2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Preview

No joy yesterday in qualifying, but we go again. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday preview and tips below.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday

Outside of Mercedes being massively faster than everyone else, it has been a messy weekend so far, and an unusual grid as a result. The final grid positions have been changed thanks to post qualifying penalties for Sainz, Perez and the two Aston Martins.

George Russell had the biggest winning margin of the year in qualifying yesterday at 0.837 seconds. It is a long lap, but that is a different formula.

Nobody was going match that time but there were a few hard luck stories and we have some drivers out of place on the grid.

Antonelli Crash

The most notable one is Kimi Antonelli. The championship leader crashed out in FP1 and as a result, starts from 16th place. Verstappen had been in 2nd place in FP3 and looked like a contender for pole, but his car was misbehaving in qualifying and to rub salt in his wounds, he was caught out by the yellow flag in Q3 and he had to abort his final run. He starts down in eighth.

I managed to pick the wrong Ferrari to back in qualifying. Leclerc starts second and that was as good as he could have been, but Hamilton was feeling sorry for himself, saying that he had been giving Leclerc a tow for the whole session, but he got nothing back. He starts in sixth place and a couple of places down on where he should have been, at least.

McLaren Upgrades

The two McLarens have been hard to figure all weekend. They have an upgraded car, which the team say is working as planned, but they were slow until Q3 when they topped the time sheets at one point. Piastri ended up 3rd, Norris in 5th. Much better than anything they had shown in practice.

Piastri was surprised with his 3rd place, but if you consider that Antonelli was in the wall, Verstappen had his problems and Ferrari went in one handed, he could have ended up in a more expected sixth place. Norris made a mistake on his final run, pushing a bit too hard trying to get on the front row. They are still lacking straight-line speed and that will be a problem as the straight is where overtaking is done here.

Hadjar Has Wings

Hadjar ended up as the fastest Red Bull and starts 4th. Verstappen reported that his engine was down on power in qualifying, due to battery problems. If the team can sort that out he will be looking for another podium, but starting from eighth makes it hard. Red Bull brought some significant upgrades this weekend and both drivers said that they were working.

Alpine got both cars into Q3 but the two drivers felt very differently. Gasly believed he should have been 6th as he had a messy final run. He was very happy with the car and looking forward to a strong race. Colapinto said he is struggling under braking and not at all comfortable in the car. It is only the third time the team have got both cars into Q3, which tells us plenty.

The Haas has looked more competitive this weekend, but Ocon will have been disappointed to end up 14th (starts 13th). He got caught out by a yellow flag. Bearman didn’t get a tow in Q2 and is very bullish about his potential today. He starts tenth after Sainz penalty, and while he likely to get passed by Antonelli, he should have the pace to attack Colapinto and finally get back into the points.

Racing Bulls Slow

The Racing Bulls have been uncharacteristically slow from FP2 onwards and it was the first time in the last ten races that they failed to get at least one car into Q3. Lindblad was complaining that he was having problems with braking, while Lawson blamed the lack of a tow for his failure to get into Q3, but they have just not looked good this weekend.

Williams new B spec car is an improvement and Sainz reached Q3 and ended up a season’s best 9th. However, he failed to slow down enough under a yellow flag in Q3 and picked up a 5-place penalty. He now starts fourteenth, Albon moves up to twelfth.

The team are happy with the new car, it is much lighter and that in itself is worth a big chunk of time. They were flattered somewhat by Antonelli’s crash and the two Racing Bulls being out of sorts, so it is not quite as big a step forward as I was expecting.

Disappointing Audi

The biggest disappointment was down at Audi. They turned up with a very heavily upgraded car, but while their power deficit was exposed on the long straight, the car was just slow all round and they failed to get a car out of Q1. Both were caught out by a yellow flag in Q1 but they really should have already banked a time that was good enough to make Q2. The windy conditions got some of the blame, but it looks like they may have just got a bit lost with so many changes on the car.

Cadillac have the new Ferrari power unit and Perez was going well in practice, looking like Q2 was possible, but it all went wrong. Perez didn’t get the tow he needed, Bottas got affected by the yellow flag and Perez’ final run had to be aborted after a car in front went off the track.

The Cadillac is sporting some upgrades and they look more competitive as a result. Perez is a track expert and so long as the car doesn’t break down, he might be able to go forwards for a change.

The Aston Martins were out there somewhere but ultra slow and they have taken new power units and get a million penalties.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Summary

Russell is as nailed on as it is possible to be at Baku, which isn’t very much. There have only been three winners from pole here from the nine previous races. Baku is the home of the yellow flag, and those are quickly followed by the VSC. We saw Norris getting shafted by a VSC in Madrid, and the same kind of thing can happen here.

The big difference is that you can overtake here, and such is Russell’s pace advantage, if he did drop a few places with an ill-timed VSC or safety car, he should be able to recover, so long as he has the time to do so.

Max Out Of Position

The other podium places look harder to call. The Red Bull looks a better car this weekend. Verstappen is out of position in 8th place. It is a track that has not been great for Verstappen and maybe Hadjar, the team’s number two, will do what Ricciardo and Perez have done, and beat the Mighty Max around Baku.

Ferrari have never won here, but Leclerc has been on the podium twice in the last three years. Piastri has a love hate relationship with this track. He starts third, as he did at Monza, where he finished fifth. Given that the car had looked less than stellar, he may find it hard to hold on to his place. The long straight, the longest in F1, will be a problem for him, and indeed Norris in 5th.

Race Winner

Russell is the 1.40 favourite which is fair enough, but too risky on a track like this.

Some bookmakers are offering a ‘without Russell’ market, which is a lot more interesting. Antonelli is the 2.40 favourite in that market, which makes for some big prices from those drivers starting at the sharp end of the grid.

I think Antonelli is too short. His Monza drive was very good, but it is much easier to overtake there, than it is here. He also got lucky with the VSC Monza. He could get lucky again, but he has used up a season’s worth of luck in the last two races.

Leclerc is 5.50, Piastri 6.50, Verstappen 7.00, Norris 8.00, Hamilton 9.00 and Hadjar 21.00. Unfortunately, they are win only odds, but Hadjar looks a very big price in the upgraded Red Bull.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Isack Hadjar to win without Russell @ 21.00 with Unibet

Group Bet

I have been impressed with the Haas this weekend, and it has been a while since that was the case. They had Q3 pace but not a lot of luck. Their race pace is usually decent and while the top 10 betting is just too competitive, Ocon looks backable to win Unibet’s Group 4.

He is matched with Lindblad and the two Audis. Lindblad has had a poor weekend. He had a big crash in FP2 and has struggled ever since. The Audis are probably not as bad as going out in Q1 suggests, but they have been struggling this weekend. Their lack of power is hurting them on the long straight and they are going to have a difficult task to make up a lot of places.

Ocon is looking for a new team next year, so he needs to put in some good performances to get him in the shop window.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to win Group 4 @ 2.25 with Unibet

Match Betting

Carlos Sainz is out of position thanks to his 5 place penalty. The B spec Williams is capable of a top ten, but he has made it hard for himself from 14th on the grid. However, he should be moving forwards.

Colapinto in the Alpine says he is not comfortable with his braking and that is not what you want here. It is a big ask for Sainz to close the five places between the two drivers, but the gap is not that big in terms of performance. Sainz was quicker in qualifying. The odds are sporting.

2026 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to beat Franco Colapinto @ 3.10 with Fitzdares

-JamesPunt