Friday Live ITV Tips From Newmarket by Dave Stevos

We had a pretty good day on Thursday at York and Newmarket. Ropey Guest ran another cracker and was just pipped for a place late on. Furlong Factor nabbed 2nd for us, advised at 22/1 e/w and returned at 11/1. Sound Of Canons was far too keen and maybe needs a stronger pace over shorter. Rose Of Kildare won very well, staying on strongly as predicted and we were on at 12/1. Victory Heights got no cover and didn’t figure, while the rain scuppered Golden Dragon’s hopes. We at least finished on a high with Dame Maillot scoring in the last. The July Festival continues tomorrow at Newmarket. Check out Dave Stevos’ Friday live ITV tips below…

Friday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 1.50pm – Bet365 Handicap (Class 3)

It is great to see some of the lesser lights in flat racing get a moment in the spotlight in this class 3 handicap.  18 horses are due to go to post but given the conditions it would be no surprise if there was a few non-runners. One that should have no issues on the rain softened ground is Candelisa. Trained by David Loughnane, this 7yo son of Dream Ahead has placed form on heavy and good to soft.

His best good to soft placed from came at Doncaster and Ripon off 94. Candelisa is only rated 83 on turf now and he ran well during an all-weather campaign during the winter. He got to within 1.25L of an 82 rated Almufti off 77 and that horse was placed off 91 at Royal Ascot. He was too keen on her return at Beverley after a break and he should strip much fitter now. The quicker they go early the more it will suit this horse who has proven stamina at a mile. His trainer is in good form too and at odds of 20/1 Candelisa can go well with Tom Greatrex taking off 3lb.

Friday Live ITV Tips: Candelisa E/W @ 20/1 (6 PLACES)

ITV Live Selections: Newmarket 2.25pm – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)

On the evidence of her Albany Stakes procession, Dandalla is the one they have to beat here. The daughter of Dandy Man won by 6L and Karl Burke’s filly is clearly very talented. The recent rain won’t worry her and she is tough to oppose. Odds of 5/4 don’t tempt me though. Time Scale is another filly that was ultra impressive on the Rowley course here last time out. She is next best in the betting and if Oisin Murphy is allowed to dictate in front she could be dangerous.

However, the one I’ll be backing each way at a nice price is Ghaaliya. Trained by Brian Meehan, William Buick looks a significant booking. Her win came on the all-weather at Kempton and she was value for more than the winning margin. Soft ground is an unknown, but she is by Frankel and his progeny are usually able to handle an ease. There is a lot of fast ground performers on the dam side of her pedigree but at 22/1 I think it is worth chancing that she handles it.

Friday Live ITV Tips: Ghaaliya E/W @ 22/1

Friday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 3.00pm – Bet365 Trophy Handicap (Class 2)

A total of 17 horses will go to post in this 14f handicap and it looks an open heat. The one I am going to take a chance on in this at big odds is Dubai Horizon. This son of Poet’s Voice has run well on easy ground a couple of times, including when beating Mountain Angel on good to soft at Sandown a couple of years ago. He has mostly run in Meydan since then and his best run there came over today’s trip of 14f behind Secret Advisor off 104.

Saeed Bin Suroor’s charge was entitled to need his run at Ascot last time when he finished down the field. Josephine Gordon is on board and she has a superb record for Bin Suroor (18 winners and 24 top 4 finishes from just 60 rides). That is a frame hitting strike rate of 70% and Gordon will be keen to strike another blow for the girls after Hollie Doyle’s big win on Thursday. Of just 3lb higher than when beating Mountain Angel (giving 5lb), Dubai Horizon is the e/w pick at 28/1.

Friday Live ITV Tips: Dubai Horizon E/W @ 28/1 nb (5 Places)

ITV Live Selections: Newmarket 3.35pm – Bet365 Handicap (Group 3)

This 10f handicap sees 13 go to post and the one it is hard to ignore here is Grand Rock. By Acclamation, this fella absolutely loves to get his toe in. The recent rain will be right up his street and he has the assistance of Pierre Charles Boudot in the saddle. Trained by William Haggas, this horse ran a lovely race on his return to action at Royal Ascot. He was only 4.5L behind the winner Highland Chief and he is in off the same rating here.

This horse has only had five career runs so he is still unexposed. Both his wins came on heavy and he ran well to be 3rd in a Listed heat on soft on his final start of last season. William Haggas said he was too fresh for his comeback run and that should have put him spot on for this. Trip and ground look ideal, a top jockey is in the plate and at odds of 10/1 Grand Rock is the e/w NAP of the day.

Friday Live ITV Tips: Grand Rock E/W @ 10/1 Nap (4 Places)

Friday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 4.10pm – Falmouth Stakes (Group 2)

The big race of the day on Friday at Newmarket is the Falmouth Stakes. An 8f Group 1 for fillies and mares, only 6 go to post. Terebellum is the odds on favourite and she ran a huge race behind Circus Maximus at Ascot last time out. She handles soft, Frankie rides and she looks a worthy favourite. If I had to back one here it would be Billesdon Brook as she too will like the ground and for a horse with her ability and track record 16/1 looks a big price. However, with just 2 places each way this is a race I’ll be just watching. No bet.

Friday Live ITV Tips: No Bet