Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips For Live ITV Races
Nastase almost got us off to the perfect start at Ayr but he got mugged on the line. Queen Of Rio ran a lifeless race and was bitterly disappointing. Maygold was on the wrong side and despite travelling into the race well she seemed to get stuck in the gluey ground. The ground was too soft for Helvetian and unfortunately Chookie Dunedin wouldn’t go into the stalls. Let’s hope we get a bit more luck today. Check out Dave Stevos’ Ayr and Newbury Saturday racing tips for live ITV races below…
Newbury: 1.40pm – Dubai World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
Only seven go to post in this Group 3, a disappointing turnout. With a rating of 111 Equilateral is the one to beat here, he isn’t exactly prolific though. He did run very well behind Glass Slippers in a G1 at the Curragh last weekend and this is a big drop in class. If he repeats the form of his effort behind Battaash in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot he should win this. Lazuli and Tis Marvelous look his biggest dangers and the 3yo Glamorous Anna could run well at bigger odds. However, with just 2 places on offer I am sitting this one out. No bet.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
Ayr: 1.55pm – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)
Frustratingly, just seven horses have been declared for this race too. On his favoured soft ground Addeybb will be very hard to beat. His form figures for his last 4 runs read 2112 and they all came at Group 1 level. He was only 0.75L behind Irish Champion Stakes heroine at Ascot last October and that form is head and shoulders above what any of his rivals have produced. Lord Glitters could be the one to chase him home now back on softer ground and one that could outrun his odds is What’s The Story, last year’s runner up. This is a far stronger renewal though and the bookies have the prices about right. No bet again.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
Newbury: 2.15pm – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
At a big price I think Mandarin could go well in this tricky 10f handicap. David Loughnane has been amongst the winners in recent weeks and this horse shaped as though he was on his way back at Sandown. Holly Doyle was just starting to make inroads up the inner from the 2f pole and Mandarin was still travelling within himself. However, just as they hit a furlong out the gap closed and Doyle had to snatch up. It was game over after that and he came home 5L behind the winner.
You have to forgive him a poor effort at York last time but perhaps he just doesn’t like it there. He was well beat on his only previous visit and he should be more at home on this galloping track. He is back down to a mark of 88, just 2lb higher than the rating off which he won easily at Newmarket last season. Drying ground will suit, James Doyle looks a good booking and at 30/1, Mandarin is the each way selection.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips: Mandarin e/w @ 30/1 NB (4 Places)
Ayr and Newbury Saturday: 2.30pm – Ayr Silver Cup (Class 2)
After watching the Bronze Cup and the other sprint races at Ayr on Friday, a low draw is no good. You need to be middle to high as the near side seems to be racing much quicker than the inner. Illusionist is a horse I believe has a pot like this in him and given he is a hold up sort, Sam James should be able to tack across to the near side from stall 8. We backed him at Royal Ascot for 6 places and he finished 6th at 150/1. He was staying on well at the finish that day and he appreciated the ease in the ground.
The son of Hot Streak was only beaten a head at York off 89 on his penultimate outing (5f sft). His three other runs since Ascot weren’t great, but those came on quicker ground than this horse likes. Conditions look ideal today and while he has yet to prove he gets 6f, his staying on effort over 5f at Royal Ascot suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. His pedigree offers encouragement on that front too. Grant Tuer’s last runner won, Sam James knows the horse well and at 66/1 Illusionist is the each way selection.
Ayr Silver Cup Tip: Illusionist e/w @ 66/1 NAP (6 Places)
Ayr: 3.05pm – Firth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes (Group 3)
This 15 runner 2yo fillies race looks a tough puzzle to solve. The bookies reckon Umm Kulthum is the one to beat after a super effort at York behind Miss Amulet. However, a low draw in stall 4 has to rate as a big negative. The one I’ll be backing e/w from stall 12 is Setantii Girl for James Given and Tom Eaves. This filly has run just once and it was a 2L win at Ripon (6f sft). You wouldn’t have called her the winner even a furlong out as James Sullivan seemed to be pushing along with little response. However, the penny dropped and she took off in the last 150 yards to win going away.
The 4th home in that race, Bumble Bee, hacked up by nearly 4L next time in a Wolves maiden. The horse in 2nd was only rated 74 but he had lots of experience and to beat him so readily on her first start was pretty impressive. Clearly this is a huge step up in class but she is proven on easy ground and at today’s 6f trip. James Given has had plenty of winners at Ayr and he has had 2 wins and 16 top 4 finishes from just 39 2yo runners at the track. With 4 places available, Setantii Grlis the e/w selection at 33/1.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips: Setantii Girl e/w @ 33/1 (4 Places)
Ayr and Newbury Saturday: 3.25pm – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
This is an intriguing 6f contest for 2yos only and 8 will take their chances. Rhythm Master has the best form, a good 3rd in the G1 Prix Morny last time. Fivethousandtoone is closely matched with Bahrain Pride on their Windsor meeting and they are both prominent in the betting. All three of the market leaders have yet to encounter good ground though. The one I like at an each way price is First Edition for Cox and Kirby. This son of Invincible Spirit built on a mildly promising debut at Sandown by hosing up at the same track last time out (5f gd).
He made all that day for a 6L win and he had a 90+ rated horse behind in 2nd. Now, the runner up admittedly fell out of the stalls but it was still a very impressive performance. He is very nicely bred, by a classy sire and his dam is out of a half sister to the dam of Dubawi. Clive Cox had this race in mind after that win 8 days ago and it would be no surprise if this horse improved again. He could prove better than his mark of 88 and on breeding this extra furlong should suit. At odds of 20/1, First Edition is the each way pick.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips: First Edition e/w @ 20/1
Ayr: 3.40pm – Ayr Gold Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
The big race of the day is the Ayr Gold Cup and 24 are due to go to post. It is an absolute minefield, as you would expect, and you could make a case for plenty. The one I like from a favourable draw in stall 16 is Major Jumbo. Okay, he finished 14th in this last season but that was off 108 and he was only 4L behind the winner. He has been kept in Listed and Group 3s this term and he ran a couple of solid races at Newmarket, Chester and Newcastle. He failed to win though and he gets in here off 105.
Megan Nicholls takes off another 3lb so Major Jumbo is effectively 6lb lower than he was last season. His record under female jockeys reads 1321 so clearly he appreciates a woman’s touch. He last won a handicap off 102 back in 2018 (6f sft) so he is feasibly handicapped and he is drawn to attack from stall 16. You can forget his last run (raced in midfield) and at odds of 40/1 Major Jumbo is a speculative each way selection.
