Ascot and York Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ascot and York Saturday Tips
It was a while in coming but finally we landed a couple of winners last week. Stonific was given a brilliant ride by Tom Scudamore to score at 40/1. Happy Romance drifted too but that didn’t bother her and she won for us too at 11/1. We had gone close with a few big priced horses in recent weeks so it was nice to get one on the board. Hopefully we can keep the momentum going tomorrow, check out our Ascot and York Saturday tips below.
1.50 Ascot – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3)
After a week of scorching heat, the weather is forecast to change dramatically on Friday night. Up to 13mm of rain is due before racing at Ascot and if it falls, there will be no good to firm around. I don’t think it will be bottomless but there is definitely going to be a bit of an ease. The vast majority of these have yet to race on slower than good so there is going to be plenty of guesswork involved if it does rain. However, one filly who has nothing to fear if conditions deteriorate is Miss Calculation.
Trained by Rebecca Menzies, this filly scored on her debut at 22/1 at Doncaster (6f hvy). She was out the back early under Ben Robinson but she responded to his urgings 2f out. Once she drew level with the fav he gave her one tap of the whip and she quickened clear. Miss Calculation still looked very green in the final furlong so there should be plenty more to come from her. Her pedigree indicates that good to soft or soft ground should be fine and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa suggests that connections are expecting a decent run. At odds of 22/1, Miss Calculation is worth taking a chance on each way.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: Miss Calculation e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
2.05 York – Jump Jockeys Handicap (Class 2)
Unlike at Ascot, there is no rain forecast for York so conditions will be rattling quick. The first race of the day is a 5f handicap and all horses will be ridden by NH jockeys. The one I’ll be taking a chance on here is Eeh Bah Gum for Tim Easterby and Jamie Hamilton. This 6yo has been slipping down the weights and he has shown glimmers of promise on three of his last four runs. A former C&D fast ground winner off 83, he is in today off a rating of just 67.
That win came almost three years ago and he hasn’t scored since. However, he has run a number of crackers in defeat, especially at this course. On his last visit, in May 2019, he was beat just 4L off 88. His overall form figures over C&D on good or quicker read 148. Jamie Hamilton has ridden 10 winners for Easterby over jumps so presumably he has had a spin on this fella at home. Eeh Bah Gum is 1lb wrong at the weights admittedly. However, he has yet to run a bad race when he has had his ground over today’s C&D and he was beat less than a length off 70 just three runs back. At odds of 18/1, he is the each way pick.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: Eeh Bah Gum e/w @ 18/1 NB (4 places)
2.25 Ascot – Porsche Handicap (Class 2)
Just the seven go to post for this mile handicap for 3yos only. It isn’t the easiest race to read but Mystery Smiles could go well at a price on his first handicap start. This son of Mehmas has been highly tried and he was last sighted finishing down the field in the 2000 Guineas. Previous to that he was a solid 3rd in a G3 at Newmarket and on that run, he could be dangerous off 102 with William Carver’s claim meaning he is effectively in off 97.
Already a winner on good to soft, he won’t mind a drop of rain and his trainer continues in excellent form. Andrew Balding has had three winners in the last few days and William Carver is 16/104 for him with a further 44 frame finishes. Interestingly, Carver has yet to win from 7 rides for King Power but he has finished in the first three on 5 of those rides. Retained jockey Silvestre de Sousa prefers Fantastic Fox but Mystery Smiles has better form in the book. I think he is worth chancing each way at around 16/1 with 3 places on offer from W Hill.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: Mystery Smiles e/w @ 16/1 (3 places Hills)
2.40 York – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2)
The one I like in this 6f heat is Venturous for David Barron and Connor Beasley. This 8yo stable stalwart has been running well and shaping as though a return to the winner’s enclosure is close. He had a real purple patch starting at Doncaster last October when he won off 83 (5f hvy). The son of Raven’s Pass then went on to win 4 of his next 6 starts at Newcastle and Wolves over 5f and 6f. His all-weather mark rose from 91 to 105 (now 104) but he is rated 9lbs lower on grass.
Last time out he ran a blinder at Newcastle (6f), beat just under 2L off 104. On his penultimate run here over 5f (gd) he was taken off his feet early on but 2f out he came back onto the bridle. It looked like Beasley had loads of horse under him but his decision to challenge widest of all backfired. As he switched, the main protagonists quickened up the middle and the race was gone. In the end Venturous had to settle for 6th, less than 3L behind the winner. The step up to 6f should enable him to travel more sweetly and if he can repeat the form of his last run off 2lb lower, he won’t be far away at odds of 20/1.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: Venturous e/w @ 20/1 (5 Places)
3.00 Ascot – International Stakes Handicap (Class 2)
A field of 22 will line up in the stalls for this 7f heritage handicap. If conditions turn very testing, our old friend Ropey Guest could run a big race. However, the ground probably won’t be that bad and instead I am going to keep the faith in Lord Rapscallion. This son of Alhebayeb has been knocking on the door in recent runs. We were on last time out in the Bunbury Cup when he ran a blinder to nab 3rd at 33/1. That effort came off 93 and she races off the same rating today. She has almost 5L to find with the winner Motakhayyel, which won’t be easy. But, if there is a little bit of juice in the ground I think this fella can get a lot closer.
His last two runs on good to firm have been solid but his best Irish form came on good/yielding. He clearly handles good to firm but he could be 7 or 8lbs better on a slightly kinder surface. It was only last September when he was narrowly beaten off 101 in a valuable handicap at Leopardstown on good. A repeat of that form would see him go very close here. With 7 places on offer from William Hill, Lord Rapscallion is the each way selection. Given how he drifted last time, it might be worth waiting until tomorrow to back him to ensure you get best odds guaranteed.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: Lord Rapscallion e/w @ 16/1 NAP (7 places W Hill)
3.15 York – York Stakes (Group 2)
Just the five are due to go to post for this Group 2 and Mohaafeth is the clear favourite for Haggas and Crowley. This 3yo failed to win last season but he showed clear potential behind Belloccio at Sandown. He scored on his comeback at Lingfield in an 8f Novice and since then he has won three in a row. A 10f handicap at Newmarket off 85 was followed by a Listed win over the same C&D. Next up was a 10f G3 at Ascot and he made short work of his 8 rivals. Now he takes another step up the ladder and with conditions to suit, he looks sure to go well.
Armory is next best in the betting for Coolmore. He is a 4yo so he carries a lot more weight than his main market rival. However, he is dropping in class and on his last start at G2 level he hosed up at Chester. Juan Elcano is another 4yo and he impressed last time at York. He isn’t usually the most consistent of horses though and he is no banker to back that up. Bangkok looks to be held by Armory on their Chester meeting and I think the one horse that may outrun his odds is Montatham. However, with just 2 places on offer this is a race I am happy to just watch. No bet.
Ascot and York Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.35 Ascot – King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1)
The big one on Saturday is this 12f G1 and a field of 6 are due to go to post. Wonderful Tonight has been left in but unless there is a lot more rain than is actually forecast, she is an unlikely runner. Love heads the market for O’Brien and Moore after her 10f G1 win here. The 4yo daughter of Galileo has won at the highest level on 5 of her last 6 starts and she fended off the late challenge of the talented Audarya last time. She has to concede weight to some talented 3yos though and this will be a proper test of her credentials.
Epsom Derby winner Adayar is back in action for the first time since and he will be happy to see rain forecast. His best form has come on soft/good to soft so conditions should be ideal for him. However, the fact he hasn’t run since winning at Epsom is a slight worry and I am going to keep the faith in Lone Eagle. We were on him for his agonising Curragh defeat when he went down by a neck to Hurricane Lane. The winner and the 3rd franked that form by finishing 1-2 in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp.
He’ll have zero issues if the rain comes and he’ll be grand on good ground too. On a line through Hurricane Lane, Adayar holds him but I don’t think we have seen the best of this horse yet. Frankie is back on board again and I don’t think he’ll make his move as early today. Hopefully he can hang onto him a bit longer and deliver him with a winning challenge in the final furlong. At odds of 13/2, Lone Eagle is the each way selection.
