Monday ITV4 Racing Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
Monday ITV4 Racing Tips From Leopardstown, Limerick and Catterick
We turned a profit again on Sunday but we went without a winner. Notebook got us off to a solid start, finishing a clear 2nd. N’Golo was given an awful ride from a tactical perspective and he is better than that. Coded Message gave Charlie Case a lovely spin and she nabbed place money for us at 18s. Our e/w NAP Gold Speed drifted to 33/1 but he too stayed on well to grab 4th. Unfortunately Speak Easy didn’t get home and The King’s Writ paid the price for chasing a suicidal pace. Thankfully racing goes ahead at Leopardstown, Limerick and Catterick tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos Monday ITV4 Racing Tips below…
1.15 Leopardstown: Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
A top quality 3 mile Grade 1 hurdle kicks off the live action from Leopardstown on Monday. Nine stayers will go to post and the betting suggests it is between three of them. Sire Du Berlais is edging favouritism at 2/1 for Elliott, Walsh and JP. Last year’s Pertemps winner off 152 scored on his sole start this term in a Navan Grade 2 (20f sft/hvy). However, it wasn’t the best of races and the 8yo will find today’s examination a lot more difficult. 2/1 looks pretty skinny.
Fury Road is next best at 3/1 after his solid reappearance win at Punchestown (21f hvy). He beat Dewcup by 3.5L in that Grade 2 and unlike his main market rival, he already has form at the top table in the book. The son of Stowaway was only a length behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in March (24f sft). The return to this distance is firmly in his favour. He is still only a 6yo and he could have more scope for improvement than Sire Du Berlais.
Pump Looks Overpriced
At odds of 4/1 Ronald Pump looks potentially overpriced. Trained by Matthew Smith, this 7yo ran Honeysuckle mightily close last time out at Fairyhouse. It was some effort considering it was an inadequate trip (20f). He was also bang in contention when falling at the last in the Navan race that Sire Du Berlais won. His 2nd in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham was another stellar effort and his only previous run at Leopardstown was an excellent one.
The Storyteller is a versatile and talented sort. He reverts to hurdles after his superb Champion Chase win at Down Royal in October. However, the big worry for his supporters is his record at Leopardstown. He was well beat in his 3 chase starts at the track and he was 5L behind Ronald Pump, getting 3lb, in a handicap hurdle here last Xmas.
Trip Concerns For Dynamite
French Dynamite has half a length to find with Sire Du Berlais on their meeting at Navan. However, that was over 20f and the jury is out as to whether 3 miles will suit. He weakened on his sole rules start at beyond 20f and the percentage call is to oppose. Flooring Porter takes a huge step up in class. While he has been ultra progressive in handicaps, this is a different kettle of fish altogether.
The one that makes most appeal at bigger odds is Bacardys for Willie and Patrick Mullins. Now a 9yo, he shaped nicely behind Honeysuckle and Ronald Pump last time at Fairyhouse. He was 3rd in the Stayers’ Hurdle in March, 3L behind Ronald Pump. Yes, he has yet to win at 3 miles but his best form has come at the distance. I think Ronald Pump is the most likely winner but at odds of 20/1 Bacardys could easily nick a place.
Monday ITV4 Racing Tips: Bacardys e/w @ 20/1
1.30 Catterick: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
It is safe to say that this is one of the weaker events that we’ll see on ITV4 over the Xmas period. We were on Russian Doyen last time when he fell at Newbury. However, the ground is a lot softer today and that is not in his favour. He might get away with it over today’s 15.5f trip but he doesn’t appeal at the current prices. One horse that looks feasibly handicapped and who likes this track is Ilaya. Trained by Micky Hammond, this 6yo mare was beat a short head off 120 on her last visit to Catterick.
The ground was soft that day, just like it is today. Both of Ilaya’s wins have come on soft. Her last victory came at Newcastle back in January off a mark of 113. She is 3lb higher today but with Becky Smith’s claim she is effectively racing off the same rating. Yes, she needs to bounce back from a trio of below par efforts this season but she took three runs to hit top form last season. At odds of 14/1, Ilaya is the each way selection in a trappy race.
Catterick Monday Tip: Ilaya e/w @ 14/1
1.50 Leopardstown: Christmas Handicap Hurdle (0-116)
This is another low grade handicap and a maximum field of 20 will go to post. The one I am interested in at a decent e/w price is Stucker Hill. This 8yo daughter of Milan is trained by Billy Lanigan and Danny Mullins rides. She is a former two time hurdle winner, over 21f at Tramore and 22f at Punchestown. Those wins came on heavy and soft ground respectively. She has plenty of placed form at 20f on soft ground in the book too.
This mare is in off a mark of 107 today, just 4lb higher than the rating she won off at Tramore. She ran a cracker behind Dinard Rose on her penultimate start, beat 5L in 2nd off 106 at Thurles (20f sft). She was ridden up with the pace that day and last time, ridden more patiently, she wasn’t quite as good. I am hoping that Danny Mullins is more positive on her today and if he is, she could sneak into the money at odds of 16/1.
Monday ITV4 Racing Tips: Stucker Hill e/w @ 16/1 NB (6 places Skybet)
Monday ITV4 Racing Tips – 2.25 Leopardstown: Savills Chase (Grade 1)
What a renewal of the Savills Chase this is. With 14 runners declared it will be the biggest field in recent years and it is packed full of quality horses. The bookies make Minella Indo the favourite at around 5/2. The fact that connections have opted to swerve the race with last season’s short head runner up Monalee indicates that they must be extremely sweet on this son of Beat Hollow. He found just Champ too good at Cheltenham back in March and he has won authoritatively on both starts this season. Ground on the soft side is perfect for him and he looks like the one to beat.
However, he will face some stern competition from some of his more seasoned rivals. Last year’s winner Delta Work loves it at Leopardstown and yielding to soft ground suits him perfectly. Yes, he was mildly disappointing in the Gold Cup but his comeback run at Down Royal was promising. He ran in the same race last year and was beat 16L before turning up and winning this. He was only beat 6L in it this year and he should be at peak fitness as he bids to defend his crown.
Track Concerns For Percy
Denis O’Regan gets a chance aboard Presenting Percy as he bids to build on his last time out win when he beat Kemboy. That will have done wonders for his confidence as it had been a long time between drinks for the son of Presenting. All roads lead to Cheltenham for this fella and Leopardstown is not his favourite track. Connections will be hoping for a clear, safe round and if he wins it will be a bonus. His poor course record is off-putting though and he is best watched today.
Allaho is one of three 6yos in this and he has very little to find with Minella Indo on their meetings at Cheltenham (and Punchestown). He ran a nice race behind Easy Game here over 21f on his comeback last season but this year he has had a prep run. Okay, he was beat 34L behind Min but heavy ground didn’t suit. The return to better ground will suit and if he gets back to the form of his Cheltenham 3rd he could easily play a part at the business end.
Others To Consider
6yos have an outstanding recent record in the Savills Chase. 4 of the last 5 winners have come from that age bracket so both A Plus Tard and Easy Game are worth mentioning. A Plus Tard was brilliant when beating Chacun Pour Soi over 17f at this meeting a year ago. However, his sole run at 3 miles saw him finish 14L behind Delta Work and I am not sure about this trip for him. His pedigree doesn’t scream stamina and he looks short enough at 10/1.
Given that Easy Game was over a length in front of Allaho here last year surely he is overpriced at 25/1. He stayed on strongly in that 21f heat and while he didn’t produce his best at Cheltenham over 24f, he looks well worth another shot at the trip. The more the ground dries out the better it will suit him and he could give Danny Mullins a good spin.
Samcro is as short as 10/1 but I can’t have him over this trip. Yes, he won his point to point at 3 miles but he was all out to hold on over 20f at Cheltenham from Melon. I would fancy Melon to reverse that form over this distance but I am not sure either has the class to challenge for major honours today. Tornado Flyer finished well ahead of Melon in the fog last time at Punchestown but he is probably at his best on bottomless ground.
Conclusion
As you can see, a case can be made for lots of these. I haven’t even mentioned my tip for last year’s race Jett who is a huge price again. I can see him outrunning his odds but this is a way hotter renewal. At the prices, I am going to take a chance on Easy Game for small stakes. Yes, he disappointed over this distance at Cheltenham but he is still young and I liked how he finished off his race behind Battleoverdoyen last time. His 7L defeat of The Storyteller in October looks alright now after his Down Royal win and with 5 places on offer, Easy Game is the e/w pick at 25/1.
Monday ITV4 Racing Tips: Easy Game e/w @ 25/1 (5 Places)
2.45 Limerick: Handicap Chase (Grade B)
A field of 16 chasers will fight it out for the spoils in this 19.5f handicap. Plenty of these are effective over further but it will require a fair bit of stamina to get home in this ground. As ever, all of the JP McManus runners are entitled to respect at his local track but I think that Westerner Point is capable of making his presence felt at a track he loves. This 11yo son of Westerner has had two runs over C&D, both in this race, and he won the two of them.
In 2016 he triumphed off a mark of 123 and in 2018 he won off 133. Those wins came on soft and heavy and he ran another cracker on soft in the Munster National over 3 miles here in October off 145. He is in off the same rating today and he will surely bounce back from a poor run over hurdles at Navan last time out. Eoghan O’Grady’s charge is just 5lb above his highest winning rating and with trip, track and ground to suit he looks well worth backing each way at 16/1.
