Australian GP 2020 Preview and Tips by James Punt

The opening Grand Prix of the season is scheduled to go ahead this weekend in Australia. News that some crew members have tested positive for COVID-19 has cast doubt on the race but for now, it has the green light. James Punt has run the rule over the field and you can check out his Australian GP 2020 preview and tips below…

Australian GP 2020 Preview

The first race of the season has that first day back at school feel. Only this year, some of the kids are coming in sick and the school might have to close down. Yes, inevitably, three Formula 1 team members have been sent into isolation after arriving in Melbourne with what might be Corona virus.

The race will go ahead, its too late to stop the Juggernaut now. With the spectators already banned from next weekends Bahrain GP, will the Bahrain authorities now just say the risk of letting in the 400 strong army of people needed to run the race and televise it etc. just be too big a risk? I suggest we enjoy this race, as we might not be seeing too many more this season. China is already off and now Vietnam is looking more precarious. The country as cancelled visa free travel for European visitors.

As always with the first race of the season, this is when the speculation stops and reality kicks in. Time to drop the trousers and show what you’ve got.

Mercedes The Team To Beat

It is safe to assume that Mercedes will be the team to beat. Lewis Hamilton has been on pole here for the last six years. Every one of this turbo-hybrid era. Ironically, it hasn’t been one of Hamilton’s best tracks as he has won just two from his fourteen starts. He has just the one win for Mercedes and has finished runner up for the last four years. He starts as the 2.20 favourite which looks short given that track record.

Bottas won here last year and he will hope to get off to another good start. But, he will have to hope that Hamilton struggles again, and that Red Bull and Ferrari are a little off the pace. His record sees one win and a third place for Mercedes along with eighth in 2018. He did set Mercedes best times in testing and the overall best two times over both tests. So, he shouldn’t be dismissed.

Red Bull have announced that they will protest Mercedes dual axis steering system if it is used in Melbourne as they believe it to be illegal. It is not unusual for there to be protests at the opening race of the season. The FIA may have given Mercedes their blessing to go ahead with the design and development of the system. However, it is up to the race stewards to actually make a ruling on its legality. The stewards are appointed by the FIA so you can guess the likely outcome of any protest.

Red Bull Could be Next Best

Who will be Mercedes biggest threat? Red Bull looked to be the most likely candidates in testing. No doubt they will have some upgrades for the opening race, as will most teams. They do not have a great record in Melbourne, certainly not in the turbo-hybrid era. Verstappen’s 3rd place last year was their best result. Their only double points finish was in 2018. With Honda giving them more grunt this year, they should be more competitive on what is quite a fast circuit. It isn’t an out and out power sensitive circuit however. Many of the 16 corners are 90 degree turns which reward good stability under braking, a strong front wheel turn in and good traction out of the corner. Red Bull have tended to be better on tracks that reward efficient aero performance.

Verstappen didn’t show us his true pace in the final day of testing as he ran on the C4 soft tyre, rather than the faster C5 which the other teams were on. He also backed off as he approached the finish line. Had he not done so and been on the softer tyre he would have been fastest, but maybe not as quick as Bottas was in the first test.

Albon To Make Australian Debut

Red Bulls number two driver, Alex Albon, will be making his Australian debut for Red Bull. This time last year he was a Toro Rosso driver and finished 14th. Albon ended the 2019 season in the Red Bull and was denied a podium finish, what would have been his first, when Hamilton knocked him off the track in the dying laps.

Is he ready to make the step up to be a contender for podiums this year? If the car is good enough, but he isn’t in Verstappen’s league so he would need some good fortune. His odds of 51.00 are not unattractive with most bookmakers offering three places for each way betting.

Ferrari Under The Spotlight

Ferrari are again the source of much speculation. Their test form left most people a little confused. Some believe that they are just hiding their true pace. The team themselves say they were hiding nothing, and they are indeed behind Mercedes and Red Bull. There is no doubt that they have been hurt by the FIA calling them out over their power units.

The FIA are saying that while it is too complicated to be absolutely certain that Ferrari were cheating in 2019, they are pretty sure they were. The fact that both parties have agreed a ‘settlement’ means that Ferrari didn’t want to risk it going to a court case and them being found guilty in open view.

They have changed the design concept away from a low downforce, high straight-line speed one, to a higher downforce car with lower straight-line performance. The aim was to address their poor cornering performance which hurt them last year. The result is that they do have a car that is better in corners. However, they are suffering on the straights. My guess is that they designed the car with last years power unit performance in mind. That has now been curtailed by the FIA clamping down on how Ferrari operate their power units.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: Straights Could Count Against Ferrari

The Albert Park track doesn’t have too many long straights but there are enough to hurt them. It’s a question of whether the 16 corners can make up for that. I have my doubts. So many of the corners here are more about braking and traction rather than pure downforce.

Ferrari have won two of the last three races here. But, it looks like they are coming here on the back foot somewhat. Vettel has gone well in Melbourne in the past with two wins and two third places in the turbo-hybrid era. Leclerc was 5th on debut last year.

It still seems unlikely that the midfield teams will have done enough to realistically challenge for a podium, not on this track anyway. You must go back to 2014 for the last time any team outside of Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull had a podium finish.

One of Mercedes targets for this year’s car was to improve rear end stability and with aero and suspension modifications, they have done just that according to Valtteri Bottas. That will help their performance on this track, and it wasn’t to bad to start with.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: No Value In Hamilton

I don’t rate Hamilton’s odds as being good value on a circuit on which he has failed to capitalise on pole position in recent years. One win from six pole starts isn’t great at all. Mercedes still look to have the best car and Bottas makes more appeal @ 5.00. He won from second place on the grid last year and he will start the season fresh and optimistic, not yet ground down by Hamilton’s relentless pressure.

For an outsider Alex Albon make sense at big odds. He was only settling in at Red Bull last season. He had just nine races for them in 2019 but he was getting on with the job and started on the third row of the grid in the last six races of 2019. If Ferrari are indeed behind Red Bull, then his shot at a podium suddenly looks much better and there is enough from testing to suggest that may be the case.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to win @ 5.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Australian GP 2020 Preview: 1 point Alex Albon to finish on the podium @ 8.00 with Unibet

The midfield battle is always interesting, and this year is no different. It looks like the Best of the Rest championship will be fought out between McLaren, Renault and Racing Point.

The 2019 Mercedes inspired Racing Point should be well suited to the circuit given the fact that Mercedes had 1-2 finish here last year. Their one lap pace was very good in testing and their long pace, while not as competitive was reasonable. Perez is their lead driver and while his record here isn’t anything special, he has always got the car home and had four points finishes from nine starts in various teams.

In its former guise as Force India, the team enjoyed three double points finishes in the last six years and only once did they fail to score in the season opener.

Renault have not fared so well in the turbo-hybrid era with just two seventh places in the last two years being their only points finishes. This is Ricciardo’s home race and even in his days at Red Bull, he has never made the podium and has failed to finish in two of the last three years. Ocon is coming back after a year in the Mercedes simulator and just the post 2019 season test in Abu Dhabi and the Barcelona tests. He might just be a bit rusty, but he has raced here twice and scored a point for Force India in 2017.

McLaren Struggling

McLaren used to win a lot of races back the good old days, but they have really struggled in recent years. The had a double podium finish in 2014 but their only points since then came with a double points finish in 2018. Carlos Sainz, as always, has a steady record with four points finishes from five starts, his only blank was on debut for McLaren last year. Lando Norris was 12^th on debut last year.

Renault will be sporting a big upgrade on the car that was tested at Barcelona but most teams will have refined their designs since testing ended. Racing Point will also be upgraded, one of only two planned for the season ahead.

Racing Point are the team that interests me most. The idea of just ripping off the best car of 2019 looks so blindingly obvious that is a surprise that it hasn’t been done before. The reaction of rival teams suggests that they have done a good job. If they had turned up at Barcelona with a Mercedes lookalike that was slow, nobody would have said a word. The fact that they were regularly up near the top suggests that they have hit on good performance which has infuriated Renault and McLaren who have spent more money ploughing their own furrow.

It is possible, likely even, that the Racing Point will be subject of a protest but like the protest over Mercedes DAS, it is likely to fail.

Perez Reliable

Perez, a safe pair of hands, most of the time, is very experienced and very excited about his chances in this car. If tyre wear becomes an issue this weekend, that will increase his chances of a good result.  

I was hoping for a better price than evens for Perez to have a top 6 finish and better odds for Sainz. Perez is 2.00, Sainz 2.30 and while both could well do it. The odds just aren’t good enough, at this point in time.

Ricciardo at 6.00 is a more generous price. Renault are being talked up by some good judges and with a substantial upgrade they may well improve on the testing form, which while hard to call, wasn’t bad and they should be in the mix and improve on recent showings in Australia. They have had a car in seventh place here for the last two years and with Ricciardo fully wound up for his home race they could well go one better.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: 1 point Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 @ 6.00 with Skybet and Sportingbet

With the big three and Renault, McLaren and Racing Point looking to be ahead of the remaining four teams, it will be hard for them to win a point on merit but Albert Park has historically been a high attrition circuit. Three cars were not classified last year, the lowest of the turbo-hybrid era. The reliability of the cars in testing was very noticeable. So we shouldn’t expect many, if any, mechanical failures come Sunday. However it is a track that does invite accidents and the first few corners on the opening lap have seen many drivers race ended early. With one or two casualties from the midfield it might allow one of the lesser fancied teams get a point or two.

One team who have a very interesting record in Melbourne is Haas. They have scored two sixth places in their four year existence and it should have been more. Outside of those two sixth places, they have had six DNF’s and many of those from strong positions. Last year, after good testing form, they qualified sixth and seventh and Magnussen finished sixth with Grosjean retiring after a problem at a pitstop getting a wheel on which eventually worked itself lose and he had to stop.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: Haas Deserve A Change Of Luck

In 2018 Haas qualified sixth and seventh and both were going well, fourth and fifth in the race. At the first pitstop both Haas cars came out of the pits only to have to retire within yards of the pit exit as the wheels had not been securely fitted. From Rock Stars to wankers as Gunther Steiner famously said at the time.

Grosjean qualified in sixth in 2017 but had to retire with a water leak but he did get a break in 2016 when he finished sixth having qualified in nineteenth place. That was the teams first ever F1F race and its mostly been downhill ever since.

Haas’ testing form had most people putting them just ahead of Williams. Even though they didn’t get as many miles in as they would have liked. The team say they were happy with the results and that the car does not have the same problems as last years dog of a car.

Haas have a bittersweet relationship with Albert Park. They do seem to know how to qualify well but can’t seem to be able to fit a tyre properly. Surely they can’t have a third year with the wheels literally falling off? Last years car was a good qualifier but a terrible race car. Testing this year suggests that they have a better car on long runs. However, they have sacrificed qualifying speed as a result.

Magnussen was second here for McLaren on his debut and sixth for Haas last year. Perhaps he will get some pay back for all the bad luck in between.

Australian GP 2020 Preview: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 4.25 with Sportingbet

Updates for qualifying and the race will be posted on the TXODDS app over the weekend.

-JamesPunt