Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips by Dave Stevos
Leopardstown, Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips
The big race at Chepstow on Sunday is the Welsh Grand National. You can check out our preview and free tip here. Boxing Day went okay for us. Busselton ran a blinder at Leopardstown, nicking place money at 18s. William H Bonney and Springtown Lake didn’t stay and need to drop in trip. Golan Fortune ran a mighty race and just got done for a place late on. Darver Star was given a poor ride but Silver Streak dashed to victory for us at 13/2. Waiting Patiently also landed place money for us at 25s in the King George. The action comes thick and fast from Ireland and the UK tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos Leopardstown, Kempton and Chepstow Sunday tips below…
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday-1.05: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A very trappy 7 runner handicap chase kicks off the live action on ITV4. The ground is heavy at Chepstow and that will suit some in this race a lot more than others. The one I like off a nice low racing weight is My Way for Frost and Nicholls. This horse’s sole win so far came on good ground but that was decidedly modest form. He has produced the two best efforts of his career on heavy and this will be his first run in these conditions since his fine 2nd off 126 at Ascot (19f hvy) this time last year.
His final French start came on heavy ground too at Auteuil and he ran a blinder in a Grade 3 chase to finish 5L behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Whetstone. I think today’s trip is perfect for him on this type of ground and he is just 3lb higher than he was at Ascot. Nicholls and Frost teamed up with Frodon brilliantly in the King George and they could be set for more success at Chepstow. At odds of 13/2 My Way is the each way selection.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: My Way e/w @ 13/2 (3 places Powers)
1.10 Leopardstown: Paddy Power Chase (Grade 1)
The first Grade 1 race of the day at Leopardstown is this 17f chase. There is rain forecast overnight at the Dublin track so underfoot conditions are likely to deteriorate from yielding. That will suit the short priced favourite Chacun Pour Soi. He was impressive on his seasonal return at Cork (16f sft/hvy) and granted natural improvement from that reappearance he should be extremely hard to beat. He only faces five rivals and if the ground turns softer then Notebook could be his main threat.
Henry De Bromhead’s 7yo son of Samum scored decisively on soft/heavy at Naas last time. It was a rock solid performance and he earned a rating of 163 for that run. That still leaves him with 9lb to find with Chacun Pour Soi but he is still a young horse and there could yet be more improvement to come from him. He is 2/2 at Leopardstown and he has only tasted defeat once from 6 chase starts. I think 5/1 looks pretty generous and given that his stable mate Put The Kettle on would prefer a sounder surface, Notebook looks well worth backing e/w.
Leopardstown Sunday Tips: Notebook e/w @ 5/1
1.20 Kempton: Wayward Lad Chase (Grade 2)
A bitterly disappointing turnout for this Grade 2 Novices’ Chase with just 4 runners. It revolves around the odds on fav Shishkin. This horse won the Supreme in thrilling fashion last season and he was foot perfect on his chasing debut at this track last time (18f gd). Dropping back to 2 miles won’t pose any problems for this fella and with Gumball in the field it should be a truly run contest. The Hobbs horse should make sure this is not a procession but he will need to find 8 or 9 pounds improvement to trouble Shishkin. This is not a betting race for me and I’ll be sitting it out.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: No Bet
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday – 1.40: Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
9 young hurdlers will line up at the start for this 2 mile Grade 1 heat. The one I like at a nice enough e/w price is Honneur D’Ajonc for the Williams team. This horse has had just one career start and that came on soft at Exeter. He ran a very nice race to finish 2nd, beat 5.5L by Monmiral. That horse has gone on to frank that form in no uncertain terms by hacking up in a Grade 2 at Doncaster.
The question is whether this horse will handle heavy and I think he’ll relish it if his pedigree is anything to go by. His dam won on heavy ground in France and the best of his half siblings appreciated testing conditions too. Honneur D’Ajonc was also declared at Kempton today but connections will likely run him where the ground is softest. If he can build on his excellent debut effort this fella could reward e/w support at odds of 12/1.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: Honneur D’Ajonc e/w @ 12/1
1.45 Leopardstown: Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Ten novices will battle it out for glory in this 2 mile Grade 1 hurdle. Ballyadam is shading favouritism after his Grade 1 win at Fairyhouse last time (16f sft). That was an impressive performance but I think the horse that finished 3rd in that race could be worth backing each way today. N’Golo has 2L to find with Ballyadam and if the Royal Bond was a furlong further he would have won it. He stayed on like a train in the final 100 yards and it was a really eye-catching effort.
If the forecast rain arrives it will suit Willie Mullins’ charge. He won his Grade 3 at Naas on soft/heavy and it was soft last time at Fairyhouse. This horse won a 14f maiden on the flat in France so he clearly has plenty of stamina. The faster they go early, the more it will suit him but if it is a muddling early pace hopefully David Mullins is positive on him and brings his staying power into play. When you consider how little he has to find with Ballyadam 14/1 looks very big. An each way bet on N’Golo is advised.
Leopardstown Sunday Tips: N’Golo e/w @ 14/1
Kempton and Chepstow SUnday-1.55: Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
With rain forecast overnight it could be worth taking a punt on last year’s winner of this race Coded Message. Trained by Ben Case, who also runs Midnightreflection at a shorter price, this mare’s season has yet to really get started. She ran in a 22f chase on her seasonal return and she never landed a blow. She unseated when looking the most likely winner at the same track upped to 24f on her next outing and then an early mistake cost her any chance when pulled up last time out at Taunton.
Unsurprisingly, connections have decided to revert to hurdling after those two mishaps. She returns to this discipline rated 12lb higher than she was when winning in 2019. However, Charlie Case’s 7lb claim is a big help and off an effective mark of 125 she should be competitive. Charlie Case has had 9 rides for Ben, winning on 2 of them and finishing in the first four on another 3. The more rain that falls the better for this mare and she will be hoping to make it 2/2 at Kempton. With 4 places on offer from Skybet, Coded Message is the each way selection.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: Coded Message e/w @ 18/1 (4 places Skybet)
2.15 Chepstow: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The eye is immediately drawn to Clyne after he ran a blinder for us last week. However, he had a really tough race that day and the handicapper nudged him back up a couple of pounds. He will enjoy the ground though and he ran a nice race on his only previous visit to Chepstow. However, I am going to instead take a chance on another Evan Williams trained horse, former C&D winner Virginia Chick.
Isabel Williams rides this 8yo son of Nickname who scored at this meeting back in 2018. That was his second win here, his first coming over a trip of 19f. He is in off a rating of 122 today, 1lb lower than for his win in 2018. He is at home on soft or heavy ground and thanks to Clyne’s presence at the top of the handicap and his jockey’s claim, Virginia Chick will be carrying just 9st 13lbs. It is disappointing that only 2 places are on offer but even so, I think Virginia Chick is capable of running a massive race at odds of 12/1.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: Virginia Chick e/w @ 12/1 NB
2.20 Leopardstown: Handicap Hurdle (0-145)
The one I like dropped back in distance in this competitive handicap hurdle is Gold Speed. Trained by the ultra-shrewd Adrian Murray, Sean Flanagan takes the ride. He is 1/2 aboard the son of Gold Well and he is Murray’s go-to jockey these days. This 7yo is lightly raced and he is unexposed in handicaps at 2 miles. He scored by a nose off 116 at Punchestown over 20f two runs back, barely holding on after making all. This horse has won on good and soft ground so there are zero worries regarding underfoot conditions.
His bumper win came on good and then he followed up by winning a 2 mile maiden hurdle at Galway on soft. The form of his Punchestown win has worked out well. He was conceding 9lb to the 3rd Streets of Doyen and he has been a revelation ever since. The 2nd and 4th from that race both ran well subsequently too, so on the face of it a 7lb hike wasn’t too steep. His run last time out was too bad to be true and he is worth giving another chance to now dropped back to 2 miles. Adrian Murray had a winner at this meeting a few years back with Cass Bligh and hopefully he has another one today. At odds of 22/1, Gold Speed is the each way NAP of the day.
Leopardstown Sunday Tips: Gold Speed e/w @ 22/1 NAP (5 Places)
2.30 Kempton: Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2)
Altior finally makes his return to action in this 2 mile Grade 1. Nicky Henderson has come in for plenty of abuse from armchair trainers over his decision not to run in the Tingle Creek. I think he was 100% right to swerve the race if he wasn’t happy with the ground. This horse’s whole season revolves around the Champion Chase in March. If he turns up in tip-top shape and wins that race then all of this will be forgotten.
It was a stupid decision to try him over further than 2 miles last season as he is arguably one of the best 2 mile chasers we have seen. Henderson said that run bottomed him out and he wasn’t himself for a long time afterwards. He won this race in 2018 and it looks an ideal starting point for him this year. Sceau Royal could be the one to chase him home but with only 2 places on offer this is a race to sit back, watch and enjoy. No bet, but I really hope that Altior hacks up.
Kempton and Chepstow Sunday Tips: No Bet
2.55 Leopardstown: Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Grade B)
A maximum field of 22 chasers will line up at the start in this 3 mile handicap chase. The winner takes home over 80k so as you can imagine, it will be very well contested. JP McManus has a fine record with his runners in this and I think Speak Easy could improve on his first handicap chase start off 139. This horse was frustrating last season, failing to win in three chase starts. He ran okay behind Ronald Pump when 3rd at Fairyhouse on his chasing debut (21f hvy). Joseph O’Brien’s charge then fell in a Grade 3 at Punchestown when booked for 2nd. He then finished 19L behind Captain Cj at Navan (24f hvy) in a Grade 2 novice chase.
Speak Easy hasn’t really pulled up any trees on his two runs this term either. He could only manage 4th on his return at Galway (22f sft) and he was beat 39L over 20f last time at Gowran (20f hvy). His handicap mark is now down to 139 as a result of those two efforts and he could be well treated off that rating on his form behind Ronald Pump. The booking of Denis O’Regan is eye-catching (5 wins/9 top 4s from 24 rides for McManus) and I am hoping that his first two runs this season will have left him spot on fitness wise for a crack at this valuable pot. At odds of 22/1 Speak Easy is a speculative each way pick in a wide open race.
Leopardstown Sunday Tips: Speak Easy e/w @ 22/1 (6 Places)
3.05 Kempton: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
With rain showers forecast The King’s Writ could go well in this 3 mile handicap chase. Trained by Kayley Woollacott this 9yo son of Brian Boru appreciates a bit of cut in the ground. His three rules wins have come on heavy and soft and he won his P2P on good to soft. He is in off a mark of 137 today, 13lb higher than the rating he last won off at Exeter. However, he has run well off his current rating as recently as January in 2020 when he was beat just 2L by Worthy Farm at Wincanton (25f sft).
He had a wind op after his poor Cheltenham festival effort and he shaped nicely on his comeback run three weeks ago at Chepstow over an inadequate trip (19.5f hvy). The step back up to 3 miles is in his favour today and Joshua Newman takes off a handy 7lb. He has led on his last few starts but he is versatile enough tactically so he doesn’t need to go from the front and that is a plus as there are a few horses in this that like to make the running. Any more rain would further boost his chances and at 14/1, The King’s Writ looks a solid e/w bet.
