him. There is, if not bad blood between the two, then certainly a battle to be the team’s main man.

Executing the tow isn’t always straight forward and traffic can mess things up, and can provide a potential excuse for a driver that may not want to help their teammate. Some will do it better than others.

2026 Italian GP: The Weather

It ended up being a dry weekend at Zandvoort, at least while the F1 cars were on the track. We are yet to see these new generation of F1 cars in wet conditions, and that will continue to be the case this weekend. We may be into the autumn season in the northern hemisphere, but it is still summer in Monza. It is set to be hot, dry and sunny for all three days.

Development Wars

The Dutch GP saw big upgrades for Alpine. An upgraded power unit in the Aston Martin, and the second part of McLaren’s upgrade program. All would have seemed to have worked, but maybe not as much as the results suggest.

This is Ferrari’s home race, and to a lesser degree, Racing Bulls’ home race. We can expect upgrades on those two cars. In particular, Ferrari will be introducing an upgraded power unit, handy on what is a power-hungry circuit.

Audi are changing their gear ratios. The regulations allow for that to be done once during the season. The new ratios will be adjusted so that first gear is now longer and eighth gear shorter. Race starts may therefore be more difficult again. However, the engine will operate within its optimal operating range for longer, thus improving overall efficiency. Audi’s big aero upgrade will not come until Baku, with a final season upgrade at Las Vegas.

With this track being an outlier, we can expect to see many track specific parts. Low downforce wings and such like, which can get a run out in a few limited races per year, but they are not true updates. It is not a track that is best suited to introducing a big upgrade in the same way as, say Barcelona would be. But, it is a good place to introduce power unit upgrades.

2026 Italian GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes 

Still leading both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships, but they have only won two of the last six races. Their decision to not go for any major upgrades was always likely to mean that they would lose that big early season advantage as the season progressed. They hoped that they would have done enough to effectively win the championships in the first half of the season, and they probably have.

There isn’t one driver, or one team, chasing them down as was the case with Verstappen chasing down the McLarens last year. This year we have two teams, McLaren and Ferrari, doing the chasing, and three drivers, Hamilton, Leclerc and now Norris.

That Ferrari are winning races, and now McLaren, means that the available points are being spread around. Antonelli’s lead in the Drivers’ Championship lead remains a healthy 59 points over Russell and Hamilton, 83 points ahead of Norris and 87 ahead of Leclerc. Mercedes lead second place Ferrari by 87 points and McLaren by 162.

Eleven To Go

There are eleven GPs still scheduled, and one Sprint race, so plenty of points are up for grabs, but it is very unlikely that we will get the full 24 GPs. The Bahrain GP has been transferred to Malaysia, but it is very unlikely that the Saudi Arabian GP, the Qatar GP or the Abu Dhabi GP will take place.

The magic number is 22. The FIA need to deliver a minimum of 22 races or face handing back lumps of cash to broadcast partners. It will be announced very soon, but the word is that the season finale will be back in Italy, at Imola. In December, when it snows. Losing two races from the calendar plays into Antonelli/Mercedes hands.

Mercedes do not have the fastest car anymore, but they still have a very good one. They have had a podium finish in every race of the season and are likely to get another this weekend, but probably not with Antonelli.

Grid Penalty

This is his home race, but Mercedes has decided that it is the best place to give him a brand new power unit, gearbox, the full works. The team’s unreliability mean that both drivers will need an extra power unit above the four allowed by regulation. That means taking grid penalties and a track like Monza is the best place for a quick car to make up places.

Even if he starts from last position, Antonelli would still be expected to make his way through the field and into the top 6. The team do not want to risk starting with both cars at the back of the grid, so Russell will take his penalty elsewhere.

Opportunity Knocks For Russell

This will be Russell’s big chance to make a big impact on Antonelli’s lead, but the tables will be turned at some future point. Russell has never gone that well at Monza, scoring just one podium finish. Mercedes have not won here since 2018 but their 2026 car has been good on power circuits and its electrical power deployment on the straights is good.

The recent FIA power rankings still have Red Bull as the most powerful power unit, but when taking overall performance, it is reckoned Mercedes is some 8BHP more powerful than the Red Bull. Not much, but useful.

Performance Updates

Mercedes have only brought 19 performance updates to their car this season, only Williams have brought less, and they are well shy of Ferrari who have brought the most. Toto Wolff says Mercedes don’t have the money, but all teams have the same cost cap, save for some extra spending on underperforming power units allowed.

Are they gambling on trying to freewheel to the title on the back of a good first half? Maybe they are saving money for the 2027 car, or maybe they overspent in pre-season? If the gap to the chasers narrows significantly, will they be faced with having to open the cheque book? Lead times on developments are long, so that decision is likely to have already been made.

Ferrari 

The obvious danger to Mercedes this weekend. Ferrari target winning their home race and they will have an upgraded power unit, which will feature a bigger turbo, giving more power. They designed their power unit with a small turbo to be able to make fast starts, and that paid some dividends in the early races.

However, the FIA cited safety concerns to change the starting procedure and that has removed Ferrari’s advantage. So, they have gone for a bigger turbo. I would imagine that the car will also feature some upgrades.

The team are playing down the importance of the upgrade, as they usually do. Ferrari are said to have only the third most powerful power unit, and it would have to be a very big improvement to change that, but we can only wait and see.

It is said that the current Ferrari PU is nearly 40 BHP behind Mercedes, and the new upgrade is set to bring around 15BHP. That still leaves Ferrari at a power disadvantage, but closer.

Track Record

Ferrari have won two of the last seven races here, both with Charles Leclerc. He was also runner up in 2022. Lewis Hamilton has won five races here, the last back in 2018 and his last podium was in 2019. Ferrari won the Spanish GP with Hamilton and Leclerc won at Silverstone.

That is a power-hungry venue which bodes well for Ferrari, but Antonelli would have won, had it not been for a problem that killed his pace. Ferrari have not covered themselves in glory strategy wise in recent races. They are very prone to dropping the ball and underachieving.

Ferrari introduced a new floor and diffuser in the Netherlands and they will run a special Monza specific floor this weekend, similar to the one used in Austria and Silverstone. They qualified 2nd and 3rd in those two races, with Leclerc winning in Britain, Hamilton 3rd.

The two drivers were bickering with each other at Zandvoort and the team’s messy strategy didn’t help. It was a podium lost for Hamilton.

Ferrari have brought 36 performance upgrades to the car this season, and more this weekend. That rate of development can’t go on forever, so Ferrari need to make real progress with this upgrade.

McLaren 

Norris was back to his best in Hungary and Zandvoort and the upgraded McLaren is a very quick car, but it has its limitations. Give it a track with a lot of fast corners and it will win, but in slow corners and on long straights, it will struggle. It is the straights that will hurt them this weekend.

Their car is draggy, which costs it speed on the straights thanks to its shorter wheel base, but there is another problem. The car was designed with shorter gear ratios than the other Mercedes powered cars. That is good on tracks like the Hungaroring and Zandvoort, but on a track dominated by long straights, it is definitely not.

Their top speeds peak around 18 km/h short of the other Mercedes powered (and geared) cars. Their engineers will have looked at all the tracks and decided that this was the best way to go overall. They will lose out on tracks like this, Jeddah, Las Vegas and Baku to greater or lesser extents, but gain on other tracks with more cornering, especially fast ones.

Slow In The Straights

The McLaren will be slower down the long straights and won’t have enough in the way of fast corners to balance things out. Yes, they will be quick around the Parabolica and through Curva Grande, but that is a relatively small part of the lap. How big a difference their new rear wing will make remains to be seen, but it has taken them so long to introduce, I’m not expecting a big difference.

It is hard to say exactly where McLaren will stack up this weekend, but they are likely to be behind Mercedes, maybe Ferrari and even Red Bull. McLaren have been 2nd and 3rd here for the last two years, so they know how to set up a car to go well here, but there are things engineered into this car that are not ideal for this track.

They will introduce their funky flip up rear wing. They are calling it the ‘H wing’ for this race and re-introduce some aero parts previously used on low downforce tracks, but they are not true upgrades. Clearly, McLaren are doing everything to minimise their drag deficit to the opposition, but that doesn’t change their gearing issue.

Red Bull 

The second of the FIA’s power unit assessments has been done, and they say that the Red Bull Ford is still the most powerful. The problem is that these tests only measure the power produced by the internal combustion engine, not the whole power unit. Everybody knows that the Mercedes has the best power unit, but the Red Bull has the most powerful fuel burning part of the power units. But at least that will be rewarded on a power-hungry track.

The Red Bull has gone quite well on power circuits like Canada, Spa and Austria, but it just isn’t as good a car as the other top teams. Sometimes a relatively poor car can suddenly look more competitive on an outlier track. This straight dominated circuit is definitely one of those, and when you have an ultra-low downforce set up, it can suit some cars more than others.

If you have a car with a poorly performing rear wing, for example, you might go better here with the track specific ‘tea tray’ wings used for the low downforce set up.

More Competitive

I am not saying Red Bull are in the hunt for the win, but they may be more competitive than usual and are worth watching closely to see how they go in practice. Verstappen has won three of the last four races here and if he gets a sniff, he will be giving it everything. Red Bull are happy that their version of the low drag funky wing is safe to use and that will be another plus.

Red Bull have not gone mad on developments and have been forced to do more updates for reliability reasons than others. They are not in the hunt for titles this season but are well clear of the Racing Bulls and Alpines.

It would make sense for them to take the long-term view and crack on with the 2027 car, rather than throw resources on this one. Verstappen having committed to the team long term, they are not having to deliver a winning package for him for the rest of 2026.

It has been confirmed that Isack Hadjar remains unfit to drive and Liam Lawson will again take his place this weekend.

Racing Bulls 

Their Italian HQ is a lot closer to Imola than Monza, but this still counts as a home race, and one which they have won before, twice. Once with Sebastian Vettel under their Toro Rosso guise in 2008, and with Pierre Gasly in the Alpha Tuari in 2020.

The teams run of seven consecutive points scoring finishes ended in the Netherlands and their chances were not helped with Lawson being moved to cover for Hadjar at Red Bull, and he in turn replaced by Tsunoda. They also lost out to Alonso in the Aston Martin, and Gasly in the upgraded Alpine.

Six Point Cushion

The Racing Bulls are just six points clear of Alpine and with Colapinto also due to run the upgrades on his Alpine from this week, the Racing Bulls could get squeezed out of the points again, unless they can bring upgrades of their own.

Racing Bulls are another team who have not brought that many performance upgrades to their car. With 25, the same as Red Bull, they do have some scope for more. Being just three points ahead of Alpine means they are in a very tight race for the additional prizemoney involved and this battle between the two is fascinating. The team would really like Lawson back.

They do have the Red Bull power unit and that should be something of an advantage on this track.

Alpine 

With some time to study the data on their Zandvoort upgrade on Gasly’s car, Alpine will be hoping to extract more performance from it. It had looked like a 0.3s – 0.4s gain per lap on Friday, but as the weekend went on, Gasly slipped back and in the end it was 0.1s – 0.2s in the race.

The Alpines have struggled in qualifying relative to their race pace. That shouldn’t be such a handicap on a track like this and Gasly will be aiming for his first points finish here since 2022. Colapinto was given a one-year contract extension earlier this week, so he will be a bit more relaxed, but he is yet to score a point here.

Haas 

Still hanging on to 7th place with their 21 points scored. Their last point was scored in Monaco back in early June. The team are not spending money on upgrades and they really are just making up the numbers right now. You have to wonder, what is the point of this Haas F1 team? Waiting to get a big cash offer for a take over?

Haas use the Ferrari power unit, but there is no guarantee that they will use the upgraded package this weekend. Sometimes the customer teams have to change other things in the car to accommodate any changes in the dimensions of an upgraded unit.

Audi 

Tweaking their gear ratios might improve race performance, but Audi won’t have another upgrade until Baku in a couple of weeks’ time. They are happy with the chassis and won’t be doing anything more with this year’s power unit.

They have used one of their AUDO upgrades on the PU, really to make it more driveable, but horsepower wise, the Audi is around 60bhp shy of Mercedes. A real handicap on a power track. Still, being able to score points with such a big power deficit does suggest that their chassis is more than decent. Changing the gearing is aimed at improving overall efficiency rather than out and out power, but it should bring time benefits.

Audi have now had four consecutive points scoring races, picking up 14 points and are now just five behind the hapless Haas team. Bortoleto finished 8th here last year and it would be no surprise to see another Audi top 8 finish, their fourth in the last five races. Picking which driver is the trick.

Williams 

Their past record here suggests that Williams might have a better weekend. Albon has had three consecutive points finishes at Monza for Williams, but the team have not scored a point since an 8th place, a lucky 8th place, at Monaco and they have become even less competitive since then. The team will introduce a new car in Baku and are just hanging on until then. I would say their prospects remain bleak.

Aston Martin 

Alonso landed our points finish bet at Zandvoort, but it was less about the car’s improved performance, than just being able to pull off what was effectively a one stop strategy. The red flag gave Alonso a free pitstop to put on a new set of hard tyres, and he nursed them to the end of the race.

The team introduced their new car in Hungary and Honda brought an upgraded power unit for Zandvoort. The new car was an improvement, but the drivers were underwhelmed by the new Honda unit. It was more difficult to drive and not a huge improvement.

Honda and the team have been working at trying to improve driveability, but they are not optimistic that they are going to enjoy a power-hungry circuit. Even their upgraded PU is estimated to be 90BHP behind Mercedes. That is going to be very noticeable.

Cadillac 

Both drivers have good record here, but their car is the slowest on the grid, and not very reliable. As with Haas, it is not clear if they will use the new Ferrari PU, but it wouldn’t make a great deal of difference if they did.

2026 Italian GP Summary

Picking the winner is complicated by having one of the big players facing a grid penalty. We don’t yet know yet how big a penalty. It could be just 10 places for a new ICU or he go all the way to the back if Mercedes decide to renew all the component parts. Toto Wolff has hinted that the latter will be the case, but I guess the team will only say at the last possible moment, to keep their opponents guessing.

However, it isn’t going to make his chances any easier and Antonelli is a 15.00 shot to win and he would need things to fall his way big time to land the odds.

Norris Fav

Russell is the second favourite, behind Norris. The McLaren driver is the 2.63 favourite, which is not great on a track that should not be a good one for them. Russell hasn’t got a great track record here, but the Mercedes has the best power unit and better deployment than the opposition. He should have better straight line speed, for longer, on the straights.

Russell is 3.50 to win the race but bigger to be the fastest qualifier. Norris may have got the last two poles, on very McLaren friendly circuits, but Mercedes have taken the other ten. Russell has had four and with Antonelli not chasing pole here due to his penalty, Russell may have a bit of an open goal.

2026 Italian GP Tip: 2 points George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 4.50 with Betfair, Skybet, BET365

It might be a bit more difficult in the race, more things can go wrong, but he still makes sense as the most likely winner.

2026 Italian GP Tip: 1 point George Russell to win the Italian GP @ 3.50 with Unibet, Skybet, Betfair BET365

I expect Mercedes to be top dogs around this track, but the exact pecking order of the top four is not easy to predict. Ferrari have a new PU, McLaren their new ‘H wing’, while Red Bulls’ powerful ICE could give them some advantages. For that reason, I will leave any podium or top six bets alone for now.

The battle for the minor points is always very competitive but tends to swing the way of the teams bringing new upgrades. Audi should see some improvement in power unit performance, Alpine have an upgrade for Colapinto and should be able to get more out of Gasly’s upgrade, which was rushed on to the car at Zandvoort.

Racing Bulls had their good run stall in the Netherlands, not helped by Lawson being moved over to Red Bull, where he is again this weekend. Tsunoda is his replacement again, and he should be more comfortable in the car, having had a race weekend at Zandvoort under his belt.

In The Hunt

Those in the hunt for minor points would seem to be Lindblad (1.40), Hulkenberg (2.38), Bortoleto (2.38), Gasly (1.73), Tsunoda (2.75) and Colapinto (3.40). Lindblad looks a bit short, and we don’t know about any upgrades for the Racing Bulls. The Audi drivers look about right, as does Gasly.

I’m not a big Tsunoda fan, but Colapinto has gone well on the higher speed tracks and he will have the benefit of the upgraded Alpine this weekend. He has scored in half of the races so far in 2026, so his odds look good enough value for an ante post bet.

2026 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Colapinto to finish in the points @ 3.40 with Betfred

-JamesPunt