Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips – DS

by | Dec 28, 2021

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips

It was a mixed day for us on Tuesday but at least we got a winner on the board with Panda Boy at 18/1. Darrens Hope lost no caste in defeat, landing place money at 16s. Commander Of Fleet was found out by a furious gallop and Franco De Port’s jumping let him down. Halsafari paid the price for trying to go up the inner on dreadful ground. There is more Grade 1 action on both sides of the Irish Sea tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday tips below.

1.25 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 3)

The one I like in this at a big price is Beaufort West. Andy Irvine trains this son of Getaway and Niall Houlihan takes off a handy 5lbs. That means Beaufort West is effectively in off 113 and he could be dangerous off that mark. He made his seasonal bow just eight days ago at Ascot. He was sent off at 100/1 for that 20f handicap hurdle and he was never put into the race. Irvine’s charge now returns to chasing at his optimum distance.

His last three runs have come over that 20f trip but he doesn’t stay that far. He is best at around 2 miles and he was an excellent 2nd off 128 the last time he raced over 16f on testing ground. His career form figures at 16f/17f on soft/heavy over obstacles read 146P212. Another plus is his form at Newbury. He ran well in two hurdles here when with the Tizzards and the second one was contested by the likes of Rathhill, Pistol Whipped and Dashel Drasher. Niall Houlihan is 4/18 for Irvine with 5 top 4 finishes and at odds of 33/1, Beaufort West is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: Beaufort West e/w @ 33/1 (4 places Hills)

1.45 Leopardstown – Novice Chase (Grade 1)

This is an intriguing Grade 1 Chase for the Novices and hopefully all eight go to post. Vanillier is edging favouritism for Cromwell and Donoghue. Last year’s Albert Bartlett hero made a satisfactory chase debut at Down Royal in October when 3rd to Lifetime Ambition. Last time out he stepped into G2 company and he hacked up at Punchestown (22f yld). He has no trip or ground concerns today but he lacks experience in comparison to Run Wild Fred.

Gordon Elliott’s 7yo has a very different profile. He has been running in top class handicaps and he was 2nd in both the Thyestes and Irish National. The son of Shantou was a Grade 3 winner over timber at Punchestown but he only had four starts in that sphere. He has had nine chase runs now and while only one was a win, his form is top class. He dotted up off 145 at Navan last time out (24f gd) and if he backs that up, he is going to be hard to beat.

Ground to Suit Max

One that could go well at a massive price is Max Flamingo for Francis Casey. PJ O’Hanlon gets a big chance aboard this 6yo son of Kalanisi and he has steered him to 2nd in two decent beginners’ chases the last twice. The first of those Fairyhouse runs (21f gd/yld) saw him get to within 2.25L of the classy Gabynako. Subsequent G1 placed Fury Road was just a short head in front of him in 2nd. Next time at the same track he found just Lieutenant Command too good.

On that first Fairyhouse run there is no way Fury Road should be 13/2 and Max Flamingo 28s. Yes, the Casey horse will be 7lbs worse off with him but he would have beaten him over further that day. Max Flamingo won his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown so there are no worries about the track and yielding ground is fine. It’ll be 10 years in January since Flemenstar won a G1 Novice here for Peter Casey, hopefully Max Flamingo can carry on the family tradition. At odds of 28/1, he is the e/w pick.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: Max Flamingo e/w @ 28/1 NB

2.00 Newbury –Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Dashel Drasher is the class horse in this race. A prolific Grade 1 winning chaser, he is looking to exploit a 13lb lower mark back in a handicap hurdle. He had seven starts over hurdles as a younger horse, winning four and finishing out of the first three just once. His last outing over timber came in a Novice at Cheltenham (20f gd) where he gave away weight and won easily by 3.5L.

In March 2019 he won a C&D novice hurdle, giving Remastered 4lbs and a 4L beating. On his seasonal reappearance Dashel Drasher shaped as though he needed the run. He didn’t jump as fluently as he can do either so clearly connections want to give him a confidence booster back in calmer waters. This isn’t a bad race but if Jeremy Scott’s charge runs to even 90% of his ability he’ll win this doing handstands off 149. At odds of 11//2, Dashel Drasher is worth backing for the win.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: Dashel Drasher win @ 11/2

2.20 Leopardstown – Matheson Hurdle (Grade 1)

Just six will go to post for this 16f Grade 1 hurdle and it makes no appeal as a betting heat. Sharjah looked as good as ever when winning on his return at Punchestown. He is a class act on his day and only Honeysuckle proved too good for him in his last two Grade 1 starts of 2021. He was only 2.25L behind the star mare at Punchestown and if he repeats that, he wins easily.

Zanahiyr had a fitness edge on Sharjah at Punchestown yet he was swatted aside by the winner. Echoes in Rain could be the one for the forecast. Her comeback was woeful but if she can get back to the form she showed when beating Colonel Mustard, she might nick second. However, I am keeping the powder dry here. No bet.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: No Bet

2.55 Leopardstown – Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-130)

Gavin Cromwell has won two of the last three renewals of this race. He throws three darts this year but they are all single figure odds. At a big price, maybe Sweet Street can sneak into the money for Sean O’Keefe and Roger McGrath. This 6yo daughter of Sholokov is 33/1 after a poor run over 24f at Cork last time. That trip on testing ground was never likely to suit and the drop back to 20f on yielding should be much more up her street.

Just two starts ago this mare ran a blinder in a decent Novice at Fairyhouse (20f gd). She finished 3rd, just 3L behind the winner Chemical Energy (rated 132) in receipt of 4lbs and 1.5L behind subsequent Listed winner and G2 placed Lunar Display (now rated 132) in receipt of 10lbs. Her only previous visit to Leopardstown was back in March of this year and she ran a huge race behind Royal Illusion. She finished 5L behind the winner off levels and on those two runs, 116 looks a more than workable rating.

Yielding ground or quicker suits this mare well and while she was admittedly beaten on her handicap debut at Roscommon off 105, she has improved since then. Sean O’Keefe had a sighter on her in a Listed hurdle at Limerick (21f sft) when she finished 4th. Hopefully he learned plenty from that experience. If this mare reproduces her Fairyhouse form, she is more than capable of hitting the frame here at odds of 33/1.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: Sweet Street e/w @ 33/1 NAP (6 Places)

3.05 Newbury – Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The last three winners of this race were pretty decent animals. Bravemansgame, Thyme Hill and Champ have all gone on to be top class horses, is there anything as good as them in this renewal? I’m not too sure. Stage Star has made a solid start over hurdles after showing decent form in bumpers. He has landed a maiden at Chepstow (19f gd) and he then added a novice over today’s C&D on good to soft. Testing ground would be a slight worry but he is definitely a promising sort. Would I back him at 13/8? No, especially as Lossiemouth has arguably achieved more.

Tom Lacey’s fast improving son of Makfi has won his last three starts. The first was a handicap at Ascot (19f sft) off 117. Next, he won by 10L off 123 at Ffos Las (22f sft). Last time out he stepped into G2 company and destroyed the field by 14L at Sandown (20f gd/sft). He has improved 34lbs in the space of three months and his progression may not be done yet. Of the top two, I’d prefer to be on him at 7/2.

First Irish Trained Winner?

Amazingly, no Irish trainer has ever won this race. The last one to try was Gordon Elliott in 2016 with Baltazar D’Allier. He could only manage 2nd and he’ll hope that Gringo D’aubrelle can go one better for him today. This 5yo son of Saddler Maker is 1/2 over hurdles, his only reversal coming at Galway when he found the hugely promising Blazing Khal too good. That form has been well advertised and he made no mistake when landing his next maiden hurdle start at Fairyhouse a month ago. He only won by 0.75L but in truth, it was a lot easier than that.

It is probably because of the narrow margin of that victory that he is 4/1 today. That Blazing Khal form sticks out like a sore thumb and if he had won by further at Fairyhouse he’d probably be half his current price. This trip on soft ground should be perfect for him and Denis O’Regan has travelled over to ride. I think that he has the best piece of form in this race, so a small win bet is advised. Nothing makes much appeal at bigger prices, unfortunately.

Newbury and Leopardstown Wednesday Tips: Gringo D’aubrelle @ 4/1

-DaveStevos

 

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