2026 Mexico GP Raceday Preview

James Punt was out of luck in qualifying but he has one more shot at redemption. His 2026 Mexico GP Raceday preview and tips are below.

2026 Mexico GP Raceday

Qualifying was a bit of a disaster. Leclerc failed to take his chance and starts third, while Norris blew his final Q3 lap big style. Antonelli was strangely off the pace. That left Hamilton on pole, breaking Ferrari’s 2026 duck, which was annoying. George Russell was just 0.009s off Hamilton’s time, having never been anywhere near that pace all week long.

Our only ante post bet was an each way bet Leclerc to win the race. Starting from third place, on the clean side of the track is not a bad place to start. He will get a good tow from his teammate down the very long straight and if he can keep it on the tarmac, taking the lead is a real possibility.

In the ten previous races here, five have been won by the pole sitter, three times by the driver starting third and twice from second place.

New Era

This is the first time we have raced here with these new algorithm driven power units. So far, what we have seen is a lot of reliability issues, and the feeling from the drivers that overtaking is going to be very difficult. The best spot is at the end of the long straight, but with all the power units running out of battery deployment before the end of it, the drivers expect to get stuck in position as the cars slow down.

The track has never been a good one for making up places. In 2023 Lando Norris came from 17th to finish 5th, but that was very much the exception. Usually, we get a driver making up places to finish 10th or 8th, but not the big points.

We have one fast car who is out of position on the grid, and that is Liam Lawson. He had qualified 8th and was due to start 9th after his 1 place grid penalty. However, his Q2 time was deleted for a technical infringement relating to the power unit. He now starts from last place.

He will have his work cut out to make his way back into the points, but his best chance may come down to reliability. I have a feeling that if a driver can finish the race distance, they will not be far off the top ten.

Unreliability

We have seen Audi having a lot of reliability problems, Aston Martin also. Both Cadillac’s have had power unit changes already.

The average attrition rate here is 2.80. The average attrition rate in 2026 is 3.72. The weather forecast for today is for partly cloudy skies and temperatures of 24-25 degrees. Add in the fact that there is 25% less oxygen in the air and it is hard work for the power units to do their job, and part of that job is to stay cool.

Body Work

You will have noticed that the cars are all sporting lots of louvres on their body work, opening up the cars to allow more air into the car, to help with cooling. The teams do not like having to open up the cars as it increases drag and screws with their aerodynamics, but it has to be done, or the power units would overheat. They now have to complete a race distance in very challenging conditions.

We know that the Cadillacs and Aston Martins are very unreliable at the best of times, but in very testing conditions, they may be joined by other teams having problems. Audi, with their big, slow spooling turbo may be one of them.

Audi Issues

Bortoleto sat out FP1. His seat was taken by Freddy Slater, who only managed 14 laps due to car problems. In FP2, Bortoleto managed only 12 laps having been stuck in the garage with car problems. In FP3, Bortoleto didn’t even complete a lap before his power unit failed. Qualifying was his busiest session with 19 laps.

We also saw Hamilton having to stop on track in FP2. Hadjar had a power unit issue in FP1, but after turning it off and back on again, he has been fine since.

Half of the races in 2026 have seen four or more drivers not classified. Under 18.5 not classified drivers today is 1.73 and being backed. It looks a fairly safe bet, if not great value. We have had five races that have had 5 or 6 Not Classifieds, and that looks a distinct possibility.

2026 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point under 17.5 Not Classified @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

I think we should be having something on Audi having more problems. Bortoleto is 5.00 to be Not Classified, Hulkenberg 6.00, or you can have both Audis to be classified – No, at 2.77. I.E. if one or both are not classified. I like that one.

2026 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Both Audis to be classified – No @ 3.00 with Unibet

I was tempted to back Albon to be not classified, on the basis that he was forced to retire in Singapore with overheating problems. However, I have had a bet on the total not classifieds, and hopefully he can swell the numbers.

Race Winner

We are on Leclerc e/w @ 9.00 for the race and I am happy to leave it that. A top three will show a profit and he is now into 4.33 with the e/w books.

Podium Finish

Antonelli is on the cusp of winning the World Championship, basically he just needs a point. He did admit to being a bit nervous in qualifying yesterday and he may be a bit cautious today. No harm in that.

He is 1.80 to move up a place and have his sixteenth podium finish of the year. He has only not had a podium in three races in 2026. Given that stat, he is a value bet at 1.80.

I was amazed that Russell managed to qualify second yesterday having struggled right up to Q3. I can see the two Mercedes drivers switching places, but with the World Championship narrative in the foreground, maybe he will be looking at the bigger prize.

Points Finish

Nico Hulkenberg, Mr.11th place, qualified in, yes, 11th place yesterday, but he moves up to 10th thanks to Lawson’s woes. He is just 1.73 to finish in the points. He has started in the top ten three times and twice failed to convert that into points. The Hulk is also driving an Audi, which might go pop at any time.

Piastri only managed to qualify in 13th place yesterday, and starts 12th. It was a hopeless effort, used softs or not. However, he has to be expected to make some headway, and edge his way into the points. He is a 1.20 shot to do so.

Franco Colapinto is having a poor run of form. Three DNFs from his last four races, two collisions and a transmission failure. He had been on a run of 31 consecutive finishes for Alpine before that. Karma is a bitch sometimes.

If he can avoid hitting somebody, he is in a decent position to pick up a point or two. His average qualifying position is 13th, so starting 11th is good for him. He has managed eight points finishes in 2026 and the Alpine is a pretty reliable machine. It could be a case of just not crashing or breaking down for him to score points.

2026 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Franco Colapinto to finish in the points @ 2.75 generally available

Group Betting

There is one group bet which has tempted me for a minimum, speculative bet. Unibet/Fitzdares have grouped the two Williams drivers together with Lance ‘retire the car’ Stroll and Haas’ new driver, Ryo Hirakawa. Sainz is the 1.62 favourite, Albon 3.00, Hirakawa 7.50 and Stroll 15.00.

Hirakawa is a big enough price for a punt. Yes, it is his first F1 race, but he is an accomplished race driver in other formulae and has been a reserve driver for McLaren, Alpine and now Haas. He is a three time World Endurance Car champion, a Le Mans winner and has a lot of single seater experience in Japanese Super Formula.

There is also the fact that the Williams is a pile of s**t. In the last eight races, they have had eleven finishes of 17th or worse between them. I also think that they could have cooling problems today. It might be a case of Hirakawa winning the group by default, if he can get the car home.

2026 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Ryo Hirakawa to win Group 4 @ 7.50 with Unibet, Fitzdares

-JamesPunt