2026 Azerbaijan GP Betting Preview

Lady Luck wasn’t on James Punt’s side in Spain but he’s aiming to rebound immediately in Baku. Check out his 2026 Azerbaijan GP betting preview and tips below.

2026 Azerbaijan GP

The Spanish GP was a bit of a disaster all round. A terrible racetrack, produced a terrible race, and we got no luck at all with our bets. Thankfully we only had five, but four lost.

Qualifying saw us losing out by 0.01 seconds. Even more annoying was Lando Norris getting screwed over by the VSC at just the worst moment possible. From controlling the race and looking very comfortable, he was knocked down the order with no realistic chance of overtaking the cars in front, purely due to the track not offering up any overtaking opportunities.

In the end, it was -3.68point loss, taking the season tally to -5.86 points. It is fair to say that we are due a break or two.

Moving On

We now move on to the next run of three GPs in three weeks, starting with the 2026 Azerbaijan GP, at the Baku street circuit. This is a fairly new addition to the calendar, with the first race held here in 2016. Red Bull have won five races (+1 Sprint Race), Mercedes three and McLaren one.

There are five previous Azerbaijan GP winners on the grid. Sergio Perez is the winning most driver here, with two GP wins and a sprint race win. Verstappen has two wins, Hamilton, Piastri and Bottas one each.

2026 Azerbaijan GP: The Track

The track is a bit of a modern classic, in my opinion, and proves that you can design a street circuit on which overtaking can be done, and dramatic racing is the norm here. Being a street track means that there is little room for error and many drivers’ races here have ended with a collision, and the accidents can be big.

Like a proper street circuit, the drivers need to get very close to the barriers without hitting them, or at least not too hard. In last year’s qualifying session, there were no less than six red flags, and the session ran for over two hours. Verstappen ended up on pole, with Carlos Sainz second for Williams, and Liam Lawson third in the Racing Bull.

Pole Not Pivotal

Unlike many street tracks, the pole sitter doesn’t have a great record, winning just three of the nine GPs here. The average ‘not classified’ rate is 3.33, but the reality is that the attrition rate is higher. Late race incidents have been a characteristic of this track. Collisions as drivers try overtakes and tyre blow outs have been another feature.

In 2024 Sainz and Perez crashed out on the penultimate lap. In 2021 Verstappen suffered a late race blow out. It was Bottas who suffered the same fate whilst leading in 2019, getting a puncture on lap 49. In 2017, Kimi Raikkonen retired on lap 48. So, the attrition rate is higher than the not classified rate. Drivers who are in reliable cars, and with a good race completion record may be rewarded this weekend.

We often get surprise results here with drivers such as Lance Stroll, Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz scoring unlikely podiums.

51 Lap Race

The circuit is 6 km long with 51 lap race. Its signature feature is a very long ‘straight’, which has three kinks, before hitting the straight mode zone and into a 90 degree left hander. This sector gives drivers the chance to get a strong tow from the cars in front and out-brake them into turn 1. Another 90-degree left hander leads into another, shorter straight with a straight mode zone, ending with more 90 degree corners, before moving into the Old Town section were passing is impossible, but crashing very possible

The layout does offer overtaking chances, but not without risk. Ambition can outweigh talent and end with a car in the barrier. With these lower downforce cars in 2026, perhaps we will see a few more car-barrier interfaces.

The set up for the cars is a compromise between the high downforce needed for the fourteen or so ‘proper corners’, and low downforce/drag for very long straight. It usually provides decent racing and moments of drama. The perfect antidote to the mega bore that was the Madring.

2026 Azerbaijan GP: The Weather

We can expect cooler conditions than we have had for the last two races in Spain and Italy. The first day of free practice will be overcast with strong winds, but dry. The dry weather continues, but with more sunshine for Friday and Saturday and the wind will decrease and be quite light by raceday.

A strong wind will make things difficult for the drivers on Thursday. The modern part of the city is built with a grid layout and the wind tends to be funnelled between buildings. The cars are sheltered from it one minute and then hit with big gusts between the buildings the next. That can unsettle the car and gives the drivers something else to think about.

It is hard to say who the track will favour. It is a bit of a hybrid between Monaco and Monza. Antonelli won both of those, but he is no stick on this weekend.

Development Wars

Finally, after fourteen races, Williams will finally have their ‘B spec’ car ready. I imagine spare parts will be at a premium and the mechanics will be praying that the two drivers can avoid any accidents before Sunday’s race. Williams got a surprise front row in qualifying and a podium finish with Carlos Sainz last year, but I am not expecting a repeat. That said, on this track, you never know.

Mclaren will have some aerodynamic upgrades and will once more use their ‘H’ flip flop rear wing, last seen at Monza, to reduce drag on the long straight. They started the season behind the curve, but are certainly pushing on with upgrades right now, and doing so effectively.

2026 Azerbaijan GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

The team will not introduce its latest upgrade until next weekend’s race in Malaysia. They really don’t need one as the two titles are pretty much done and dusted. They had hoped to get through the season without another major upgrade, but Ferrari’s Barcelona upgrade spooked them into more upgrades for the 2026 car. Since then, it is McLaren who have the fastest car but after a poor start to the season, they are too far back to be a real threat.

Antonelli has had some big slices of good fortune in the last couple of races. The VSC has been his friend and has allowed him to beat Russell in Monza, and Norris in Madrid. That can’t keep happening.

This track has a very long straight on which the Mercedes will hold an advantage, but there are a lot of corners which may favour McLaren. Mercedes have not been on pole for the last four races and that reflects that the competition has closed them down, with Norris being their number 1 threat.

Russell has had three podium finfishes in the last four years here, while Antonelli was 4th in his first F1 race here last year.

Ferrari

Still clinging on to second place in the Constructors’ Championship, but they are losing out to McLaren, Mercedes and Verstappen. They have not been on the podium for the last four races and are still to get a pole position.

Things had looked very promising for Ferrari in the summer. Winning in Spain and Britain, but they have lost out to the McLaren upgrades, they are being outperformed by Verstappen and still can’t match Mercedes. The two drivers are not working well together and now the Italian press are going for Fred Vasseur. It is the classic Ferrari story. Glimpses of things going the right way, but a few missteps, acrimony and finally blame. The team principle gets the chop and the cycle repeats.

Heat On Hamilton

Charles Leclerc has never won here, but got pole position every year between 2021 and 2024. He crashed out in the 2019 and 2025 qualifying sessions. Lewis Hamilton is getting some heat from the Italian press, who reported that he had asked for certain personnel to be removed. He has called the press out as liars, and that doesn’t often turn out well. His record in Baku is not great. He has one win but has not finished better than 4th in the last five GPs here.

Even when the car is going well, the team find a way to underperform. Morale is low and people are looking over their shoulders to see if the knives are out for them.

Ferrari will not have any significant upgrades until the United States GP in a month’s time. Both drivers are going to take a power unit penalty, and that is likely to be before the USGP. It is rumoured that Leclerc may take one this weekend.

I suspect Leclerc will be the faster Ferrari this weekend, but if he starts from the back of the grid, Hamilton may extend his 24-point lead over Leclerc. I wouldn’t be in any rush to back Leclerc in any market until we hear what is going on with his PU.

McLaren

The car to beat right now. Norris has had three of the last four pole positions and won two of those races, and he was massively unlucky in Madrid. He looks to be in the form of his life. He is not under the same pressure as he was last year, and he is enjoying finally having a competitive car in which to win races again.

The upgrades to the car have addressed some of the car’s high drag characteristics and improved their low speed corner performance. Will this track suit them? Probably. The upgrades they brought in the Netherlands and Italy have made the car a better all-rounder and they are using the tyres better than before.

Solid Record

Norris’ record here is solid rather than spectacular. Always in the top 9, always finished the race, but hasn’t finished better than 4th. Oscar Piastri won here in 2024 but had a nightmare last year. He crashed in qualifying, started from 9th on the grid, made a hash of the race start, and then crashed out on the opening lap. He never recovered his confidence after that and saw his World Championship hopes slip through his fingers. The Australian is 66 points behind Norris and 2-6 in the last eight races.

McLaren will bring a set of upgrades aimed to improve the aerodynamic performance of the MCL40 in Baku. Additionally, the H-Wing that debuted in Monza, will be back in action on a track where the drag reduction is a crucial factor.

Red Bull

It is hard to know what to make of Red Bull. On the one hand, Max Verstappen is scoring podiums for fun. In the last five races where he has finished the race, he has been on the podium. On the other hand, it is all a bit of a struggle, certainly in practice and qualifying. Verstappen has managed three front rows, but no pole positions. His average qualifying position in 2026 is 5.38, and even a great driver like Verstappen is up against it starting from the third or fourth row.

The car isn’t the best on any kind of circuit layout, but he was 2nd quickest in qualifying at Miami, Monaco and Spa. Hadjar was third quickest in Melbourne, and Max in Madrid two weeks ago. Of those tracks, only Spa is an old school track. The others are street or hybris tracks with a street theme.

That may bode well for Verstappen’s chances. He has won here in 2022 and 2024, and was the runner up in 2023. Red Bull are the winning most team on this track, so they know how to set the car up for Baku.

Isack Hadjar is expected back for this race. He completed an evaluation on the team’s simulator earlier this week but I expect Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda will be on standby, just in case Hadjar struggled in ‘real life’ conditions.

Racing Bulls

Now nine points ahead of Alpine, thanks to the FIA deciding to reverse their previous reversal of awarding third place in Monaco to Pierre Gasly. The decision meant that Gasly was placed in 7th position and lost out on nine Constructors’ Championship points. That is potentially a lot of money lost for Alpine should they lose out on 5th place in the championship.

Racing Bulls haven’t been helped by losing Liam Lawson to Red Bull while Hadjar recovers from injury. Tsunoda was drafted in to replace him, and while he has scored a point, he is not in the same class as Lawson. The Kiwi driver is due to return to Racing Bulls this weekend. He finished 5th here last year, while Lindblad is the only driver on the grid this weekend making his Baku F1 debut.

Racing Bulls have only failed to score points in two races in 2026, but they have only had two double points finishes in the last five. With Alpine and Audi being more competitive after their upgrades, Racing Bulls are under more pressure.

Racing Bulls, under their various monikers, have been the better team compared to Alpine here. They have scored points in four of the last five races here, including a 3rd and two 5th places. Alpine have not scored here for the last three years.

Alpine

Digging deep with a ‘backs against the wall’ mentality. Gasly got that shock pole position at Monza, just after getting the news that he had lost his podium from Monaco. He finished 7th there, but struggled in Madrid two weeks ago. Gasly has scored in just three of the last seven races, and while he has a 3rd and 5th place finish to his credit here, his record is patchy. The team haven’t scored a point here since 2022. Colapinto finished 8th on debut for Williams in 2024, but was last man home here last year.

Their car is not as predictable as the Racing Bulls, and it is hard to back them ante post right now.

Haas

Their pointless run now stretches to eight races, and that is despite both cars now having had the upgraded chassis and new spec Ferrari PU. This season has been classic Haas. Score some points in the early races, get out developed, and try and hang on to the end of the season.

They are just four points ahead of Audi and with up to nine more races to go, it looks very unlikely they can hold off Audi. They are ten points ahead of Williams, and if the upgraded Williams can start scoring some points, that could be their next big battle.

Williams

Like Haas, Williams have scored a point in the last eight races. This weekend, all eyes will be on them, as they introduce their B spec car. They do expect a big improvement, but will it be big enough to join the likes of Audi, Racing Bulls and Alpine in the fight for the minor points?

When the new development parts were signed off, it looked like it would be enough. However, it has taken so long to get the new parts manufactured, that the competition has moved on. We will just have to wait and see how much time gains the upgrades bring.

Aston Martin

Madrid was as bad as expected for the underpowered Aston Martins. Stroll has been not classified in seven of the last ten races and it is all a big waste of time for him. Alonso has at least scored three points.

The B spec car is much better to drive according to Alonso, but the Honda PU is so far off in terms of power, that a big gap remains to the points scoring teams. Parts of this track will be OK for the car, but the very long straight will see them as sitting ducks.

Cadillac

It all seems to be getting a bit messy for the new team. Rumours of them being dragged into a financial scandal not of their own making, reports of staff being told to re-locate to the USA, and a recent change of team principal.

As for on track performance, they remain in poor shape. Slow and unreliable. Both drivers have won on this track, and nobody has a better record than Perez, but there is nothing he can do in this car, short of pray for a freak race at some point, and even then, the car would have to last a race distance, which is becoming increasingly rare for him.

2026 Azerbaijan GP: Summary

The race for the Championships are all but done, but the races themselves looks quite open. If we look at the season from the Barcelona GP onwards, we have two drivers very closely matched. Antonelli has won three races, had three other podiums and one pole position. Lando Norris has won two races, had two other podiums and three pole positions.

The two Ferrari drivers have one win each, and one other podium each, but have regressed in the most recent races. George Russell has won one, had four other podiums and two poles. His performances have not been quite as dire as it is easy to believe at times. Max Verstappen has had no wins and no poles, but five podium finishes.

Outside of the ‘Big Four’, it is Arvid Lindblad who has been the most consistent scorer, picking up seven top ten finishes. Colapinto has had five, Gasly four, Hulkenberg three and Bortoleto two. Liam Lawson has had six, but the has raced for Red Bull for the last three races.

Unlucky Lando

Norris has been a bit unlucky. He was going to win in Madrid, until a VSC went against him. The all-important qualifying at Monza didn’t work out well for him when Piastri went off when giving him a tow. He drove a good recovery race and made up four places on the Sunday.

Norris got the track layouts he needed in Hungary and the Netherlands, but the McLaren was better than expected on the straight dominated Monza layout. Madrid also looked to be less than ideal for them, but Norris got pole and was dominating the race before the VSC.

The momentum, the development wars and Norris’ confidence are all going in the right direction. At Mercedes, they have reached the point that they have been passed by McLaren in performance. Their upgrade will not be ready in time for this race. Antonelli has ridden his luck in the last two races and that won’t last.

I expected Norris to be favourite, or close to it, this weekend. The longest straight in F1 could be a weakness for him this weekend, but the rest of the track should be stronger. Baku hasn’t been his best track, but he has been solid enough.

Red Bull Hopes

It has been a good track for Red Bull, if not Verstappen’s best. Perez bested him here and Ricciardo also beat him, but he has won two of the last four and been second in another. The Red Bull is a handful, and not the best car he has driven, but he is getting a lot of podium finishes.

Charles Leclerc is a qualifying expert around this track. He thrives on short corners and there are a lot of them around here. However, he may elect to take a new PU this weekend and that would mean there is no reason for him to do anything more than do a few laps in Q1, save the mileage on the PU and have some fun on Sunday.

Every race this season has been a bit of a step into the unknown, but it looks like we have arrived at a point where Norris can be realistically considered for favouritism, with the two Mercedes, and maybe Verstappen, the big threats.

Ferrari have put themselves under pressure, but nobody else is. Antonelli has a huge lead, Russell is resigned to his fate, Max isn’t racing for a title and Piastri has gone AWOL. I would say Norris is in a good place right now. He has regained his mojo and driving really well.

He gets the early selection as race winner.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Azerbaijan GP @ 5.20 with Unibet

There is just one other bet at this stage. Isack Hadjar returns to Red Bull this weekend, which means that Liam Lawson returns to the Racing Bulls team.

The market has Lawson at 12.00 to finish in the top six. That would be very generous if he was still in the Red Bull but may still be quite generous in the Racing Bull.

Lawson has had three top six finishes in 2026, two in the Racing Bull, one in the Red Bull. All three have come in the last nine races. He finished 5th here for Racing Bulls last season, having qualified 3rd. It was a mad qualifying session last year, which helped, but it is a track that has tended to be chaotic over the years.

Reliable

The Racing Bull is a decent car, reliable, a good allrounder and they had their strongest qualifying session in Monaco. This is no Monaco, but bits of it are not dissimilar.

We cannot rule out the chance that Lawson ends up back at Red Bull, which should improve his chances of a top 6 to some degree. If Hadjar finds things uncomfortable in free practice, he may step away. I doubt that he would. Racing drivers do not like to show weakness, but if he is still feeling it, and decides to drive anyway, it may have a negative impact on his performance, and that may make it a little easier for a driver from outside the ‘big four’ to make the top 6.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 0.5 point Liam Lawson to finish in the top 6 @ 12.00 with Betfred, Betfair, Skybet

Please remember that this race weekend starts on Thursday with FP1 and FP2, with qualifying on Friday and the race on Saturday.

-JamesPunt