Formula 1 2020 Tips and Preview – Revisited

James Punt had already written an in-depth preview for the F1 season. That was before the Coronavirus struck though and some things are looking pretty different now. You can check out his up to date Formula 1 2020 Tips and preview below…

Formula 1 2020 Season Tips And Preview

It has been an unprecedented year for the entire planet, but it is now time for things to get going again, albeit in some very different forms. We have had darts tournaments played remotely from hallways, bedrooms and man caves. Football has returned but without any crowd and indeed it is hard to guess what or when will be the first sports event to be held with a ‘normal’ audience/crowd there to spectate.

Formula 1 returns with a very different look to the planned calendar. No more the 22 races that where planned. Instead we have eight confirmed races in Europe at just 6 venues. We will see two races being held at the Red Bull Ring in Austria and a double header at Silverstone along with races in Hungary, Belgium, Spain and Italy. More races may or may not be added.

Abu Dhabi Should Go Ahead

Abu Dhabi looks likely to go ahead with at least one race and there are rumours of a second race in Italy at Mugello, and perhaps a third at Monza. Bahrain looks a stick on as the track is in the middle of nowhere and nobody went to it at the best of times. Russia is pushing to host a double header, which would please Mercedes. Portugal has thrown its hat into the ring for a race and there is still the belief that there will be around 16 races in total.

Of course, just as we had a false start to the season back in March due to a member of the McLaren team testing positive just before the Australian GP, there is no guarantee that all the planned races will go ahead. Or indeed that the 2020 season will ever be completed. New outbreaks continue to pop up all over the world and it may be optimistic to think that F1 can move around without any instances of personnel in the system becoming infected. Or that a proposed venue must shut down at short notice.

Time To Get Started

We are now faced with the season starting, not shortly after the final tests at Barcelona, but after three months of nothing. We really don’t know what the teams have been able to do during the shutdown. Ferrari were initially badly hit and had to close down completely well before their rivals but every team will have had to adopt working from home measures.

It’s hard to imagine that all the teams will have been sitting at home twiddling their thumbs, just waiting for the re-start. However, with no testing of the 2020 cars allowed, we are going into the first races somewhat in the dark.

One big bit of news to come out during the shutdown is that the teams have agreed to big spending caps and regulation changes, but these big changes will now not come into effect until 2022. Next years cars will be simple evolutions of this season’s models. The teams can concentrate, if not quite 100% on developing this year’s car, very close to it. There will be no need to shut down development in mid-summer to concentrate on next years car, although one team says differently.

We should expect to see a lot of developments being put on the cars at nearly every race, at least for the most financially healthy teams. The poorer teams may be forced to do no development due to a lack of funds.

We will have a quick review of the individual teams and look at what has changed since the shutdown.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: The Teams

Mercedes

Constructors Championship Odds – 1.25

Lewis Hamilton – 1.61

Valtteri Bottas  –  9.00

There has been some news and some rumours at Mercedes. The news was that their engine guru, Andy Cowell, is to leave the team this summer after 16 years. He is the man who over saw the design of Mercedes all conquering Turbo Hybrid power units. This probably won’t be a problem however.

Firstly, there are no big power unit regulation changes planned until 2026 and the power units are not the hot ticket at the moment. Secondly, Mercedes are very good at management and will have in place a succession plan for all key staff. Internal promotions have already been made and Cowell’s last job will be to make sure that the transition is a smooth one.

The rumours have been that team boss, Toto Wolff, could be joining Cowell on the way out. He has been linked with Lawrence Stroll, owner of Racing Point, and Aston Martin’s plans to enter the sport next year. It is a rumour that makes sense.

Mercedes interest in a business model based on internal combustion engines is said to be cooling. The returns on its investment in Formula 1 has been very good and continues to be positive. However, with the move to electric vehicles there will come a time that Formula 1 is not a best fit for a mass manufacturer of motor vehicles.

Flirting With Formula E

Mercedes have started racing in Formula E and perhaps that is where their medium to long term future lies. For Wolff, the lure of a well-paid new project to head up the Aston Martin/Racing Point team, with likely equity in the busines, would be attractive. If Aston Martin could get him on board, then others will follow and that is the real threat to Mercedes future in F1.

As for where Mercedes will be after the long shutdown it seems wise to speculate that they will have made changes to their car. It would have been modified after the Barcelona tests in any case, all the teams would have done the same, but as one of the big, wealthy teams, Mercedes can afford to a program of continuous development, lock down or not. Expect Mercedes to be bringing a lot of development to their cars very quickly.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Hamilton The Hot Fav

Lewis Hamilton remains the big odds on favourite (1.61) for the title with Bottas the 9.00 fourth favourite. The Finn is very likely to be looking for another drive next season and this might be, is very likely to be, his last chance to win the World Championship. A shortened calendar might improve his chances.

Lewis Hamilton’s preparation for the season has been de-railed to a certain extent by the Black Lives Matter campaign. He has been on protest marches, which must be a worry for Mercedes, given social distancing guidelines, and he has set up The Lewis Hamilton Commission, to promote diversity in racing. It is inevitable now that he will be distracted by off track matters and being the centre of attention for non-racing reasons. Whether this affects his performance remains to be seen.

Ferrari

Constructors Championship Odds – 8.00

Charles Leclerc – 9.00

Sebastian Vettel – 17.00

It was notable that the FIA sent all the teams updates to the power unit regulations in early June. This further reinforces the crack down on any ‘grey areas’ that teams (read Ferrari) had been exploiting in 2019. It looked clear in the original pre-season tests that Ferrari had designed a car with more downforce for better cornering performance.

That meant more drag and when they couldn’t use their power unit in the same way as in 2019, they were losing a lot of ground to the rest of the leading teams on the straights. The well-timed reminder over regulations was aimed at Ferrari and we have to expect that they will remain somewhat handicapped by a lowering of power unit performance.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Vettel Set To Leave

The Ferrari boat was further rocked during the enforced break by the announcement that Sebastian Vettel will leave the team at the end of this season. I pointed out that this was likely to be the case in the original pre-season preview and it has come to pass. It leaves the team in a difficult position.

They have, effectively, a disgruntled employee driving one of their cars. Vettel doesn’t handle quicker team mates well and the fact that the two Ferrari drivers crossed swords to the detriment of the team in 2019, is a warning of what may lay ahead. Vettel may now be an outright liability. One little thing highlights the potential tensions. Charles Leclerc voluntarily took a 25% pay cut for the season ahead. Vettel didn’t. They are not singing from the same hymn sheet.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Will Power Unit Problems Persist?

Like many teams, Ferrari will be running a 2018 car for a two-day test in Italy. Charles Leclerc was back on the kart track to get some real driving before his F1 track day. Like a few of the other, younger, F1 drivers, Leclerc has been spending a lot time playing racing simulation games and performing well until being overthrown by the e-racing prowess of William’s George Russell. Vettel tried one e-race, floundered, and buggered off.

Unless Ferrari have been able to use the downtime to fix their power unit woes it looks like the Prancing Horse may be a bit lame, certainly in the early part of the season.  There is speculation that Ferrari have been working on the power unit and found 15 bhp which may be enough to bring them back to parity with Mercedes and Honda. However, it remains speculation before we see Q3 in Austria. The same source says that the team have made further improvements to their gearbox but that aerodynamic changes will come later.

Red Bull

Constructors Championship Odds – 5.50

Max Verstappen – 6.00

Alex Albon – 100.00

It has been quiet at Red Bull during the shutdown but that is not a bad thing. They will have been working as hard as the circumstances allowed in the same way as Mercedes and Ferrari. One area where they can’t match Ferrari and Mercedes is getting their drivers into an F1 car before the start of the season.

Teams are allowed to run two year old cars for private testing. It is of limited use technically, but it does help the drivers get a bit of rust off, to get the feel of G-forces, allowed real time pit-stop practice and so on. Due to Red Bulls non-existent relationship with Renault, they don’t have power units for their 2018 car, so any on pre-restart track running for Verstappen and Albon, will be in a 2018 Toro Rosso.

Both drivers were involved in e-racing during the lockdown. Albon was a regular feature in the virtual F1 races while Verstappen shunned the official races for other platforms. It is hard to say if this virtual racing will help a driver keep his eye in for the real thing, but it certainly can’t hurt them.

McLaren

Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00

Carlos Sainz – 501.00

Lando Norris – 1001.00

There have been good and bad smoke signals at McLaren. The team have made great progress in the last year, reversing their decline and they are now moving in the right direction. The right people have been recruited, the sponsors are returning, and they will have Mercedes power next season. This season is going to be another one of rebuilding, refining, and looking forward to 2021 and 2022. Daniel Ricciardo will join the team next season as Carlos Sainz replaces Vettel at Ferrari.

The bad news is that the McLaren group is having to make redundancies. McLaren are a supercar manufacturer that doesn’t sell as many cars as Ferrari and that part of the business is struggling. The latest news is that the team is looking to sell a 20% share of the Formula 1 team to secure its position financially. It is a reminder that McLaren, while still a big team are not in the top tier financially.  It is likely that they will find an investor as with the new budget caps coming in 2022, F1 teams can become profitable again.

The driver line up remains the same for this season but with Sainz on his way out, expect Norris to be the teams focus of attention.

Renault

Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00

Daniel Ricciardo – 751.00

Esteban Ocon – 1001.00

Renault pulled off something of a coup by arranging for a two day test at the Red Bull ring last week. It was with a 2018 car but between the two drivers they got over 250 laps done on the track which will hoist the first two races of the season. They got that advantage, on Red Bulls home track, whilst Red Bull had no 2018 car to use, thanks to having no Renault power units to run with. Red Bull where not amused. Comments from Red Bulls Helmut Marko saying that Renault had used a 2018 car with a 2020 power unit were not true. It was an old spec unit.

Esteban Ocon, replacing the departed Nico Hulkenberg, will have very much required a good long run after his year out in 2019. He reported no ill effects on his body and Ricciardo and Esteban have stolen a march on their rivals by getting their eye in on the track which will see the first two races of the season.

The team believe they are in the mix in the best of the rest category, along with Racing Point and McLaren. The opening two races in Austria will be a big test for Renault who struggled there last year. If they do so again, they are very much on the back foot in a shortened season.

Racing Point

Constructors Championship Odds – 301.00

Sergio Perez – 251.00

Lance Stroll – 1001.00

Racing Point used up one of their ‘filming days’ to run their 2020 car at Silverstone. That is not a proper test of course but it gave them the chance to make sure all the systems are working as planned and to get used to working with fewer people in the garage.

The team are very much in a rebuilding phase, looking ahead to becoming the Aston Martin works team in effect. The investment money is there for upgrading the facilities and that is where the real development will come from. They will need to get spending ASAP, before the budget caps kick in in 2020.

The car is very much a copy of last years Mercedes and it has a Mercedes power unit and transmission. On that basis the car will be competitive in the best of the rest category.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Positive Vibes

Racing Point are making positive noises about the chances of their ‘Pink Mercedes’. They had a very positive Barcelona test and while admitting that they have not been able to do any significant development work since then, they expect to be able to bring that testing form to the opening races. Their car is said the be the best that the team, in all its guises, has ever produced. How Lance Stroll gets on in qualifying is key to how well the team can do in the constructor’s championship.

Racing Point have said that they are only planning for one ‘significant’ upgrade during the new proposed calendar. There will be some track specific developments as per usual, but they have decided that one small regulation changed for 2021 means that they will need to concentrate on the 2021 car over developing the 2020 car.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: New Floor For 2021 Car

The floor of the cars in 2021 will be different and Racing point say that will require a front to back redesign of the cars aerodynamics. The mechanical side of things will not change, but there will be enough change to the aero package that it must take priority. Nobody else has been saying this so we shall just have to wait and see what other teams do. As usual though, the bigger teams will be able to work on both the 2020 cars and next years car.

Racing Point are still targeting 4th place in the Constructors Championship which means beating McLaren and Renault. It is an optimistic target but a sign that they are confident in their package.

Alpha Tauri

Constructors Championship Odds – 1001.00

Pierre Gasly – 2001.00

Daniil Kvyat – 2001.00

The new name for the old Toro Rosso team. The car has a new paint job and the driver’s new overalls, but it is the same team as last year. Continuity is good and the Red Bull B team is able to punch above its weight thanks to that connection. They benefit from the improving Honda power unit and while they may be a little off the pace of Racing Point, McLaren and Renault, they always have their day in the sun at some point in a season. This shortened season will be no different.

Alfa Romeo

Constructors Championship Odds – 1001.00

Kimi Raikkonen – 1501.00

Antonio Giovinazzi – 2501.00

Much the same can be said for the Ferrari B team, Alfa Romeo. The investment made by Alfa Romeo has stabilised the team’s finances and while their driver line up may not be the best, they can have the odd good weekend but it is a team that looks like it would benefit from a change of drivers. Raikkonen isn’t getting any younger and Giovinazzi doesn’t look good enough. He might well be keeping the seat warm for the inevitable signing of Mick Schumacher in the next year or two. I can see Raikkonen making way for a younger, but still experienced driver, such as Bottas in the next year or two.

Haas

Constructors Championship Odds – 2001.00

Kevin Magnussen – 2001.00

Romain Grosjean – 2001.00

A team on the ropes in terms of performance and finances. Any race that is cancelled means less money to be distributed to the teams. Everyone is going to take a large amount of financial pain this season and those teams who are only just hanging on, waiting for the budget cap era to start, are going to have operate on a much reduced budget, or go bust. Haas have denied that they are looking to sell the team, but I am sure they would welcome new investment.

The smaller teams are already handicapped by budgets and in the current climate, how can they even hope to compete in the midfield if they have no money to develop their cars? Unless the likes of Haas and Williams can hit the ground running with a well designed car, they are going to be left behind, stuck at the back of the grid for the season.

Reckless and Risky

Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean are still the two drivers which is good for continuity, but neither are top class drivers. Both can be good on their day but Grosjean can be mistake prone and Magnussen tends to the reckless at times. He is fun to watch but a bit high risk.

The team ‘do not have the capacity’ to do any pre-season shakedown runs and nor will they have any 2020 season upgrades for the car until they know just how many races there will be and whether that allows them sufficient income to spend some cash on development. Neither of which sounds good. Under prepared and with little or no development in the pipeline.

Williams

Constructors Championship Odds – 3001.00

George Russell – 2501.00

Nicolas Latifi – 2501.00

At the back of the grid Williams have spent the shutdown putting up the ‘for sale’ signs. In the initial preview we pointed out their precarious financial situation and things have only gotten worse. Their title sponsor and Williams have terminated their agreement and that suggests that somebody was in breach. That is another income stream closed and it is hard to see how the team can compete in its current state. Rumours persist that Bernie Ecclestone is getting the band back together and trying to find new backers for the team.

It says something that Williams driver, George Russell, has made a bigger impression while ‘driving’ in the virtual Grand Prix’s than in the whole of last season in a real Williams. It doesn’t matter how good a driver you are, if you have to drive a Williams, you are likely to finish last or very close to it.

Improvements Have Been Made

Their 2020 car will be better than last years car. It has brakes that work properly for a start and is easier to drive. However, everyone else will very probably, have improved their car and a good result for Williams this season will still to be in business at the end of it.

I guess that Russell will be on his way to Mercedes next season which makes way for another pay driver to bring in some much need cash, but you have to wonder how many mugs there are out there, willing to pay millions to drive around in a totally uncompetitive car?

Williams other driver, Nicolas Latifi, is bringing money to the team but his Dad is now a shareholder at McLaren. Surely if Latifi was any good, he would end up at Woking? The problem for Latifi is that McLaren remain a serious outfit, ambitious and capable. They require top quality drivers and are prepared to actually pay them.

Dated Business Model

The Williams business model doesn’t work in the modern era. They choose not to go down the route of being a B team to a top outfit but stuck to building their own car and many of its components. That is expensive and when you have a small budget, small work force and fewer technical resources, you can’t hope to be competitive.

No amount of British pluck will change that, and Williams have been dinning out on nostalgia for too long now. They have become something of a metaphor for the UK, trying to find its place in a changing world but paralysed by a nostalgia for a glorious, but increasingly distant past.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Conclusion

A much changed calendar which will have an influence on drivers relative chances of winning the title and potential finishing position in the championship, but some things haven’t changed.

The same reality that has applied for the last number of years still exists. There are only three teams that can seriously entertain the idea of winning the World Championships, drivers or constructors. There is no ‘Leicester City’ scenario on the horizon, shortened season or not.

Hamilton The Top Dog At Mercedes

At Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton is the Daddy. He is just a better driver than Bottas. The Finn can beat Hamilton on occasions but over a whole season? There is no evidence that will happen. You can make an argument that a much shorter season does improve Bottas’ chances.

He started last season like a train and actually led the World Championship after four rounds. However, it was another 11 races before he won another race, by which time Hamilton had bagged seven race wins and was untouchable. Bottas did finish second in the Championship but was 87 points behind Hamilton.

At Ferrari, Leclerc is now the chosen one and will receive full support from the team, preferential strategy and so on. Whether Vettel will be happy to play a supporting role, looks less likely. Leclerc is still relatively inexperienced with just two seasons in F1. He is not the finished article yet and he will make mistakes. His chances will be limited by how good his car is and that didn’t look too good in testing. He is further hindered by Ferrari being less than perfect operationally. They are their own worst enemy at times.

Verstappen No.1 At Red Bull

Red Bull have Max Verstappen as their number one driver. He definitely has the talent to win the championship, Red Bull know how to win championships and Honda are now able to compete in terms of power and reliability.

Verstappen has now had five seasons in F1 and has matured, gotten faster and makes fewer mistakes. If he gets a good car, a competitive car, then he is in with a real chance. The Barcelona test suggested that he does indeed have a competitive car. He was the best non-Mercedes driver last year and while its is a big gap to close, a shorter season might improve his chances.

Alex Albon is in the second Red Bull. He is still learning the ropes after just one season in F1 and just nine in the Red Bull. His job will be to get a few podium finishes which he looks capable of doing and he was cruelly denied his first one in Brazil last year.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Who Has Improved Most During Lockdown?

The only real difference between where we are now and where we where back in March is a different, shorter and unfinalised calendar, and the question as to who have been able to improve their car cars the most during the shutdown.

The later question is an unknown until we see the cars on track and in full flow. It is, likely, very likely, to be the bigger, richer teams who will have been able to improve the most. Ferrari had the most obvious problem to solve and in ‘normal’ times, three months would have seen them at least improve the situation, if not completely fix it.

With a long period of time when the factory was closed, they will not have been able to throw as many resources at it than usual. There has to be a question mark as to just how much power unit performance they have been able to claw back.

The changes to the calendar are more likely to have a bigger influence on the outcome of the Championship.

New Schedule

The first two races will be held at the Red Bull ring in Austria. The current track has been in used since 2014 and in that time, we have seen four consecutive wins for Mercedes, 2014 – 2017, but the last two have both been won by Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. Red Bull Ring may be a short, go kart like circuit, but it is power sensitive and that is the reason why Mercedes dominated in the early years of the Turbo Hybrid era. With that gap now all but gone it is not a given that the Silver Arrows will be favourites to win.

Furthermore, the circuit is not one of Lewis Hamilton’s favourite tracks. Of the four Mercedes wins in Austria, he has won just one. Bottas won in 2017 and has been on pole position for the last two years. He even came third in a Williams in 2014. Hamilton has still picked up plenty of points in Austria, but he hasn’t been on the podium since 2016. It is not a track he would have picked to hold two races on.

With Red Bull and Verstappen winning the last two and Hamilton not having a great record in Austria, it is a good place to start the season for the Dutchman and to have two races there, doubly so. An early championship advantage to Verstappen? Hopefully.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Hungary May Not Suit The Mercs

The third race will be in Hungary, another quirky circuit which hasn’t massively favoured Mercedes even in their years of total dominance. They have won three of the last six (the turbo hybrid era) and Hamilton three of the last four. It is much less of a power sensitive circuit which did give the other teams a chance. Ferrari won in 2015 and 2017 (both for Vettel) and Red Bull in 2014. Last year saw a thriller as Verstappen’s big lead was cut down by Hamilton whose better strategy won him the race.

Hamilton has only been on pole in Hungary once in the turbo hybrid era and again it is a track where he will face stiff competition. Bottas has a poor record at the Hungaroring with just one podium finish. It has been a decent venue for Vettel with two wins and a pole position since 2014. He has been on the podium for the last three years and with the Ferrari looking better in corners this season, this is a track which should play to the strengths of this years Ferrari. That of course brings Leclerc into the frame.

The Hungarian GP looks wide open and there is no obvious favourite.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Silverstone A Happy Hunting Ground For Hamilton

The circus then moves to Silverstone for two races. That will be music to Hamilton’s ears as he loves the British GP. This will be a British GP without his adoring fans of course and that might have a detrimental effect on his performance. Some drivers really do thrive at their home race, feeding of the energy of the fans to deliver their best performances. Others freeze and drive poorly, but Hamilton has always been able to perform at home.

Hamilton has won six British GP’s in his career but more importantly, he has dominated in the turbo hybrid era, winning five of the six races and he was second in the other. Four of those six races saw him start on pole position. There is no doubt who will be favourite for the two races at Silverstone. Only a win for Vettel in 2018 has stopped a clean sweep for Hamilton.

The Red Bulls have never had to power to compete at Silverstone in the turbo hybrid era, but with Honda now more competitive in that department, Verstappen will be hoping to get closer this time.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Spanish GP Up For Grabs

Spain is the next venue and on what we saw in testing that should be a close affair between Mercedes and Red Bull. Mercedes have dominated at Barcelona in recent years, winning five of the last six with only Verstappen’s first GP win and in his first race for Red Bull in 2016 breaking the sequence. Hamilton will be favourite to win that race but Verstappen has been third in the last two years and Honda have closed the power gap so it should be competitive this year.

The Belgian GP at Spa follows Spain (unless another race is slotted in between them) and again that looks to be a competitive affair. Ferrari have won the last two Belgian GP’s and it was the scene of Leclerc’s first GP win last year. Mercedes won three in a row between 2015 – 2017 and Red Bull last won in 2014. It has not been a happy hunting ground for Verstappen with just one podium in 2018 a result of any note. Hopefully with a more powerful and reliable Honda power unit, he can be in the mix this year, but this looks a decent venue for Hamilton, while Ferrari could spoil the party if they haven’t lost too much power.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: Monza Must Win For Ferrari

The final confirmed race of the season is the Italian GP at Monza. That is a must win race for Ferrari regardless of their position in the championship. They won it last year with Charles Leclerc effectively becoming the new Ferrari number 1. Before that they had been humiliated by five consecutive wins for Mercedes including four turbo hybrid wins for Lewis Hamilton.

Last year’s Ferrari was all about straight line performance and it was perfect for Monza. If this year’s power unit is down on power, then they will struggle. The change in design philosophy of this years car does make it look like they will be less competitive on their home circuit. It has been a very poor venue for Verstappen with a 5th place in 2018 his best result. Another race where Hamilton has to be favoured.

There will be more than the eight races announced so far. A Grand Prix at the Ferrari owned Mugello circuit looks all but a done deal. It would be timed to coincide with Ferrari’s 1000th Grand Prix, but with no real past form to go on, its guess work to say who the track would suit but Ferrari will have much more data to work with.

Could Bahrain Host Two GPs?

Two races in Bahrain makes a lot of sense. The track can hold day and floodlit races and it has more than one F1 approved circuit configuration. They can have a day race on one and a night race on the other. It is another venue which has not been good for Verstappen with three DNF’s and a best placed 4th last year his best finish. Hamilton has won three of the last six in Bahrain.

Abu Dhabi has been strongly tipped to hold at least one race. This has been another Mercedes dominated circuit. They have won all six of the turbo hybrid races here, four of them by Lewis Hamilton.

Races that will not take place are Australia, Vietnam, The Netherlands, Monaco, Baku, Singapore, France and Japan. Those listed as still possible are China (Mercedes friendly), Canada (very unlikely), United States (Mercedes friendly), Mexico City (Red Bull friendly), Brazil (Verstappen friendly but very unlikely) and Russia.

Russia is bidding for two races and has an easily confinable ‘bubble’ in which a GP could operate. Putin will want it to go ahead to make him look strong and Russia Covid free, which of course its not. Two Races in Sochi would be another boost for Hamilton. He has won four of the six previous races there and Mercedes all six.

It really does look like the revised calendar favours Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes. Historically they have dominated the majority of circuits in the turbo hybrid era but with Singapore, Mexico and Brazil likely to be cancelled, that’s three tracks where Verstappen could be fancied, gone.

Formula 1 2020 Tips

Our original ante post selection for the Championship was a 2 point bet on Verstappen to win the World Drivers Championship at 6.50. He is currently 6.00 but looking at the likely venues to be added, it doesn’t make great reading for Red Bull. Of course, if the car has more power this year, then Verstappen could and should be more competitive everywhere, so all is not lost.

Our other ante post bets included 1 point Daniil Kvyat to beat Pierre Gasly @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes. Teammate vs. Teammate bets shouldn’t be massively affected by the calendar change but in this instance, the venue changes may have gone against us. Kvyat has not done well in Austria before and two races there is a negative. He has done well enough in Spain and at Silverstone which makes up for that to some degree. Gasly likes Bahrain, Hungary and Belgium and losing Azerbaijan will be music to his ears. Only not going to Monaco is a negative for him.

Sainz’ Departure A Negative

The final ante post bet was 2 points Carlos Sainz to win the drivers’ championship ‘without the big 6’ @ 4.33 with William Hill. The news that he is to leave McLaren for Ferrari next season is another negative. Teams are obviously reluctant to keep departing drivers in the loop regarding car developments, especially in the later part of the season. He may not get the latest upgrades if they are in short supply and so on.

The calendar changes again don’t look to have helped his chances. His good tracks are Australia, Monaco (both cancelled), Hungary and Spain. His weak circuits are Bahrain (no points from five races), Austria, Britain and Italy. He has lost two of his strongest tracks and with two races in Austria and probably two in Bahrain he has to double up on two bad tracks for him.

Formula 1 2020 Tips: No New Bets Advised

Not a lot has changed odds wise from where they where in March. Sergio Perez and Racing Points odds have come in quite a bit but let’s be honest, he isn’t in the hunt for the World Championship and nor are Racing Point going to compete for the Constructors title. Vettel’s odds have drifted thanks to the news that he is leaving Ferrari and the odds for Ferrari winning the constructors title have drifted a little.

It looks like the bookmakers are now giving season long side markets the swerve. It is fair enough given that calendar is still uncertain in terms of locations and longevity. On that logic ante post bets should be voided and William Hill have allowed ante post bets to be voided, but that was by request. If you want to void your ante post bets, contact your bookmaker.

Only Retain Verstappen Bet

In my opinion, the changes and uncertainties ahead mean that the odds have changed and a lack of certainty about what kind of season we will see only adds to the risk. I will let the outright bet on Verstappen to ride despite some of the value being taken out of it, but the two other bets I will void.

Hopefully, we will get more clarity in the coming weeks and there might be opportunities for side bets a little further down the line. If anything worth backing pops up between now and the first race, it will be posted on the TXODDS app.

The preview for the Austrian GP will be posted next week, hopefully on the 2nd of July to allow for the latest weather forecasts to be noted.

-JamesPunt