Newbury Friday Tips For ITV4 Races by Dave Stevos

by | Nov 28, 2019

Newbury Friday Preview of Live ITV4 Races

The Troytown Chase didn’t quite go to plan for us last Sunday at Navan. Gun Digger’s form with Chris’s Dream proved strong, unfortunately he didn’t replicate it and was pulled up. At least Mr Diablo gave us a serious run for our money. Given his position jumping the last, I still can’t believe he didn’t place! He has a big one in him and he is a horse I’d love to see in the Grand Sefton at Aintree. The focus switches to Newbury this weekend where the Ladbrokes Trophy is the big one. ITV4 are broadcasting 4 races live on Friday. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newbury Friday tips below…

Newbury Friday Tips: 1.50pm Handicap Chase (Class 2)

The first live race of the day on ITV4 from Newbury is a 20f handicap chase. There is plenty of Graded form in this contest and proven pattern performers Kalashnikov and Glen Forsa head the market. The former has to carry top weight but he did shape well on his seasonal return behind Forest Bihan. He is a previous course winner on soft, winning the Betfair Hurdle here off 141. He is 14lb higher now over fences and the heavy weight may prove too big a burden.

Glen Forsa has flopped since smashing Kalashnikov at Sandown, unseating at Cheltenham and pulling up at Aintree. A big leap of faith is required to fancy him, even If he is clearly a talented horse. At the prices, Spiritofthegames could be worth giving another chance to. He flopped on his seasonal return, his first run since having a wind op.

Spiritofthegames is only a pound higher than when a super 3rd at Cheltenham last season in the Brown Advisory Plate (20f gd/sft). He was pulled up last time at that track in the BetVictor Gold Cup, but horses often need a run or two after a wind op to regain confidence in their breathing. Maybe he might need another one, but if he is back to his best he could run a massive race. At odds of 16/1 Spiritofthegames is worth chancing each way for small stakes.

NEWBURY FRIDAY TIPS: SPIRITOFTHEGAMES E/W @ 16/1

Newbury Friday : 2.25pm – Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Another 20f race that may be short on quantity but that is full of quality. One of last year’s hype horses Champ is back in action after his impressive reappearance win. He beat Dashel Drasher by over 3L that day here over 22.5f, but over 20f the Jeremy Scott horse could get a lot closer. He too was having his first run back and he had to deal with losing both his front shoes.

Dashel Drasher likes it at Newbury and his form figures here read 3412. The win came over 20f on good to soft, his sole start here at today’s distance. Matt Griffiths is an underrated jockey and he gets a great tune out of this fella. He will send him on early and hopefully he can gallop the finishing kicks out of his rivals. I don’t think he should be 10/1 given the misfortune that befell him last time and at those odds he represents each way value against the fav.

NEWBURY FRIDAY TIPS: DASHEL DRASHER E/W @ 10/1 NAP

Newbury Friday Tips: 3.00pm – Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2)

As the betting suggests, this race is all about one horse. Cheltenham Stayers’ hurdle  hero Paisley Park is back and he is the one to beat. His form stands up to scrutiny and his supporters will be buoyed by the fact he won first time out last season. However, if he is going to be beaten this season this is the most likely day. Emma Lavelle will be working backwards from March with his racing program and this race will not be near the top of his list of targets.

If it is the case that Paisley Park is undercooked for his return that could open the door for his rivals. The one to benefit if he does need the run is The Worlds End. This 8yo won very well last time at Wetherby, proving his ability to handle an ease. He could face competition for the lead from good old Beer Goggles, but he could need the run badly after 671 days off. With race fitness on his side The Worlds End looks a shade overpriced at 6/1. He should give each way backers a big run for their money.

NEWBURY FRIDAY  TIPS: THE WORLDS END E/W @ 6/1

Newbury Preview: 3.35pm – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

The final live ITV4 race of the day is an ultra competitive 24f handicap hurdle. 18 will go to post and a case can be made for plenty. One For The Team is a horse I have had my eye on for some time and he is a fascinating runner. Nicky Richards trains this son of Shirocco and on a couple of pieces of form he looks thrown in off 126. With Chester Williams claiming 5lb, he holds serious claims on handicap debut. Unfortunately though, the bookies have not missed him and he is only an 8/1 shot.

With extra places on offer I would prefer chancing one at bigger odds and at a price, Debestyman could go well. This son of Mahler won his Novice at Plumpton on his final run of last season (20f sft). His trainer Suzy Smith was quite sweet on him after that win and his mark of 121 could be workable. He was beat out of sight on his handicap debut off that rating on his return at Plumpton over 20f. The heavy ground likely conspired against him and in any case, it was probably a pipe opener for this.

Suzy Smith has a very good frame hitting strike rate at Newbury considering the ammunition at her disposal. From a total of 35 runners she has had 3 winners and 13 top 4 finishers (43%). Michael Nolan has a superb record for her too with 8 winners and 12 top 4 finishes from 39 rides (51%). Debestyman has won a P2P on soft over 3 miles and his dam is a half sister to a dual 24f hurdle winner. Mahler is a decent stamina influence and the way he won at Plumpton suggests this 3 mile trip will suit too. At odds of 33/1 Debestyman is the each way pick with 5 places available.

 

NEWBURY FRIDAY TIPS:  DEBESTYMAN E/W @ 33/1 NB 5 PLACES

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