Thursday Live ITV Tips from York and Newmarket
Thursday Live ITV Tips From York and Newmarket
It was a half decent day for us on Sunday with a winner and a place. Caspian Prince tried to make all and though he was hampered, he was going backwards anyway. Hurricane Dream ran well, as did Order Of Australia in the French Derby but neither managed to place. However, Fancy Blue made up for the disappointment for us at 11/1 in the Prix de Diane, landing a first Classic for Donnacha O’Brien. Via Serendipity got there too soon, but Le Don La Vie placed for us at 12/1. Enable was beat but we were on the wrong one in Japan. The Dante and July festivals start tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Thursday live ITV tips for York and Newmarket below…
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 1.50pm – Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed)
No prizes for guessing who my selection for this race is. Probably one of the most talented 11 race maidens ever, Ropey Guest has rarely let us down for each way purposes. He ran a cracker on his seasonal return to be 4th in the G3 Jersey Stakes at Ascot (7f sft). We were on for 4 places at 33s but unfortunately he is not as big today. However, 14/1 is still a very nice price for a horse dropping in class who has strong course form in the book.
Ropey Guest was only beat 4L in a G2 here last season and his form on the Rowley course is rock solid too. He is best when finishing late off a strong pace and that looks to be assured here. Four of his rivals like to get on with things so they could well set it up for a closer. If Tom Queally can thread a clear passage I can see Ropey Guest staying on to challenge for a place, at least. Hopefully he drifts on the day but even at 16/1 he is worth backing each way.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Ropey Guest E/W @ 16/1 NAP
ITV Live Selections: York 2.05pm – Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
A 5f contest for 3yo fillies, this Listed race has attracted a field of 9. A two race maiden in Sardinia Sunset heads the market. This daughter of Guitafan possesses the strongest form in the race, a 4.5L 4th in the G2 Queen Mary. The 3rd in that race Caroline Dale hosed up in a weak Novice at Windsor on her next start. However, the 8th Mamba Wamba (1.5L behind Sardinia Sunset) was beat in a class 5 Novice at Thirsk on her next outing. The quality of that form is still up for debate and at odds of 22/1 I’ll be taking a chance on Furlong Factor here.
Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on this daughter of Adaay who is in the care of Rod Millman. He has a decent record at York with 8 winners from 64 runners and over 500k in prize money. This filly has improved with every start and hacked up last time at Chepstow by over 2L (5f gd). She travelled sweetly and one tap of the whip was enough to see her score easily. This is clearly harder but Rod Millman doesn’t often tilt at windmills. Additionally, her pedigree suggests that rain shouldn’t be a problem if it comes. At odds of 22/1 Furlong Factor is worthy of a small each way bet.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Furlong Factor E/W @ 22/1
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 2.25pm – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Listed)
This 1m 5f Group 3 for 3yos only has attracted a field of 8. There is plenty of rain forecast before and during racing and Al Aasy is proven on soft. William Haggas’ charge won by 10L last time on the Rowley course on soft (12f). Another furlong should pose no problems for the son of Sea The Stars. He is clearly a very promising horse and he will have plenty of supporters at odds of around 5/2. The rain is a big worry for Dawn Rising if it arrives. He was well beat the only time he ran on easy ground.
One that could go well at a bigger price for each-way players is Sound Of Cannons. Trained by Brian Meehan, this son of Nathaniel has pulled too hard on both starts this season. He needs to settle better and the application of a hood could help in that department. He has form on both good and soft ground so he won’t mind what the weather does and PJ McDonald keeps the faith. Sound Of Cannons could sneak into the frame if the hood works and at 20/1 he is the e/w pick.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Sound Of Canons E/W @ 20/1
ITV Live Selections: York 2.40pm – Musidora Stakes (Group 3)
Another Group 3, this time over 10.5f for 3yo fillies only. Franconia was withdrawn early on Wednesday so only 8 will run. The top three in the market all have form on easy ground which could be crucial with 20mm of rain forecast. However, another one with form on both quick and soft ground is Rose Of Kildare and she looked like she would relish another furlong or two on her last outing when 3rd in a G3 at Epsom (8.5f).
It was a similar story on her previous outing at Dusseldorf. She stayed on strongly to push for 2nd (8f gd) in the German Guineas. Mark Johnston’s filly ran really well on her only previous run at York so there are no worries about the track. She is consistent and has been in the first 4 on 12 of her 15 starts (5 wins). Mark Johnston’s filly is also the joint second highest rated in the race (103). At odds 12/1 she holds solid e/w claims.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Rose Of Kildare E/W @ 12/1
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 3.00pm – July Stakes (Group 2)
Ten will go to post for this 6f Group 3 for 2yos and it is a fascinating renewal. The one I like at a nice price is Victory Heights for James Tate and PJ McDonald. This son of Siyouni ran really well in the Windsor Castle at Ascot (5f gd). He stayed on strongly from the rear after suffering interference early and was only 4L behind the winner at the finish. His pedigree suggests that stepping up in trip to 6f will suit, as did his finishing effort last time.
He is by up and coming sire Siyouni and his two winning half siblings both stayed at least 6f. When you consider the ground this colt lost at the start at Ascot and the fact he was drawn 4 and finished on the near side, that performance has to be marked up massively. The experience should stand to him too and at odds of 22/1 Victory Heights is the e/w NB bet of the day.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Victory Heights E/W @ 22/1 NB
ITV Live Selections: York 3.15pm – Dante Stakes (Group 3)
Frustratingly only 6 horses contest the big race of the day at York, the Group 2 Dante Stakes. Regular readers of the blog might remember me tipping up Al Madhar ante-post for the 2000 Guineas. A setback ruled him out but he returned with a decent win in a 10f Novice heat at Newbury. That was a weaker contest than the one he won on debut but his stamina is assured, he is a straightforward type and he is versatile regarding ground.
Highest Ground boasts a similar profile to Al Madhar, unbeaten after a couple of starts. He looked very good when beating a decent type at Haydock last time but his odds are very short. Juan Elcano ran a huge race in the 2000 Guineas and wasn’t disgraced last time at Ascot over 10f. Thunderous and Cormorant are two other horses to note. However, with just 2 places for e/w bets I’ll be sitting this one out. No bet.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: No bet
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 3.35pm – Bet365 Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
This 6f Heritage Handicap for 3yos only has attracted a maximum field of 20. Some bookies are paying out on 5 places so I’ll be backing one each way at nice odds. The one I like at a massive price is Golden Dragon for Stuart Williams and Jim Crowley. This son of Starspangledbanner has some strong 2yo form in the book, including in a G3 on the Rowley course here last season (5f gd/sft). He previously won a pair of quick ground novices at Windsor over 5f and 6f but his comeback at Royal Ascot was underwhelming.
Golden Dragon could never land a blow from stall 10 that day but high numbers were favoured and I am putting a line through that run. The handicapper dropped him 2lbs to 95 and on his G3 effort here last year that could be generous. He had the likes of Platinum Star and Lazuli behind that day and both of them are now rated 100+. Golden Dragon will start from stall 1 and there is plenty of early pace around him so he should get a good tow into the race. At odds of 40/1 Golden Dragon is worth backing e/w for small stakes.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Golden Dragon E/W @ 40/1 (5 Places)
ITV Tips: Newmarket 4.10pm – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 2)
The final race we look at on Thursday is the 12f Group 2 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Enbihaar heads the market for Crowley and Gosden but any rain would be a worry. All his best form has come on good to firm and he wasn’t as effective on his only start on easier ground. The one to be interested in here on her return to action is Dame Maillot for Ed Vaughan and Hollie Doyle. This 4yo daughter of Champs Elysees is 1/1 over C&D and her stable is going well.
Ed Vaughan has had a couple of winners in the past fortnight and one of those was first time out. This filly scored in a heavy ground G2 in Deauville on her penultimate start of the season last year before flopping on fast ground behind Enbihaar. Once there is no firm in the description here I think Dame Maillot is capable of getting a lot closer to the favourite and at odds of 12/1 she is the each way selection.
Thursday Live ITV Tips: Dame Maillot E/W @ 12/1