Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: All Live ITV Races
We got off to a poor start on the opening day of the International Meeting at Cheltenham. Sweet Adare fell relatively early on and it was too soon to tell whether she would have figured at the business end. Dolos didn’t stay the trip, though his jockey didn’t help by keeping him wide. We missed out on our forecast by the width of a cigarette paper but Some Neck got us back on track. He got up in the dying strides under a great ride from Ben Harvey, landing our e/w NB bets at 22/1. The International Meeting continues on Saturday live on ITV4. Check out Dave Stevos’ Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday tips below…
Cheltenham Saturday: 1.50pm – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Grade 3)
A cracking start to the day’s action on ITV4 with the 20.5f Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. A maximum field of 17 will go to post for this handicap chase. As ever, it looks an extremely competitive heat. With extra places on offer from quite a few firms, I’ll be taking a chance on one at a big price each way. The one I am interested in at monster odds is Militarian. This son of Kayf Tara has been the flagbearer for his small yard and trainer Andrew Martin has booked James Bowen for the ride. He comes into the race on the back of a fine effort at Ascot last time (24f sft). This drop back in distance should pose no problems.
This fella pulled off a massive shock at Ascot (24f sft) last season when winning at 50/1. He has also won at 16f, 21f and 23f in the past two seasons. So, on that evidence he should be fine over 20.5f around Cheltenham. He won off a mark of 138 at Ascot and he races off the same rating today. Last January he then ran well to be 4th at this track off 143 (26f sft) when it looked like he didn’t quite stay the trip. Militarian then finished 5th over today’s C&D when he reportedly had a breathing issue. He looked like he was coming back to something like his best last time and that run should have left him spot on for today’s race. With 6 places available, Militarian is well worth backing e/w at 40/1.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: Militarian e/w @ 40/1 NAP (6 Places)
Doncaster Saturday: 2.05pm – December Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
The opening race from Doncaster is a 24f Grade 2 chase for novices. Ofalltheginjoints is a warm order for Tizzard and Power. This horse scored off 136 at Exeter last time and he is now rated 143. He would be conceding weight to the rest of his rivals in a handicap so the conditions of the race are in his favour. He will enjoy the good to soft ground too and he is definitely the one they have to beat.
However, I am a big fan of House Island and I think he can put it up to the favourite. This son of Casamento is rated 5lb inferior to the fav. However, I think he has the potential to improve now upped in trip. He won on his second start over fences at Ludlow last time out, beating Annsam by 2L. He didn’t perform to his best on his only previous start at 3 miles but he had excuses.
It was at Cheltenham and that track doesn’t suit him, especially when the ground is soft. He is well worth another shot at the distance, especially at a flatter track like Doncaster. The Mighty Don ran on Friday so this will likely be a 4 runner race with no each way betting. However, I think House Island is worth backing for the win at odds of 9/2.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday: House Island win @ 9/2
Cheltenham: 2.25pm – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A field of 8 will go to post for this 24f Grade 2 novices’ hurdle. The one I like is Make Good for in form John McConnell and Richard Johnson. This 5yo son of Fast Company is not bred to be a stayer but his flat form suggests that stamina is his strong suit. His two wins on the level came at 14f, including a 9L romp at Navan (sft) back in October. That was followed by two solid efforts in maiden and novice hurdles at Fairyhouse and Gowran (2nd in both). He finally got off the mark over timber last time out when winning a 16f handicap hurdle at Gowran by 13L on heavy off 119.
He has yet to try further over hurdles but it could spark even more improvement in this horse. The soft conditions at Cheltenham will be right up his street. He also won’t mind if there is any more rain. The British handicapper handed him a rating of 137 after his win last time so he comes into the race as the top rated. The booking of Richard Johnson is another plus (9/17 for McConnell with 5 places). At odds of 8/1, Make Good is the each way pick.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: Make Good e/w @ 8/1
Doncaster 2.40pm – Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
Another small field for this 16.5f Juvenile Hurdle with just 5 due to go to post. I fancied Glorious Zoff to run well at Fairyhouse last month but he was a non-runner. It may work out for the better for this son of Zoffany though. The good to soft conditions at Doncaster should suit better than the softer ground at Fairyhouse. The form of his Sligo win has worked out and the 3rd home in his Sedgefield 2nd won a maiden next time out. Okay, he was beat at odds of 4/11 at Sedgefield but it was a muddling affair that wasn’t run to suit.
He is almost certain to get a more truly run race here as three of his rivals like to get on with things. The biggest threat to Glorious Zoff will probably come from Monmiral. He was impressive when making it 2/2 over hurdles when winning by over 5L at Exeter (17f sft). The 3rd home in that contest didn’t do much for the form on his next outing but at least one subsequent winner came out of his Auteuil win. Whether this better ground will suit Monmiral is debateable though. At the prices, Glorious Zoff is worth backing for the win.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: Glorious Zoff win @ 10/3
Cheltenham 3.00pm – International Hurdle (Grade 2)
A surprisingly big field of 10 will battle it out in this 16f Grade 2 and there should be festival clues aplenty. Goshen is on a retrieval mission after his heartbreaking last hurdle mishap last March. He unseated Jamie Moore with the race at his mercy in the Triumph and the 4yo is fancied by many to make amends. He had a couple of spins on the flat at Haydock and Goodwood in September and October so he won’t lack for fitness. However, he was pretty well beaten on both occasions. Connections will hope that the return to hurdling sparks him back to form.
Symonds’ Star Course concerns
Song For Someone’s rise through the ranks has been one of the feelgood stories of the last two seasons. He scored in a 16f Grade 2 at Kempton on his final start last term. He then reappeared with a superb performance when winning another Grade 2 at Ascot (19f sft). The 5yo son of Medicean is still progressing on the evidence of his last run and you would expect more improvement given that was his first outing.
The worry for his supporters is that this will be his first run at Cheltenham. He has won most of his races on much flatter tracks and this will be a very different test. However, if connections are considering a crack at the Champion Hurdle in March they have to give it a shot. It would be no surprise if he proved up to the task but he is a bit short for my liking.
Ground Against Streak and Sceau
Silver Streak is another horse who encountered misfortune on his last run. We backed him to win at Newcastle on his favoured good ground but he was carried out early by a loose horse. This is a horse I rate really highly but unfortunately, he needs good ground. He is a stone better on a decent surface compared to on soft in my opinion and unless the ground dries out significantly he is up against it.
The exact same sentiment applies to Sceau Royal. Alan King’s son of Doctor Dino is another very talented sort but his best efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Yes, he did win a few on easier ground when he was younger but 8 of his last 9 victories have come on good to soft or better.
Lord Looks Overpriced
The one that looks massively overpriced is last year’s winner, Call Me Lord. Nicky Henderson’s 7yo son of Slickly drops back in distance after a couple of runs over 20f. He chased home Song For Someone last time at Ascot (19.5f sft). However, back at Cheltenham and over this shorter trip he could easily turn that form around. James Bowen’s mount will love the soft ground too and today’s trip is his optimum distance.
The fact that Nico De Boinville rides Verdana Blue might put some people off but Bowen has ridden Call Me Lord the last thrice. Bowen was on board for his win in this last season too. So, connections may have made the decision rather than De Boinville. I think this horse has lots in his favour today and at odds of 16/1 he is well worth backing each way.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: Call Me Lord e/w @ 18/1 NB (4 places)
Doncaster 3.15pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The last live race of the day from Doncaster on ITV4 is a 3 mile handicap chase. Ten will line up at the start and three of them are having their first runs back after long absences. I would rather back one with race fitness in a contest of this nature and the one I like at a working man’s price is Looking Well for Nicky Richards and Ryan Day. This 11yo son of Gold Well likes it at Doncaster and the former course and distance winner should come on leaps and bounds for his return effort over hurdles at Kelso (26f gd/sft).
That was his first run back after a mammoth 616 day break and he shaped really nicely behind Rock On Fruity in 4th. Before his absence he fell on 2 of his previous chase starts so that run last time should have boosted his confidence. Those jumping errors do rate as a slight worry but the return to Doncaster is a huge positive. He has form figures of 261F at the track and when he fell he was in the process of running a big race. When he was 6th it was soft ground and the 2 and 1 came over today’s trip on good ground. Good to soft ground is fine for him too and if he puts in a clear round he should be thereabouts. At odds of 14/1, Looking Well is the e/w pick.
Cheltenham and Doncaster Saturday Tips: Looking Well e/w @ 14/1
Cheltenham 3.35pm – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Ten talented mares will battle it out for the £15k first prize in this 20.5f handicap hurdle. Indefatigable won the Martin Pipe at the festival in March off 145 and she is 6lb higher today. She has rock solid course form, she won’t mind the ground and she should be fit from two runs already this season. The bookies haven’t missed her though and at a bigger price I think The Bay Birch could outrun her odds for Matt Sheppard and Sam Twiston-Davies.
This mare is better known as a chaser but she has struggled in that sphere since her last win off a mark of 145. She has run well on a couple of her four starts over fences this season without really threatening so it is no surprise that connections return to the smaller obstacles. They will be hoping she can exploit a mark of 125 over hurdles, 20lb lower than her last winning chase mark. This is much easier than races she has run in recently and soft ground is absolutely fine. She is potentially very well treated, she will appreciate running against her own sex and at odds of 18/1, The Bay Birch is the e/w selection.
