Arc De Triomphe Stats That Matter

A total of 27 horses remain in the running for this year’s Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe. Thankfully, our each way ante-post selection is among those left standing at this stage. Dave Stevos is going to use stats to narrow the field of this year’s race, just like he did for the championship races at Cheltenham. Hopefully we can find the winner, check out the Arc de Triomphe stats that matter below.

Arc De Triomphe Stats: Age

Some say that age is just a number, but that’s not the case where the Arc is concerned. This is a young horse’s race and since 1988, every winner bar two were aged either 3yo or 4yo. Marienbard in 2002 and Waldgeist, who we were on, in 2019 are the only exceptions, winning at the age of five. So, who misses out due to this statistic?

The two 7yos, Verry Elleegant and the Japanese raider Stay Foolish are both discounted. Broome, last year’s hero Torquator Tasso and Mishriff are all 5yos so the stats suggest they are up against it. Others to come a cropper at this point include Mare Australis, Deep Bond and perhaps the biggest name to be cut is the second favourite, Alpinista.

Cut: Verry Elleegant; Stay Foolish; Grand Glory; Broome; Torquator Tasso; Thunder Kiss; Mishriff; Mare Australis; Deep Bond; Alpinista.

Course and Recent Form

Of the last dozen winners, seven had at least one previous run around Longchamp. Six of them had won. It isn’t as emphatic a statistic as the last one, but over 58% is still pretty notable. Another interesting stat is that of the last 12 Arc winners, 11 of them had a run within 38 days of the race. That suggests that race sharpness is important. So, now we will cut all horses who have been out of action for over 38 days and also those without Longchamp form in the book.

Titleholder hasn’t run for 98 days and he has never run at Longchamp so he is gone. Mostahdaf does have recent form but he has never raced outside the UK so it is bye bye to him. Mac Swiney will be happy with the forecast rain but he’s been off the track for 99 days so he is eliminated. The other high profile victims of these stats are Al Hakeem, Westover and the market leader Luxembourg (no course form).

Cut: Titleholder; Mostahdaf; Mac Swiney; Westover; Luxembourg; Al Hakeem; Le Destrier.

Staying Power

Given the usual ground conditions at Paris-Longchamp, you need a horse that stays every inch of 12f. It takes a bit of getting, especially when it comes up very soft and it looks like it is going to be that type of ground on Sunday. Since 2008, every single winner had at least one previous win at 12f. Interestingly, the favourite Luxembourg would have been counted out at this stage too.

Of the eleven horses remaining, last year’s 5th Sealiway has never won beyond 10f. He’s gone, as is West Wind Blows for the Crisfords. There is also another very fancied horse that doesn’t make the final cut – 7/1 shot Vadeni. He has never even raced over 12f, let alone won over the trip. La Parisienne is quietly fancied to go well by some decent judges, but she is gone at this point too. Another four have bitten the dust, seven advance to the final cut.

Cut: Sealiway; West Wind Blows; Vadeni; La Parisienne.

Arc De Triomphe Stats: Final Cut

A couple of horses have made it into the last seven that will realistically find it hard to win. Alenquer is a 100/1 shot and that probably represents his chance. True Testament hails from a strong stable but he needs to improve hugely on what he has achieved to date. I’m going to discount those two and we’ll focus on the final five.

The shortest priced survivor is Adayar and he looks to hold outstanding claims. It looks like Charlie Appleby has laid him out for the race, he ran huge in it last season as a 3yo and he looked as good as ever on his comeback at Doncaster. Discount him at your peril. Onesto made Luxembourg work hard over 10f at Leopardstown last time and he won a G1 over this C&D previously. Fabrice Chappet’s charge has definite place claims at least at 12/1.

Big Prices

The other three remaining horses are all big prices. Do Deuce flies the flag for Japan but very soft ground would be a big concern. His last two G1 wins came on good to firm and he didn’t look to be overly in love with softer conditions here when beat nearly 4L in a G2. 50/1 shot Mendocino has a more appealing profile. He probably wouldn’t want it bottomless but he beat last year’s winner Torquator Tasso in Germany last time out and he was only 0.75L behind Alpinista last November.

Bubble Gift is even bigger at 66/1. He ran really well in this race last year, staying on strongly having missed the kick. He went into my notebook when getting to within 1.5L of Alpinista at Saint-Cloud in July and he had a lovely prep run after a break when 2nd over this C&D (Verry Elleegant in 3rd). The son of Nathaniel (sire of Arc winner Enable) is a dual G2 C&D winner, Delzangles has undoubtedly trained him for a repeat bid and he could stay on late for place money. Adayar does look the most likely winner though and he gets the vote.

Arc De Triomphe Stats: Final Verdict

1. Adayar @ 7/1
2. Onesto @ 12/1
3. Bubble Gift @ 66/1
4. Mendocino @ 50/1
5. Do Deuce @ 33/1

-DaveStevos