Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips by Dave Stevos
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips
We had to make do with one place at 16s on Saturday but what an afternoon it was. Tommy’s Oscar booked his place in the Champion Hurdle with a superb win. That was just a taster though as the highlight was undoubtedly the Clarence House. Energumene had the run of the race and was allowed lead at his own pace. Shishkin didn’t travel or jump like he usually does but he showed the heart of a lion to get up late and win. It is hard to see a different outcome in March. Hopefully, some of our bets show similar fortitude tomorrow. Check out our Lingfield and Thurles Sunday tips below.
1.20 Lingfield – Winter Million Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)
It was a struggle for us on Friday at Lingfield and I am blaming the ground. It might be described as heavy but it was like glue and even previous heavy ground winners struggled to go on it. The racing surface is likely to be similar on Sunday and it will be a bit of a lottery as to who copes best in the conditions.
This 23f trip will take some getting and I think the fav, Ballygriffincottage could be vulnerable. He is yet to race on softer than yielding and he didn’t finish very strongly over 3 miles at Cheltenham (gd/sft). That was his rules debut and he was back from a break so maybe it was tiredness more than stamina that was the issue last time. Even so, 7/4 looks far too short.
Irish raider Fameaftertheglory has run well in a couple of maiden hurdles, including on heavy last time. However, just like his main market rival, he finished weakly over 21f so the trip today is a big worry. One horse who has won on heavy and over 3 miles (in a P2P admittedly) is Crossing Lines.
Step Up In Trip To Suit
This 8yo son of Jeremy won his last P2P in 2019 and he must have had issues because he only made his rules bow 780 days later. He actually ran a lovely race at Chepstow (19f hvy), finishing 3rd just 5L behind Dom Of Mary. That horse reopposes here and I think over this trip, the Pipe horse could get a lot closer. Crossing Lines travelled really well last time but he just couldn’t quicken with the other two horses 3f out.
However, after that initial burst of speed he actually didn’t lose any more ground and I thought he ran through the line really well. Dom Of Mary had the benefit of a recent run before that race but Crossing Lines will be a lot sharper and fitter now. The step up to 23f should really suit the son of Jeremy too. There is always a chance of the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ when a horse has his second run after a long layoff but I think that at odds of 25/1, it is worth taking that risk for small stakes. Crossing Lines is the e/w selection.
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips: Crossing Lines e/w @ 25/1
1.50 Lingfield – Novices’ Chase (Class 2)
Currently five remain in this race but Shakem Up’Arry is unlikely to run after his 3rd at Haydock on Saturday. There are three horses at the top of the market and two of them have previously won on heavy. Faivoir won a Haydock G2 on bad ground a year ago and Il Ridoto won a hurdle race in France. The narrow favourite War Lord has won on soft but was beaten his only start on heavy. The rank outsider Richidish is impossible to fancy and he is surely aiming to pick up some prize money by completing the race. With no each way betting and no value, this is a race for watching. No bet.
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips: No Bet
2.25 Lingfield – Weatherbys Hurdle (Class 2)
Another crap turnout for this £100k race with just three runners. Brewin’upastorm is on a retrieval mission after his fall last time. He has never won on worse than soft and he was beat 20L his only run on heavy. Goshen is a mercurial horse and you never know what you will get from him. He is guaranteed to go on the ground though and if he is in the mood they might not see which way he goes.
Darver Star is one of the most disappointing horses in training for me. I expected him to be a top class operator after he ran so well in the Champion Hurdle but it hasn’t materialised. He at least got back to winning ways last time, scoring by 20L at Punchestown. Will he back that up? I am not too sure as he is far from reliable. Another race that makes zero appeal from a betting perspective.
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips: No Bet
2.40 Thurles – Novices Chase (Grade 2)
We backed Darrens Hope over the Xmas period and she ran a cracker in 2nd, 4L behind Concertista. The ground was very testing at Limerick for that 22f chase and she has to deal with better ground and a shorter distance today. However, I don’t think the ground is that much of a negative. She has had four runs on ground with good in the description and she won two of them (one was a P2P). Darren Murphy’s mare also finished a fine 2nd to subsequent Cheltenham winner Telmesomethinggirl at Limerick on good (20f).
Ballyshannon Rose is an 11/2 shot here but Darren’s Hope gave her 3lbs and a 3L beating when they met at Limerick in March of last year. Ian Power, who steered Master McShee to victory for us over Christmas, keeps the ride and he knows this mare well. I don’t think Jeremy’s Flame sets that high of a standard and odds of 15/2 about Darren’s Hope look pretty generous. She is the each way selection.
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips: Darren’s Hope e/w @ 15/2 NAP
3.00 Lingfield – Fleur De Lys Chase (Grade 2)
This is a top quality contest with some seriously talented horses taking each other on. Dashel Drasher returns to chasing after a gutsy handicap hurdle last time. He will enjoy the trip and the ground and he is going to be very tough to pass. Bristol De Mai will love the ground too but he is an 11yo now and his last two efforts were poor. However, they came on good to soft so he could well bounce back. The main worry for him is the fact that he hasn’t won at shorter than 24f since 2016.
Itchy Feet is another useful sort and he has been knocking on the door in recent runs. His last start on heavy saw him beat 2L by Dashel Drasher at Ascot and a similar fate could await him today. Master Tommytucker also has 2L to find with the Scott horse on their meeting at Ascot a year ago. The one that could surprise with a big run at a price is Lieutenant Rocco.
This son of Shirocco is having his first run of the season. He was last sighted winning a heavy ground Novice at Ffos Las (24f hvy). He absolutely relishes it when the mud is flying and he has won his three starts on heavy by a combined distance of 28L. His fitness has to be taken on trust but his record on heavy ground is good enough to warrant an e/w interest at 20/1.
Lingfield and Thurles Sunday Tips: Lieutenant Rocco e/w @ 20/1 (3 places Hills)
3.35 Lingfield – Surrey National Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Fifteen are due to go to post for this marathon and it will be a proper slog. Off a mark of 122, Seaston Spirit could stay on for place money. This horse ticks a number of boxes for this race. He loves heavy ground, his stamina is assured and he is well handicapped. A year ago he landed the biggest race of his career, the 29f Sussex National at Plumpton. Oliver Sherwood’s charge landed that prize off 125 and he is now 3lbs lower.
On the downside, he has run three times this year (including in the Sussex) and he has been pulled up twice. In his defence, the ground may not have been testing enough for him and he should be happier in the mud at Lingfield. His sole win at the track (23.5f hvy) resulted in a wide margin win off 98 so he has winning course form in the book and Sam Twiston Davies had a sighter on him at Sandown. Hopefully, the return to bottomless ground sparks him back to form and he can nick some place money at 28/1.
